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Ahead of his Gulf trip, Trump may meet Syrian President al-Sharaa in Saudi Arabia amid talks on sanctions relief. Meanwhile, Algeria expels more French diplomats in escalating row, and Norway transfers Arctic Council leadership. 

In Beijing, Latin American leaders signal a shift toward China during high-level visits.

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Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Russia seeks diplomatic leverage through Iran-U.S. nuclear talks: Moscow views indirect nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States as a constructive step to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons and to avoid potential military strikes that could destabilise the region. Moscow supports diplomacy to preserve regional stability, limit U.S. military activity near its southern borders, and reinforce its global role after setbacks in Syria and Ukraine. By facilitating talks, Russia hopes to regain diplomatic standing and influence over broader geopolitical issues, including the Ukraine conflict. Despite concerns that renewed Iran-U.S. engagement could weaken Moscow-Tehran ties, Russia still endorses the dialogue as a means to project itself as a key powerbroker and counterbalance to U.S. hegemony.

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇧🇷 🇨🇴 🇨🇱 Lula, Petro, and Boric travel to Beijing as Latin America pivots toward China: Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has called for “indestructible” ties with China during a visit to Beijing, where he criticised Trump’s tariff policies and praised China’s global trade role. Colombia’s Gustavo Petro and Chile’s Gabriel Boric also travelled to Beijing for a CELAC-China meeting, signalling a broader regional pivot toward Beijing amid U.S. retreat from multilateralism. Lula, whose officials announced $4.6bn in new Chinese investment, is expected to seek further infrastructure deals in a meeting with Xi Jinping. Experts say the visits reflect Latin American efforts to navigate a shifting global order by forging stronger economic and diplomatic partnerships outside the U.S.-centric system.

3️⃣ 🇧🇦 🇪🇺 Sarajevo needs EU support amid Republika Srpska crisis, say analysts: Bosnia faces its most severe political crisis since the 1990s, as Serb leader Milorad Dodik defies state authority following his criminal conviction. Dodik has blocked national institutions in Republika Srpska, expelled foreign diplomats, and rejected constitutional norms his own party once upheld. While dangerous, this crisis presents an opportunity: Dodik’s arrest—ideally backed by EUFOR—could reaffirm the rule of law and state integrity. Opposition parties in Republika Srpska and Sarajevo agree he must go. His removal could unlock overdue constitutional reforms and accelerate Bosnia’s EU and NATO integration. Analysts argue that EU powers must back Sarajevo’s legal efforts and pressure regional spoilers to step back. Inaction risks normalising secessionist defiance; decisive support now could finally shift Bosnia toward stability, democracy, and lasting peace.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 U.S., China agree 90 day 115% tariff slash: Stock futures surged after the US and China agreed to a 90-day pause in their trade war, reducing tariffs imposed on each other’s goods. The U.S. dropped its levies on Chinese imports to 30% from 145%, while China lowered its duties on American products to 10% from 125%. The truce, reached during weekend talks in Switzerland, drove the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq futures up by 3.2%, 2.5%, and 4% respectively, with global markets also rallying. Analysts welcomed the move as a major de-escalation, though they warned that broader trade tensions and elevated tariffs still cloud the outlook.

5️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇵🇰 Modi warns of future retaliation as India-Pakistan ceasefire holds: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said India has only "paused" its military action against Pakistan and would respond on its own terms to any future attacks, following a US-brokered ceasefire over the weekend. In his first remarks since missile and drone strikes between the two nuclear-armed nations, Modi denied US mediation claims, stating Pakistan had initiated the truce and international outreach. While the ceasefire, announced by President Trump, has largely held, with reduced border tensions and reopened airports, Modi warned against “nuclear blackmailing” and said future talks would only address terrorism and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Both sides have agreed to reduce troop deployments and resume communication through military hotlines.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇸🇦 🇦🇪 🇶🇦 FLASHY DEALS, NO MEANINGFUL REGIONAL PROGRESS THE LIKELY OUTCOME OF TRUMP’S GULF VISIT

Eight years after his 2017 visit, President Donald Trump returns to the Gulf this week, touring Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha to deepen economic and defence ties. The region he revisits has changed dramatically—Gulf states now assert greater diplomatic independence, pursue pragmatic regional engagement, and seek strategic partnerships beyond traditional alliances. Yet the ongoing war in Gaza casts a long shadow over the visit, complicating efforts to expand on the Abraham Accords or push for Arab-Israeli normalization.

Gaza, Diplomacy, and Regional Friction

Trump’s presence coincides with intensified Israeli operations in Gaza, Emirati sponsorship of the war in Sudan, and surging discontent in Riyadh and Doha over Western double standards. While Gulf leaders are engaged in post-conflict planning and hostage negotiations, they remain wary of being drawn further into a conflict that has fueled domestic anger and undermined regional de-escalation. With Israel preparing for further escalation, Saudi Arabia has made clear that normalisation hinges on a political path toward Palestinian statehood.

Iran, Yemen, and Redefining Security

The trip also revisits Trump’s Iran policy. Gulf states once backed his withdrawal from the JCPOA but were frustrated by his reluctance to counter Tehran militarily. Now, despite lingering mistrust, they support renewed nuclear talks and seek to exploit Iran’s regional vulnerabilities. Recent US-Houthi de-escalation, brokered via Oman, could revive peace prospects in Yemen, while Iran’s setbacks in Syria and Lebanon present opportunities for Gulf rebalancing.

Economic Ambitions and Defence Deals

The core of Trump’s visit will be economic: Saudi Arabia has pledged $600 billion in US investments, while the UAE plans to inject $1.4 trillion. Deals are expected in AI, energy, semiconductors, and manufacturing. Simultaneously, Gulf states are seeking enhanced defence cooperation—Saudi Arabia for nuclear access, the UAE for AI leadership, and Qatar to advance its diplomatic relevance. The trip may yield flashy deals, but tangible diplomatic breakthroughs remain uncertain.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇳🇴 🇬🇱 Norway hands over leadership of Arctic Council: Norway is set to transfer the Arctic Council chair to Greenland after two turbulent years marked by geopolitical strain over Russia’s war in Ukraine and Donald Trump’s provocative Greenland rhetoric. Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide acknowledged limited progress but praised the council’s ability to maintain unity among all eight Arctic states despite global tensions. The chair handover, formally Denmark’s role, was symbolically passed to Greenland as Copenhagen seeks to rebuild trust with the autonomous territory. While future challenges loom—rising U.S.-Russia hostility, Trump’s revived claims, and China’s growing Arctic interest—Eide stressed the importance of preserving the council as a united circumpolar platform amid escalating global instability.

2️⃣ 🇩🇿 🇫🇷 🇪🇭 Algeria expels more French diplomats as tensions escalate: France has pledged a swift and proportional response after Algeria expelled a new group of French diplomatic staff, citing procedural violations. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot condemned the move as unjustified and harmful to both nations' interests. The expulsions, part of an escalating crisis over espionage allegations and conflicting positions on Western Sahara, follow tit-for-tat diplomatic actions and growing mistrust. Tensions deepened after France backed Morocco’s autonomy plan, arrested an Algerian diplomat in Paris, and allegedly delayed accreditation for Algerian consuls, prompting Algiers to accuse Paris of repeated diplomatic misconduct.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇸🇾 Trump may meet al-Sharaa in Saudi Arabia amid sanctions talks: US President Donald Trump is reportedly preparing to meet Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa during his upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia, alongside Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun. Sharaa, who came to power after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, remains designated a terrorist by the U.S. but is seeking a reset in relations, with sanctions relief as his top priority. In return, he is expected to offer economic concessions and potentially allow a demilitarised zone near the Golan Heights, with a limited Israeli security presence. The proposed meeting has stirred debate within the Trump administration, though quiet preparatory talks are underway in Riyadh.

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