Geopolitics Daily
Posts
📰 Lavrov in South Africa

📰 Lavrov in South Africa

and U.S. firms want minerals

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
February 21, 2025

Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

In the Middle East, regional leaders worry that Iraq could become the next flashpoint in the ongoing crisis, while Iran weighs Saudi Arabia’s potential role in mediating with the United States.

Meanwhile, Niger’s junta considers a transition to democratic rule, the G20 meets in Johannesburg, and the U.S. pressures Zelenskyy to resume negotiations over a critical minerals deal.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇿🇦 Lavrov in attendance, Rubio absent, as G20 leaders convene in Johannesburg: The G20 foreign ministers convene in South Africa for a two-day summit, with discussions expected to focus on conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. However, nations from the Global South—including Brazil, India, and South Africa—are pushing for reforms in global governance, stronger climate action, and more equitable economic development. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa urged member states to uphold multilateralism and diplomatic solutions, warning that geopolitical tensions, climate change, and economic instability threaten global cooperation. The absence of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlights a growing rift between Washington and its allies, as President Trump’s foreign policy shifts challenge transatlantic unity. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s presence underscores Moscow’s efforts to strengthen ties with Global South nations, while China seizes the opportunity to expand its influence amid U.S. disengagement.

2️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇶🇦 Syria’s energy crisis driving increased Qatari engagement with Damascus: Syria has struggled with severe energy shortages since the onset of civil war in 2011, with electricity generation and oil production significantly disrupted. The crisis has led to widespread hardship, including food insecurity and fatalities from unsafe heating methods. With the fall of Bashar al-Assad, regional states now have an opportunity to help stabilize Syria’s energy sector. Qatar, leveraging its strong ties with the country’s new leadership, has already deployed electricity-generating ships and may further assist by financing fuel imports and infrastructure projects. While rehabilitating Syria’s oil and gas industry remains a challenge due to security risks and sanctions, QatarEnergy could play a role in future investments.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 U.S. demands Zelenskyy return to talks over critical minerals deal: The Trump administration is pressuring Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to grant U.S. firms access to Ukraine’s vast mineral resources, a demand that has fueled growing tensions between the two leaders. Zelenskyy rejected the initial proposal, calling it an ultimatum without security guarantees, while Trump countered by branding him a dictator. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent personally pressed Zelenskyy to sign the deal, warning of consequences from Washington, but Zelenskyy remained noncommittal. As U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh proceed without Ukrainian involvement, concerns are mounting over Kyiv’s diminishing leverage, especially as Trump signals a potential shift in U.S. support. Meanwhile, Russia is reportedly exploring ways to exploit the rift by offering American companies rights to mineral deposits in occupied Ukraine.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇺🇳 🇨🇳 Implications of Trump’s UN rollback: Trump’s renewed hostility toward the UN has raised concerns that the U.S. is ceding ground to China in global institutions. Critics argue that decisions like exiting the WHO and freezing foreign aid create power vacuums that Beijing is eager to fill. However, while Trump’s disengagement allows China to expand influence in certain UN bodies, it also exposes Beijing to greater scrutiny and expectations. Despite increasing its financial contributions, China remains reluctant to fully lead multilateral institutions, particularly humanitarian agencies. Meanwhile, tensions between Washington and Beijing persist at the UN, with disputes over issues like Ukraine, AI governance, and Taiwan’s diplomatic recognition. As Trump’s new administration takes shape, diplomatic friction is expected to intensify, leaving the UN caught between two superpowers unwilling to fully invest in its future.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 Inside Deepseek’s geopolitical impact: Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping global power dynamics, with the U.S., EU, and China adopting different regulatory approaches. The U.S. champions a market-driven model, encouraging innovation with minimal oversight, while the EU enforces ethical AI regulations. China’s approach integrates AI with national strategies, prioritizing digital sovereignty. China's DeepSeek, with its open-source AI models, challenges the dominance of costly Western systems, enabling broader access to advanced technology. The rise of open-source AI models has global implications, democratizing innovation but raising concerns about misuse, such as cyberattacks or misinformation. These shifts are fostering geopolitical tensions and driving multinational companies to navigate a fragmented AI ecosystem, balancing compliance with competition in diverse markets.

Major Story

🇮🇷 🇸🇦 🇺🇸 RIYADH’S ROLE IN IRAN–U.S. MEDIATION: A STRATEGIC MOVE OR POLITICAL POSTURING?

Reports have emerged that Saudi Arabia may be positioning itself as a mediator between Iran and the United States, a claim first highlighted by CNN. Tehran has dismissed the idea as speculation, but Iranian media have engaged in discussions about the potential implications. Some Iranian political sources view Riyadh’s involvement positively, citing its close ties with Washington. Others, however, remain skeptical, interpreting the move as an attempt to signal Saudi Arabia’s strategic importance to the U.S. rather than a genuine effort to replace Oman and Qatar as established intermediaries.

This speculation coincides with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani’s upcoming visit to Tehran. While Iran insists the trip is purely bilateral, some regional analysts suggest it could carry broader diplomatic significance.

Saudi Motivations and the Nuclear Deal Debate

Saudi Arabia's reported interest in brokering talks follows its history of fluctuating positions on Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Initially, Riyadh cautiously welcomed the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) but later celebrated the Trump administration’s withdrawal, arguing that it failed to address Iran’s ballistic missile program and regional influence. Saudi concerns deepened in 2019 when missile and drone attacks—blamed on Iran—targeted its oil infrastructure.

Despite a China-brokered agreement to restore Saudi-Iranian ties in 2023, Tehran has yet to see significant economic benefits due to Western sanctions. Meanwhile, Iranian hardliners remain wary of US engagement, particularly under Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy, which has intensified economic and political tensions.

The Future of Mediation

Saudi Arabia's interest in mediating may be driven by broader geopolitical ambitions, particularly as it seeks nuclear technology in exchange for normalizing ties with Israel. However, with the Gaza conflict complicating Saudi-Israeli relations and nuclear proliferation seen as a dangerous gamble, Riyadh appears to favour diplomatic containment of Iran’s nuclear programme.

For Tehran, Saudi involvement could serve as an opportunity to strengthen bilateral ties, aligning with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s push for regional engagement. Yet, doubts persist in Tehran about Riyadh’s true intentions, especially given its recent moves in Lebanon and Syria. Trust-building remains a work in progress, and it remains uncertain whether Iran would accept Saudi Arabia as a mediator over its traditional partners in the region.

Promotion

Unlock exclusive insights with our premium weekly newsletter.
Discover stories that flew under the radar.
Explore next week’s geopolitical milestones.
Weekly updates on the world’s most critical regions.
Help us take Horizon Geopolitics to the next level! Support the channel and fuel the creation of even better, high-quality content.

Subscribe to Our Premium Newsletter

Other News

1️⃣ 🇳🇪 Niger commission recommends 5–year transition to democratic rule: Niger’s ruling junta has endorsed a proposal for a five-year transition to civilian rule, which includes dissolving existing political parties and limiting future parties to a maximum of five. The plan, drafted by a 700-member national conference of community leaders and diaspora representatives, allows junta leader Brig. Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani to run in upcoming elections. Since military takeovers in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, the region has seen escalating insurgencies, the expulsion of French forces, and increased reliance on Russian mercenaries.

2️⃣ 🇮🇶 🇮🇱 🇮🇷 Iraq feared to be the next flashpoint in the Middle East crisis: The past year’s regional escalations linked to Gaza has fueled concerns that Israel could expand its military operations to Iraq, particularly following drone strikes claimed by the "Islamic Resistance in Iraq." Iraq’s leadership remains divided—some advocate direct confrontation, while others urge caution to avoid deeper entanglement in the Iran-Israel rivalry. A fragile consensus appears to have emerged, favoring limited engagement to minimize Iraq’s exposure. While a large-scale Israeli offensive against Iraqi factions seems unlikely, targeted assassinations or precision strikes remain possible if regional tensions flare. Such actions risk provoking a broader confrontation, particularly as Iraq’s constellation of Shia armed groups leverage their influence over energy infrastructure rather than direct military engagement. Aware of the economic risks, Iran’s allies may seek diplomatic leverage, using restraint as a bargaining tool for political concessions.