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📰 Lebanon braces for war

📰 Lebanon braces for war

and U.S. troops to exit Iraq

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
September 23, 2024

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily.

In Iraqi Kurdistan, preparations are underway for the sixth parliamentary elections, while Washington and Baghdad have reached an agreement to withdraw U.S. and other foreign troops by the end of 2026.

Meanwhile, world leaders are gathering in New York for the 79th United Nations General Assembly, while UN Secretary-General António Guterres cautioned about the risk of Lebanon becoming "another Gaza."

Stay informed with these stories and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇶 Iraqi Kurdistan prepares for its sixth parliamentary elections: After multiple delays, Iraqi Kurdistan—an autonomous region in northern Iraq, governed by its own parliament and president—is set to hold its sixth parliamentary elections in late October 20, facing challenges mainly from tensions between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). The political landscape has shifted, with changes like a revamped minority quota system and oversight by Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC). Growing public frustration with the KDP and PUK complicates their hold on power; loosening their grip may ease discontent but could also empower opposition parties. While the KDP’s position remains strong, splinter factions like the Popular Front are expected to challenge the PUK, and the National Stance will vie with the Gorran Movement. Public trust in the electoral process has eroded, with only 35.7% voter turnout in the 2021 Iraqi parliamentary elections, a trend likely to continue if these polls reinforce the status quo.

2️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 🇺🇳 Lebanon and Israel on ‘brink of imminent catastrophe,’ says UN: Hizbollah declared an "open-ended battle of reckoning" with Israel after launching rockets into the country's north, escalating tensions as world powers urged restraint to avoid a full-scale war. In response, Israel carried out its heaviest airstrikes in nearly a year across southern Lebanon, while Hizbollah retaliate with its deepest rocket attacks since the Gaza conflict began. UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned of the risk of Lebanon becoming "another Gaza." At a funeral for a Hizbollah commander killed in an Israeli airstrike on Beirut’s southern suburbs, deputy leader Naim Qassem stated they were prepared for "all military possibilities." As Israeli jets bombarded border villages, leading over 100,000 residents to flee, Beirut politicians urged de-escalation. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remained defiant, and global leaders, including the EU and U.S., called for an immediate ceasefire, though Guterres expressed doubts about either side's interest in peace.

3️⃣ 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka elect anti-corruption candidate Dissanayake: Anura Kumara Dissanayake has been declared the winner of Sri Lanka's presidential election, according to the Election Commission. The 55-year-old leftist leader of the People’s Liberation Front (JVP) and National People’s Power (NPP) alliance secured 42.31% of the vote. Opposition leader Sajith Premadasa finished second with 32.76%, while outgoing President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who imposed tough IMF-backed austerity measures during the 2022 economic collapse, came third with 17.27%. This election marked Sri Lanka's first-ever presidential race decided by a second round of counting, as no candidate reached the required 50%. The economy was the central issue, with Dissanayake promising welfare reforms to ease hardship and criticising the austerity measures tied to the IMF loan deal. Wickremesinghe's failure to address the cost-of-living crisis, along with his ties to the Rajapaksa family blamed for the economic collapse, likely eroded his support. Dissanayake seized the moment, vowing to reshape the island’s "corrupt" political culture.

4️⃣ 🇹🇷 Inside Turkiye’s rapidly growing defence industry: In recent years, Ankara has rapidly advanced its defence industry, becoming a key arms exporter and enhancing its influence, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Gulf. Following a record year for defence exports in 2023, Türkiye is set for continued growth, though challenges like competition and sanctions remain. Central to Türkiye’s national security strategy is reducing reliance on foreign suppliers, boosting domestic production, and projecting power internationally. Its cost-effective, high-performance defence products have made Türkiye a competitive player in the global arms market, appealing to countries seeking advanced technology without the conditions imposed by Western suppliers. However, reliance on foreign components and increasing competition, particularly from Iran, pose ongoing challenges for Türkiye’s expanding defence sector. Despite these obstacles, Türkiye is well-positioned to capture more market share, especially in the GCC and across Asia and Africa.

5️⃣ 🇨🇿 Czech opposition wins in regional election and leads senate vote: The opposition party ANO has secured a decisive victory in the Czech Republic's regional elections, despite severe flooding in the east. With more than 95% of the votes counted, ANO leads in 10 of 13 regional parliaments, according to the Czech statistics office (CSU). ANO, which stands for "Action of Dissatisfied Citizens," is a populist party led by billionaire and former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš. On the EU stage, the party aligns with Hungary's Fidesz and Austria's FPÖ in a right-wing bloc. Meanwhile, the ruling liberal-conservative coalition under Prime Minister Petr Fiala managed to lead only in South Bohemia, South Moravia, and the Liberec region. Full results are expected by Sunday night. These elections, seen as a key indicator ahead of next year's parliamentary vote, redefined the composition of 13 regional assemblies—responsible for services like schools, hospitals, and retirement homes—excluding Prague. Additionally, one-third of Senate seats were up for election, with some districts potentially requiring run-off votes next week.

Major Story

🇺🇳 🇺🇸 WORLD LEADERS GATHER IN NEW YORK FOR THE 79TH UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY

World leaders are convening in New York during the week of September 23 for the annual high-level session of the UN General Assembly, following one of the most tumultuous years in the organisation’s recent history.

The conflict in the Middle East has taken centre stage, particularly after Hamas's attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent military actions in Gaza. Additionally, the UN has been grappling with the ongoing wars in Sudan and Ukraine, albeit with limited impact. Relations among the U.S., Russia, and China in the Security Council have further deteriorated.

Despite these challenges, the UN remains actively engaged in various peacemaking and humanitarian efforts in conflict-affected countries. Its aid agencies and peace operations possess substantial and often unique capabilities for conflict management. In the coming year, the organisation must find ways to sustain and enhance these initiatives, even amid disheartening geopolitical dynamics.

The upcoming Summit of the Future, scheduled for the day before the General Assembly's high-level week, aims to advance these discussions. While the Summit may yield only modest reforms regarding the UN’s peace and security framework, it highlights that member states must address the UN’s critical role in matters of war and peace.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇶 Washington to withdraw all troops from Iraq by end of 2026: Washington and Baghdad have reached an agreement to withdraw U.S. and other foreign troops from Iraq by the end of 2026, according to U.S. defence officials. This marks the latest effort to end America’s two-decade military presence in the country. Under the plan, hundreds of U.S. and coalition troops stationed in Baghdad, western Iraq, and other areas are expected to depart by September next year, followed by a further withdrawal from the northern city of Erbil by the end of 2025, officials said. A senior administration official confirmed that while the framework for the withdrawal is complete, some final details—particularly involving coalition partners—are still being finalised. A formal announcement of the deal could be made next week, military officials noted. After 2026, a small contingent of U.S. forces is expected to remain in Iraq in advisory and logistical roles, supporting American troops stationed in Syria under a new bilateral security agreement. Pressure for the U.S. withdrawal has long come from Iranian-backed Shia militias, which exert significant influence over Iraq’s security forces and government, pushing for a reduced U.S. military footprint in the country.

2️⃣ 🇮🇶 🇮🇱 Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces bloc attack Israeli military targets: An Iran-backed militia in Iraq has claimed responsibility for drone and missile strikes on key targets in Israel on Sunday. In their statement, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq announced that they had struck a “vital site” in Israel with drones, though they did not provide further specifics. The group also reported firing enhanced cruise missiles at targets in northern Israel, as well as a third site in the south. They characterised these attacks as “a show of solidarity with our people in Palestine and a response to the atrocities committed by the occupation against civilians, including children, women, and the elderly.” Israeli officials have yet to comment on the claims.