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📰 Lebanon on the Brink

📰 Lebanon on the Brink

and Brazil cuts ties with Nicaragua

Ross Crabtree
August 15, 2024

Hello,

Today's coverage highlights key developments from Africa and the Middle East, including updates from Tunisia, Sierra Leone, and Israel.

In other news, Brazil has severed diplomatic ties with Nicaragua as President Lula repositions away from traditional allies. Meanwhile, Iran criticises Europe’s perceived hypocrisy in its calls for de-escalation.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇹🇳 Tunisian court jails Presidential Challengers to President Kais Saied: A Tunisian court has sentenced several potential presidential candidates to prison and barred them from running in October's election, local media and sources report. Critics argue this move aims to eliminate serious challengers to President Kais Saied. Prominent politician Abdel Latif Mekki, activist Nizar Chaari, Judge Mourad Massoudi, and candidate Adel Dou were each sentenced to eight months in prison and disqualified from candidacy for alleged vote-buying, according to lawyer Mokthar Jmai. Another court sentenced Abir Moussi, a staunch Saied critic, to two years in prison for insulting the election commission, as reported by Mosaique radio. Moussi has been jailed since October, per Agence France-Presse. These rulings have intensified concerns among opposition parties, candidates, and human rights groups, who accuse authorities of using arbitrary restrictions and intimidation to secure Saied’s re-election in the October 6 vote.

2️⃣ 🇧🇷 🇳🇮 Brazil cuts ties with Nicaragua: Brazil and Nicaragua have expelled each other's ambassadors in a tit-for-tat diplomatic dispute, signalling a shift in Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's stance towards former leftist allies. The expulsions reflect rising tensions between Lula and Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, whose re-election claim remains unacknowledged by Lula. Along with leaders from Colombia and Mexico, Lula has called for the release of full voting tallies to verify Maduro's victory. On Thursday, Brazil announced the expulsion of Nicaragua’s ambassador, citing "reciprocity" after Nicaragua expelled the Brazilian ambassador two weeks prior.

3️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇪🇺 Iran rebukes European calls for restraint, citing hypocrisy and ‘political logic’: Iran has rejected calls from France, Germany, and the UK to cease its threats against Israel following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last month. Nasser Kanaani, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, stated on Tuesday that the request "lacks political logic, contradicts international law principles," and "publicly and practically supports" Israel. Kanaani criticised the European countries for not condemning Israel's actions while demanding that Iran refrain from responding to a breach of its sovereignty. He emphasised Iran's resolve to deter Israel and urged the European nations to oppose the ongoing war in Gaza and Israel's aggression.

4️⃣ 🇸🇱 🇺🇳 Africa the ‘unquestionable victim’ of the UN Security Council’s inequities, says Sierra Leone’s President: Sierra Leone’s President Julius Maada Bio urged the UN Security Council to grant Africa greater representation, emphasising that the continent “cannot wait any longer.” Speaking at a meeting his country organised, Bio demanded two permanent, veto-wielding seats for Africa, denouncing the current structure as outdated and unjust. He called for decisive action, arguing that Africa has long been an "unquestionable victim" of the council’s inequities. Despite ongoing discussions about reforming the council, including expanding its membership, debates have stalled over the specifics of the changes.

5️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 74 Russian settlements now under Ukrainian control, says Zelenskyy: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukrainian forces now control 74 Russian settlements in the Kursk region following a cross-border operation. In his address on Tuesday, Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces continue to advance and capture Russian soldiers in the region. He emphasised this operation as proof of Ukraine's capability to seize the initiative, even more than two years after Russia's invasion. However, Kursk region Governor Alexei Smirnov reported on Monday that Ukraine controls only 28 Russian settlements.

Major Story

🇱🇧 LEBANON’S FRACTURED HEALTHCARE AND SOCIAL SERVICES BRACE FOR POTENTIAL ESCALATION WITH ISRAEL

Lebanon's strained healthcare system is bracing for the potential fallout of an expanded conflict with Israel, Health Minister Firas Abiad told The Associated Press on Monday.

The recent escalation began with an Israeli strike in Beirut that killed a prominent Hezbollah commander, prompting the militant group’s threats of retaliation. This has heightened tensions as Israel and Hezbollah continue to exchange strikes amid the ongoing Gaza conflict.

With a fragile budget, a divided parliament, and no sitting president, Lebanon's caretaker government is scrambling to prepare for possible worsening conditions. Minister Abiad noted that healthcare facilities, which have been managing with minimal supplies due to the country’s financial strains, have now stockpiled critical resources to last four months.

Gaza's health system has been devastated, raising serious concerns among Lebanese authorities about potential attacks on hospitals in a broader conflict. Health Minister Firas Abiad noted that nearly 20 paramedics and healthcare workers in southern Lebanon, including those from Hezbollah-affiliated groups, have died in Israeli strikes.

Recent Israeli assaults have intensified, causing significant damage and sonic booms in Beirut. Lebanon's health sector, once among the region's best, is now struggling with a series of crises, including a severe financial collapse, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2020 Beirut Port explosion.

In 2021, Lebanese hospitals were already near collapse, struggling with shortages of medicine and resources. Despite this, Abiad is hopeful, recalling the sector's resilience during the port blast when it managed over 6,000 casualties in just 12 hours.

Currently, the health sector relies heavily on international aid. The World Health Organization recently provided 32 tons of emergency supplies. However, U.N. and humanitarian groups have had to shift resources to support around 100,000 people displaced from southern Lebanon since the Gaza conflict began.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 🇷🇺 US warns Iran of severe repercussions over arms sales to Russia: The United States issued a warning to Iran on Monday against providing ballistic missiles to Russia, stating it would trigger a "severe" response and hinder Tehran's efforts to improve relations. State Department spokesman Vedant Patel confirmed that the US has communicated with European allies about reports of Iran's plan to supply Russia with hundreds of ballistic missiles. "We are prepared to respond swiftly and severely if Iran proceeds with this transfer, which would significantly escalate Iran's support for Russia's aggression in Ukraine," Patel said. Russia has increasingly relied on sanctioned countries like North Korea for military equipment to bolster its operations in Ukraine.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 Israel’s ‘public finances are in trouble,’ according to credit rating agency: Fitch has downgraded Israel's credit rating from "A plus" to "A" due to the ongoing conflict in Gaza and potential confrontation with Iran. While the new rating still indicates a low risk of default for investors in Israeli government bonds, it reflects increased vulnerability in meeting financial obligations. Fitch predicts that Israel's military spending will rise by nearly 1.5% of GDP, inflating the budget deficit and national debt. The agency warned that the Gaza conflict might persist into 2025 and could escalate further. Earlier this year, Moody's and S&P Global also downgraded Israel's credit rating citing heightened geopolitical risks.