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📰 Lebanon ends stalemate

📰 Lebanon ends stalemate

and Biden urged to act

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
January 10, 2025

Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

Kurdistan remains pivotal in this week’s geopolitical landscape as a Kurdish SDF commander calls on Trump to maintain the U.S. military footprint in northeastern Syria, citing threats from ISIS and Turkiye, while Ankara signals readiness to reopen peace talks with the PKK.

Meanwhile, Lebanon has ended a two-year political gridlock with the election of a new president, and the conflict in Myanmar witnesses a dramatic escalation.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇸🇦 🇺🇸 🇫🇷 Lebanon elects Joseph Aoun as first president in over two years: Lebanon's newly elected President, Joseph Aoun, secured a decisive parliamentary victory, ending a two-year political deadlock that left key state institutions in limbo. Backed tacitly by Saudi Arabia, France, and the United States, and unopposed by the Hizbollah-Amal Shia bloc, Aoun pledged sweeping reforms in his inaugural address. He vowed to combat corruption, ensure judicial independence, and dismantle illicit arms networks, promising to rebuild areas devastated by Israel’s most recent invasion. Aoun also reaffirmed the state’s exclusive right to bear arms, a declaration welcomed by Hizbollah’s rivals, who argue that state-building is impossible while armed groups persist. The international community is closely watching Aoun’s leadership, as Beirut faces pressure to disarm militias, secure borders, and enforce UN resolutions in southern Lebanon.

2️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇸🇾 🇮🇶 Ankara signals intent to renew peace process with Kurdistan Workers’ Party: Türkiye has unexpectedly indicated a willingness to restart peace negotiations with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), amid concerns that escalating conflict between Israel and Iran could strengthen Kurdish-Israeli ties against Turkish interests, in addition to violent clashes between the predominantly Kurdish SDF and Turkish backed groups such as the SNA. The move may also aim to stabilize domestic politics, easing the path for constitutional amendments that could allow President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan a fourth term in 2028. However, recent PKK attacks on state-owned arms facilities and Türkiye’s retaliatory strikes in Syria and Iraq complicate prospects for peace. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) in Iraq has welcomed Ankara's initiative, likely seeking to curb PKK influence within Iraqi Kurdistan and strengthen its alliance with Türkiye.

3️⃣ 🇩🇰 🇺🇸 🇬🇱 Denmark pursues Greenland discussions with Trump: Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has requested talks with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump following his controversial remarks about acquiring Greenland, possibly by force. Frederiksen said she expects the conversation to occur after Trump’s inauguration on January 20 but noted he has yet to respond. While Trump has openly floated expansionist ideas regarding Greenland since his election, Frederiksen firmly stated, “Greenland belongs to the Greenlanders,” emphasizing Denmark’s commitment to respecting the island’s autonomy. Amid the tensions, Greenlandic Prime Minister Múte Egede renewed calls for full independence from Denmark, framing it as a step away from colonial legacies.

4️⃣ 🇳🇨 🇫🇷 New Caledonia elects pro-France president: Following weeks of instability, New Caledonia has appointed Alcide Ponga, a French loyalist from the Le Rassemblement party, as its new president. Ponga’s election brings temporary stability after the collapse of the territory's first pro-independence government in December 2024. Addressing Congress, Ponga, a Kanak from a northern mining village, emphasized the need for unity and hope as the Pacific territory grapples with economic and social fallout from May's deadly riots. The unrest, sparked by a controversial bill to expand the electorate, left 13 dead and led to nearly 3,000 arrests, deepening tensions over independence. While Ponga’s leadership signals continued ties with France, his predecessor, Louis Mapou, is remembered for reforms that bolstered the economy and fostered collaboration across political divides, despite the challenges of Covid and mining crises.

5️⃣ 🇲🇲 Myanmar’s junta kills over 40 in airstrikes: An airstrike by Myanmar’s junta has killed at least 41 people and injured 50 more in Rakhine State, local reports confirmed on Thursday. The attack destroyed over 500 homes in a town controlled by the Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic armed group that seized the area from the junta in March. Victims reportedly include both ethnic Rakhine and Rohingya, though identities remain unverified. While the AA controls much of the region and its border with Bangladesh, Rohingya—already persecuted by Myanmar’s military—now face additional threats from the AA’s growing influence.

Major Story

🇹🇷 🇮🇱 TURKIYE IDENTIFIED AS EMERGING THREAT TO ISRAEL IN SECURITY REPORT

A report from Israel’s Nagel Committee has raised concerns about Türkiye’s increasing influence in the region, warning of potential escalation into direct conflict with Israel. Submitted to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other key officials, the report outlines Türkiye’s alleged ambitions to revive Ottoman-era dominance, highlighting risks posed by Turkish-backed militias in Syria, which could act as destabilising proxies. The committee even suggested that threats from Syria, supported by Türkiye, might surpass the danger posed by Iran, long considered Israel’s primary regional adversary.

The report recommends a substantial increase in Israel’s defence budget, proposing an additional NIS 15 billion ($4.1 billion) annually over five years. This funding would bolster Israel’s air defence systems, procure advanced weaponry such as F-15 jets, and enhance long-range strike capabilities. It also advocates for a fortified security barrier in the Jordan Valley.

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1️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇺🇸 🇹🇷 Kurdish SDF general urges Trump to keep U.S. troops in Syria’s northeast: General Mazloum Abdi, commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), has called on the United States to maintain its military presence in north-eastern Syria, warning that a withdrawal could lead to a resurgence of ISIS. He noted that ISIS has strengthened in the desert, seizing weapons from Syria’s fallen Assad regime, while the SDF faces escalating pressure from Türkiye and its proxies. Abdi emphasised that the presence of 2,000 U.S. troops is critical to regional stability, preventing ISIS factions from reorganising and striking detention centres holding their fighters. He also urged the incoming Biden administration to prioritise mediation between Türkiye and the Syrian Kurds, warning that a U.S. retreat risks renewed chaos and potential civil war, as multiple factions vie for control in the volatile region.