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📰 Lebanon under fire

📰 Lebanon under fire

and Libya’s central bank chaos

Billy Robinson
August 26, 2024

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily,

Today's dispatch covers significant events from across the Middle East: Israeli airstrikes have plunged Lebanon into a 'night of horror,' while International Criminal Court prosecutor Karim Khan emphasises the court's jurisdiction over Israel and Gaza.

In the Sahel, devastating drone strikes are reported near the Algerian border by Tuareg resistance groups.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Israel launches heavy airstrikes on Lebanon in the most intense exchange since October: Israel conducted extensive airstrikes across Lebanon overnight, described as 'preemptive measures' against Hizbollah's long-anticipated retaliation for the assassination of senior commander Fuad Shukr, in Beirut last month. Lebanese residents reported a "night of horror," with shells causing fires and extensive damage, though the number of casualties is still unclear. Hizbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah noted the delay in retaliation was to allow time for Gaza ceasefire talks, which were ultimately unsuccessful. Hizbollah launched several hundred rockets and drones at Israel, targeting the Gilot Mossad base north of Tel Aviv while avoiding civilian areas, while Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that all incoming rockets and drones were intercepted by air defences. Since October, the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel—triggered by the Gaza war—has heightened fears of regional escalation involving Iran and the U.S. Hezbollah's recent attack seems designed to elicit a controlled Israeli response. Nasrallah expressed satisfaction with the strike's effect on Israeli military and intelligence targets and accused the Israeli government of concealing its own casualties.

2️⃣ 🇲🇱 21 civilians killed in northern Mali drone attack: Armed groups linked to Tuareg movements condemned a recent attack in Tin Zaoutine, Mali, where a coalition reported the death of 21 people, including children, due to Malian army drone strikes. The strikes, conducted near the Algerian border, also resulted in several injuries, with victims receiving treatment in Tin Zaoutine, Algeria. The Tuareg—or Azawadi—coalition, known as the Permanent Strategic Framework for the Defense of the Azawadi People, accused the Malian military council and Russian Wagner Group mercenaries of conducting the attacks from Burkina Faso and alleged that the Malian government is pursuing an ethnic cleansing agenda.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 ICC Prosecutor asserts the court’s power to issue warrants for Israeli leaders linked to Gaza war crimes: The International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, has urgently sought arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other officials involved in the Israel-Hamas conflict, asserting the court’s jurisdiction. Khan has called for prompt action on the warrants he filed in May for Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and three Hamas leaders, two of whom are now deceased. He rejected objections related to the Oslo Accords and Israel's internal investigations, stressing that delays undermine victims' rights. This development follows unsuccessful ceasefire talks in Cairo, where additional Israeli demands led to a rejection by Hamas.

4️⃣ 🇲🇲 🇧🇩 Myanmar’s Rohingya mark seventh anniversary of displacement with call for end to hostilities: On Sunday, tens of thousands of Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh marked the seventh anniversary of the military crackdown that forced their exodus, calling for an end to violence and a safe return to Myanmar. Over a million Rohingya currently live in harsh conditions in southern Bangladesh, with few prospects of returning home due to their lack of citizenship and other rights. In recent weeks, escalating conflict between Myanmar's junta forces and the Arakan Army, an influential ethnic militia, has driven additional Rohingya to flee Rakhine state.

5️⃣ 🇱🇾 Central Bank leadership dispute continues to threaten Libya’s fragile peace: A dispute over the leadership of Libya's Central Bank intensified this week amid allegations of irregularities in budget allocations and oil revenue management. The conflict pits the Tripoli-based government, which dismissed longtime governor Siddiq Elkebir, against the eastern parliament, which continues to support him. Crisis Group expert Claudia Gazzini notes that this dispute is part of a broader series of events deepening the rift between the two rival governments, jeopardising Libya’s fragile peace. While the situation has not yet escalated into violence, the urgency for renewed UN-backed negotiations to unify the country is greater than ever, though the prospects for success remain uncertain.

Major Story

🇷🇺 🇺🇦 KURSK OFFENSIVE REVEALS RUSSIA’S SHRINKING ROLE IN CENTRAL ASIA

The world was caught off guard by Ukraine’s unexpected incursion into Russia’s Kursk region on August 6, a militarily bold move that challenged Russian President Vladimir Putin's image of invincibility and exposed deeper strategic weaknesses in Russia's power. Notably, Russia’s Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) allies—Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—have not offered support, isolating Moscow.

Founded in 2002 to counter external threats and unify foreign policy, the CSTO’s collective defence principle resembles NATO’s Article Five. However, the alliance’s failure to respond to the Kursk incursion undermines its credibility, revealing it as a largely symbolic entity.

The CSTO has previously shown weaknesses, such as Belarus’s criticism of the alliance for ignoring Kyrgyzstan’s 2010 crisis and Uzbekistan’s withdrawals in 1999 and 2012. Recent reports of Belarus supplying Azerbaijan with weapons used against Armenia further highlight the bloc’s lack of cohesion.

The CSTO’s inaction and the silence from its members amid the Ukrainian intervention have increased Moscow’s isolation. Even Belarusian President Lukashenko, usually a close ally, has called for an end to the war, suggesting a reduction in support for Russia.

Central Asia, historically influenced by Russia, is now showing signs of greater regional cooperation. Recent shifts, including Russia’s military redeployments and reduced presence in Armenia, have encouraged Central Asian leaders to pursue deeper integration. This evolving dynamic offers an opportunity for Western powers to engage more with Central Asia, supporting its regional integration and challenging Russian dominance.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇻🇦 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Pope Francis condemns Ukraine’s ban on the Moscow patriarchate-linked Orthodox Church: The day after President Zelensky enacted a law banning a specific church, the Pope appealed for freedom of worship, urging Ukrainian authorities to allow people to pray in their chosen churches and not to dismantle any Christian institution. In response, Patriarch Kirill of Moscow, a close ally of Vladimir Putin, condemned the Ukrainian decision, accusing Kyiv of persecuting followers of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church.