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📰 Lebanon's PM approves plan for Hizbollah disarmament

📰 Lebanon's PM approves plan for Hizbollah disarmament

and Saint-Cyr sworn in as Haiti leader

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
August 08, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily,

Today, Ankara forms PKK disarmament commission; Ghanaian ministers are killed in a helicopter crash; and major shifts unfold in Haiti, Sudan, and Lebanon.

Our lead story turns to Taiwan, where Dr. Zheng Wang reframes the cross-Strait conflict not as a mere geopolitical contest, but as a collision of collective identities.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇺🇸 Prime Minister Salam approves U.S. arms plan to disarm Hizbollah: Lebanon’s Cabinet has plunged into crisis after Prime Minister Nawaf Salam endorsed a U.S.-led disarmament proposal targeting Hizbollah and allied factions. The plan, presented by envoy Tom Barrack, demands the Lebanese army dismantle non-state arsenals within 90 days, with foreign logistical support. President Joseph Aoun urged engagement, but ministers aligned with Hizbollah and Amal denounced the move as a foreign imposition, emphasising that any discussion of disarmament is premature without Israel’s withdrawal, the return of prisoners, an end to attacks, and a serious reconstruction process. Hizbollah insists that any weapons decision must arise from national consensus and not external pressure, warning that pitting the army against the resistance risks fracturing both state and military. Heated Cabinet sessions have exposed sharp divisions, prompting walkouts and warnings of internal unrest.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇦🇪 🇨🇴 Sudan army reportedly downs UAE aircraft carrying Colombian mercenaries in Darfur: Sudan’s air force struck and destroyed a UAE aircraft carrying Colombian mercenaries and weapons for the RSF as it attempted to land at Nyala Airport in Darfur, killing over 40 people, according to state media. The Sudanese army has long accused the UAE of funnelling arms and foreign fighters to the RSF, which controls much of Darfur—claims Abu Dhabi denies. Colombian President Gustavo Petro, responding to reports that his nationals were among the dead, pledged to repatriate the bodies and ban mercenary work. Satellite images and UN experts have previously confirmed the UAE’s deployment of Colombian fighters. The attack comes amid worsening conditions in el-Fasher, where starvation and disease threaten thousands trapped in the siege, as Sudan’s war enters its third year.

3️⃣ 🇭🇹 🇺🇳 🇰🇪 Laurent Saint-Cyr assumes Haiti leadership as gang threats mount and governance falters: Business leader Laurent Saint-Cyr was sworn in Thursday as head of Haiti’s transitional council amid mounting gang threats and widespread violence. His appointment marks the first time Haiti’s executive branch is jointly led by private sector figures. Hours earlier, gang leader Jimmy “Barbecue” Chérizier threatened to storm the council, while gunfire echoed across Port-au-Prince. Saint-Cyr pledged to restore order and criticised state failure, urging stronger security operations and international support. Meanwhile, the U.N.-backed Kenyan-led mission remains under-resourced, with only 991 personnel—far short of the planned 2,500. Civil unrest persists, and over 1.3 million Haitians have been displaced since President Moïse’s 2021 assassination. Despite some support for Saint-Cyr, distrust of elite-led governance and ongoing violence continue to paralyse Haiti’s recovery.

4️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Microsoft cloud hosts Israeli surveillance trove used in strikes on Palestinians: Israeli intelligence unit 8200 has used Microsoft’s Azure cloud to store an immense trove of intercepted Palestinian communications—material reportedly used to plan airstrikes and arrests, according to an investigation by +972 Magazine, Local Call, and The Guardian. After a 2021 meeting between Unit 8200’s chief and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, engineers built a tailored Azure system capable of storing up to “a million calls an hour.” Leaked documents show over 11,000 terabytes of Israeli military data stored on Microsoft servers, much of it related to Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. Microsoft denies knowledge of civilian surveillance, but whistleblowers and internal documents indicate the project has become central to Israeli operations—and a lucrative business venture. Activists and investors have since accused Microsoft of complicity in Israeli war crimes.

5️⃣ 🇹🇭 🇰🇭 🇲🇾 Thai and Cambodian forces remain on high alert despite Malaysia-brokered ceasefire: Despite a ceasefire agreement mediated by Malaysia on July 28, Thai and Cambodian troops continue to amass near their disputed border, raising concerns of renewed conflict. As Thai and Cambodian officials meet in Kuala Lumpur for a four-day summit, each side accuses the other of violating the fragile truce. The recent fighting, which erupted on July 24, left at least 24 civilians dead and displaced over 260,000 people. Thai MP Wasawat Puangpornsri, visiting the affected Nam Yuen district, warned the situation “could erupt at any time.” Locals remain displaced, fearing further violence. Observers from China, the U.S., and Malaysia are attending the talks, which may include discussions on military de-escalation and humanitarian measures, but distrust and troop build-ups continue to undermine peace efforts.

Major Story

🇹🇼 🇨🇳 IDENTITY, NOT POWER, DRIVES TAIWAN CONFLICT

The Taiwan conflict is often interpreted through the lens of geopolitics, military balance, or ideological confrontation. This framing misses the core issue. What lies at the heart of the cross-Strait crisis is not merely strategic rivalry, but a collision of collective identities. China views Taiwan’s return as central to its national rejuvenation; Taiwan sees its democracy and distinctiveness as non-negotiable. The United States, for its part, has come to link Taiwan’s fate to its own global leadership narrative. Each of these visions is shaped by historical trauma, national memory, and deep-seated self-conceptions—not just power calculus.

Competing Dreams and the Danger of Militarised Identity

For Beijing, reclaiming Taiwan is a step toward healing the humiliation of colonial-era fragmentation. For Taipei, maintaining democratic autonomy is tied to a history of resisting both authoritarianism and forced assimilation. For Washington, Taiwan has become symbolic of its hegemonic interests in the Indo-Pacific—essentially China containment—and democratic resilience. The problem is not merely that these dreams differ, but that some in all three capitals now believe they may only be realised through military force. In such an environment, deterrence alone is not enough. Dr. Zheng Wang, Director of the Center for Peace and Conflict Studies, argues that the deeper the identity divide, the more likely it is that militarisation will harden narratives and accelerate escalation.

Strategic Reassurance: An Antidote to Symbolic Extinction

To reduce the risk of conflict, deterrence must be paired with strategic reassurance. This involves signalling that each side’s identity and core aspirations can survive—indeed thrive—without war. For example, Taiwan might frame its sovereignty as rooted in status quo resilience rather than outright independence, while China could be encouraged to see rejuvenation as global prestige and economic leadership rather than coercive unification. Reassurance must speak directly to existential concerns, not just strategic interests. By affirming dignity without demanding submission, reassurance lowers the cost of compromise and makes coexistence imaginable.

From Theory to Practice: Three Identity-Aware Policy Proposals

Wang outlines three key policy directives to address the aforementioned existential concerns. First, reduce military signalling: De-escalate symbolic shows of strength, such as provocative visits or permanent troop deployments. Emphasise defensive postures while reaffirming the One China policy to avoid triggering existential alarms in Beijing. Second, institutionalise cross-strait dialogue: Support Track II diplomacy and identity-sensitive forums involving academics, civil society, and cultural institutions. Let recognition and empathy precede formal negotiation. Finally, promote narratives of coexistence: All sides should avoid zero-sum rhetoric. Taiwan can reflect on its de-Sinicisation efforts, not as capitulation, but as strategy. China can temper historical rhetoric with messages of peaceful unity. The US can lead by example, balancing deterrence with respectful diplomacy.

Peace Through Mutual Recognition

This is not a conventional dispute over resources or ideology, it is a struggle between deeply internalised identities. Coercion cannot rewrite memory. Force will not resolve trauma. Without strategic reassurance, deterrence alone risks inflaming the very fears it seeks to contain. As Wang opines, if there is to be lasting peace in the Taiwan Strait, it will be won not through dominance, but through humility, and the difficult art of coexistence.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇹🇷 Ankara launches parliamentary commission to oversee PKK disarmament: Turkey’s parliament has formed a cross-party commission to supervise the disarmament of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), following jailed leader Abdullah Ocalan’s appeal to end armed struggle. Last month, 30 PKK fighters burned their weapons in northern Iraq in a symbolic act marking the start of the group’s dissolution. Speaker Numan Kurtulmus said the commission would not only oversee disarmament but also draft legislation to ensure lasting peace. The PKK, which launched its insurgency in 1984 and is designated a terrorist group by Turkey and its Western allies, announced in May that it had fulfilled its “historic mission.” The pro-Kurdish DEM Party urged a democratic resolution guaranteeing collective Kurdish rights and mother-tongue education. While most parties joined the commission, the nationalist IYI Party refused, warning it risked legitimising PKK demands.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇸🇴 Senate confirms AFRICOM chief as Somaliland emerges in U.S. Red Sea strategy: The U.S. Senate unanimously confirmed Lt. Gen. Dagvin Anderson as the first Air Force officer to lead AFRICOM, marking a potential shift in U.S. policy toward Somaliland. In Senate testimony, Anderson endorsed engagement with Somaliland amid frustrations over limited progress in Somalia. Congress has instructed the State Department to explore cooperation with Hargeisa, including in security, diplomacy, and trade. Somaliland President Irro is expected in Washington soon to discuss U.S. access to Berbera port and mineral partnerships. As China and Russia expand influence in the Red Sea, Somaliland’s strategic position offers Washington a valuable counterweight. Anderson’s appointment and recent legislative moves suggest a more pragmatic U.S. approach toward the self-declared republic may be taking shape.

3️⃣ 🇬🇭 🇧🇫 Helicopter crash in Ghana kills defence and environment ministers amid border tensions: A military helicopter crash in Ghana’s Ashanti region has killed all eight on board, including Defence Minister Edward Omane Boamah and Environment Minister Ibrahim Murtala Muhammed. The officials were en route from Accra to Obuasi when the aircraft disappeared from radar and crashed in dense forest. The flight is believed to have been linked to efforts tackling illegal gold mining. Muhammed, a prominent environmental advocate, was due to attend UN talks in Geneva, while Boamah had been managing defence ties amid regional insecurity. President Mahama has declared a period of national mourning and cancelled all engagements. The crash comes as Ghana faces rising instability along its northern border, with concerns over armed spillover from Burkina Faso and the recent regional fallout following the Ecowas split.