Geopolitics Daily
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📰 Lebanon under fire

📰 Lebanon under fire

and Putin's BRICS declaration

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
October 21, 2024

Hello,

Today's main story focuses on Moldova, which has voted on whether to join the European Union.

In Asia, former general Prabowo Subianto was sworn in as Indonesia’s president.

In the Middle East, Australia faces criticism for backing US airstrikes in Yemen, while Israel has destroyed a UN peacekeeper watchtower in southern Lebanon amid its ongoing military operation.

As the BRICS summit in Kazan approaches, President Putin asserts that BRICS—rather than the West—will lead global economic growth.

Stay informed with these stories and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇱🇧 🇺🇳 Continued Israeli strikes causing widespread panic in Lebanon, reports UN special coordinator: Israeli airstrikes targeted southern Beirut, including areas near the international airport, with Lebanon’s National News Agency reporting 11 strikes on the city. Many targeted Al-Qard Al-Hassan—a financial entity upon which hundreds of thousands of Lebanese are reliant—which Israel accuses of financing Hizbollah's operations. An airstrike landed near the airport, a key entry point for humanitarian aid and a major evacuation hub. AFP footage showed smoke rising near one of the runways, as well as over the heavily hit southern suburbs. In Chiyah, a building housing an Al-Qard Al-Hassan branch was flattened, with rescuers searching for survivors. Additional strikes targeted the association’s locations in Hermel, Riyaq, and Baalbek in eastern Lebanon, including a commercial market. Strikes also hit near Sidon and Nabatieh in the south, with residents evacuating swiftly following an Israeli military warning.

2️⃣ 🇭🇹 🇺🇳 UN security council extends arms embargo on Haiti: The UN Security Council, citing Chapter VII of the UN Charter, unanimously adopted Resolution 2752 (2024), reaffirming that Haiti's ongoing situation poses a threat to regional peace and security. The resolution extends sanctions to restrict the flow of weapons and military equipment to criminal gangs in the country, while allowing exceptions for supplies supporting UN missions, Haitian security forces, and humanitarian efforts. Haiti faces a dire humanitarian crisis marked by escalating gang violence, economic turmoil, and natural disasters, displacing hundreds of thousands, including around 350,000 children. Reports of sexual violence, kidnappings, and executions have emerged as the situation worsens. The Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission, authorised by the UN in 2023 and led by Kenya, aims to aid Haiti's police in curbing gang activity. With 410 officers deployed, it plans to expand to 2,500 personnel despite the ongoing instability.

3️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇨🇳 UK foreign secretary meets Chinese counterpart in Beijing: UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy addressed human rights concerns and China’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine during discussions with China’s foreign affairs chief, Wang Yi. This marked Lammy's first visit to China since assuming office, with the Foreign Office describing the talks as "constructive." During the meeting, Lammy tackled various foreign policy and security topics, such as Chinese companies' military support for Russia and ongoing Middle East conflicts. Human rights issues, including the treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang and the detention of British national Jimmy Lai in Hong Kong, were also raised. However, the official statement did not directly mention Taiwan, despite China's recent large-scale military exercises around the island, which UK opposition leader Keir Starmer criticised as destabilising. In addition to Wang Yi, Lammy met with China's Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang, aiming to establish consistent UK-China relations after a period of limited engagement on human rights issues.

4️⃣ 🇷🇺 BRICS, not the West, will drive global economic growth, says Putin: Russian President Vladimir Putin has highlighted the BRICS bloc's expanding role in driving global economic growth, citing its size and relatively rapid development compared to Western economies. The group, now expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE alongside Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, is being positioned as a formidable counterbalance to Western influence in international trade and politics. Speaking at a BRICS business forum in Moscow, Putin stressed the group's economic significance, stating, "BRICS will generate the main increase in global GDP in the foreseeable future." He also emphasised the bloc's pursuit of "economic sovereignty," with growth increasingly less reliant on external factors. The upcoming BRICS summit, scheduled for October 22-24 in Kazan, aims to demonstrate Russia's resilience despite Western attempts at diplomatic isolation over the Ukraine conflict. Leaders from China, India, and the UAE have confirmed their participation. The summit will explore efforts to reform the global financial system and reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar.

5️⃣ 🇮🇩 Former general, Prabowo Subianto, sworn in as Indonesian president: Prabowo Subianto has officially become Indonesia’s eighth president, taking the oath of office at a ceremony in the nation's parliament. The 73-year-old former general, donning a traditional black songkok and a navy suit, pledged to revitalise the economy, tackle corruption, and alleviate inequality. He was joined by Gibran Rakabuming Raka, his young vice president, following their resounding victory in the February presidential election with over 58% of the vote. The inauguration, attended by leaders from 33 countries, saw Prabowo deliver a passionate speech where he acknowledged the contributions of past presidents and highlighted persistent social challenges, including poverty and corruption. He promised swift action to achieve food and energy self-sufficiency and to eliminate the nation’s systemic corruption. On foreign policy, Prabowo reaffirmed Indonesia's commitment to a non-aligned stance, advocating for global justice and opposing colonialism. Thousands of supporters lined Jakarta's streets, cheering as Prabowo journeyed to the presidential palace, waving from a sunroof to his enthusiastic crowd.

Major Story

🇲🇩 🇪🇺 MOLDOVA VOTES FOR EU MEMBERSHIP

Moldova’s referendum on joining the European Union (EU) remains undecided, with a razor-thin margin between the “yes” and “no” camps. As of Monday, with 98% of votes tallied, support for EU membership led by a slight edge at 50.03%, while opposition was close behind at 49.97%, reflecting a nation deeply divided over its future direction. The contentious vote has been overshadowed by concerns of Russian interference, exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in neighbouring Ukraine.

Diaspora Influence and Presidential Implications

The narrow lead for the pro-EU camp emerged late in the counting process, with analysts attributing the shift to ballots from Moldova's largely pro-EU diaspora. This late surge provided a critical boost to incumbent President Maia Sandu, a staunch advocate for EU integration, who is seeking re-election. Preliminary presidential election results show Sandu with 41.91% of the vote, setting the stage for a November 3 run-off against former Prosecutor General Alexandr Stoianoglo, who garnered 26.32%. The presidential race will proceed to a second round as no candidate secured the required 50% threshold.

Allegations of Election Interference and Fraud

The referendum has been marked by allegations of electoral manipulation. President Sandu accused criminal networks, allegedly collaborating with foreign forces, of attempting to sway the outcome through vote-buying schemes. She cited “clear evidence” of efforts to purchase 300,000 votes, labelling the situation “fraud of unprecedented scale.”

The controversy centres on fugitive tycoon Ilan Shor, who, from his base in Russia, faces accusations of orchestrating election interference. Earlier in October, Moldovan authorities alleged that Shor sought to buy off at least 130,000 voters to oppose EU membership and support his preferred candidate. While Shor denies any wrongdoing, he has openly encouraged Moldovans on social media to sway votes, describing his financial incentives as legitimate.

Government Response to Allegations

In response to concerns over foreign interference, Moldovan authorities took preventive measures by shutting down disinformation networks, exposing a reported Russian training program aimed at inciting unrest, and initiating criminal cases against Shor’s associates.

As Moldova’s EU ambitions hang in the balance, the narrow margin and allegations of meddling underscore the deep political rifts within the country. The referendum’s outcome and the impending presidential run-off will shape Moldova's geopolitical future for years to come.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇲🇿 Opposition members killed in the aftermath of Mozambique’s election: Tensions in Mozambique spiked after the killings of opposition lawyer Elvino Dias and Podemos party official Paulo Guambe in Maputo, as attackers fired multiple rounds at their vehicle. The incident occurred amid disputes over provisional election results, which indicate a likely victory for the ruling Frelimo party. Podemos and its presidential candidate, Venâncio Mondlane, have rejected the results, citing irregularities, and called for a nationwide strike. The EU condemned the killings, urging a "thorough and transparent investigation." Concerns over vote-buying, intimidation, and transparency issues have marred the election process. Final results are expected on October 24, but fears of violence loom over upcoming protests. Human Rights Watch emphasised the need for justice for those behind the attack on Dias, who was contesting the election's legality.

2️⃣ 🇦🇺 🇺🇸 🇾🇪 Canberra says it supported US airstrikes on Yemen: Australia faces international backlash for extending support to U.S. airstrikes on Yemen's Houthis. Canberra admitted on Friday that U.S. aircraft had used air bases in the Northern Territory for strikes conducted on Thursday. Critics accuse Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong of hypocrisy, as Australia claims neutrality in the Gaza conflict while facilitating U.S. military actions. Journalists Antoinette Lattouf and Peter Cronau condemned the lack of transparency, noting no parliamentary discussion or public debate. The strikes targeted Sanaa and Saada, reportedly involving U.S. and U.K. forces. The Houthis, retaliating against Israel's offensive in Gaza, have attacked ships in the Red Sea. The Albanese government, citing alliance commitments, defended the air support as routine cooperation, but faced protests over perceived double standards and support for Israel amid ongoing violence in Gaza.

3️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇮🇱 🇱🇧 UNIFIL watchtower destroyed by Israeli forces in South Lebanon: The UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has accused the Israeli army of "deliberately" damaging one of its positions in southern Lebanon. According to a UNIFIL statement, an Israeli bulldozer destroyed an observation tower and perimeter fence at a UN site, despite peacekeepers maintaining all their posts amid escalating tensions. The force called on Israel to respect international law and safeguard UN personnel, emphasising that breaches of UN positions violate international law. The incident followed recent allegations by Israel that Hezbollah was operating near UN sites, a claim denied by the group. UNIFIL reported that Israeli tanks had also targeted one of its watchtowers, injuring four peacekeepers in multiple incidents. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the attacks, labelling them violations of international law and warning they could constitute war crimes.