Hello and welcome back. 

Headlines from Trump’s Gulf visit: $600bn Saudi investment deal secured, $1.4bn UAE arms sale approved, and U.S. sanctions on Syria to be lifted. Elsewhere, Myanmar junta violates ceasefire, and warlord assassination sends Tripoli into a state of emergency. 

Today's lead story outlines what drove the U.S. withdrawal from Yemen.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇺🇸 🇸🇾 Trump says U.S. will remove sanctions Syria sanctions regime: During his visit to Saudi Arabia, President Donald Trump announced the end of all U.S. sanctions on Syria, framing the move as a fresh opportunity for the war-torn nation to recover and rebuild. Speaking at an investment summit in Riyadh, Trump said the measures had served their purpose and that Syria now deserved “a chance at greatness.” The decision, reportedly influenced by talks with regional leaders including Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and President Erdogan, marks a major shift in U.S. policy. While welcomed by Syria’s interim government, questions remain about the long-term implications, especially amid ongoing Israeli strikes and regional tensions that continue to challenge Syria’s fragile recovery efforts.

2️⃣ 🇲🇲 🇺🇳 Junta violates ceasefire as dozens killed in central Myanmar airstrike on school: A Myanmar military airstrike on a school in Ohe Htein Twin village, Sagaing region, reportedly killed over 20 students and two teachers on Monday, wounding dozens more, according to resistance and aid sources. The attack, which occurred despite the military’s declared ceasefire to support earthquake relief, has been denied by state media as “fake news.” UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed deep concern, reiterating that schools must be protected in conflict. Local opposition figures claim the strike targeted a civilian site in a resistance stronghold without recent clashes, and follows a pattern of aerial assaults against schools and villages amid Myanmar’s escalating civil conflict.

3️⃣ 🇱🇾 Authorities declare state of emergency in Tripoli, Libya, after warlord assassinated: Heavy clashes erupted across Tripoli late Monday after the assassination of Abdelghani al-Kikli, leader of the powerful Stability Support Authority. At least six were killed as rival militias exchanged gunfire, forcing schools to close and residents to shelter indoors. Al-Kikli was reportedly ambushed by the 444 Brigade, a group aligned with Tripoli’s Prime Minister Dbeibah. Though authorities claimed the situation was under control by Tuesday, analysts warned that the fallout—especially the dismantling of al-Kikli’s deep institutional network—could provoke further unrest and shifts in power within Libya’s fractured west.

4️⃣ 🇵🇭 🇳🇱 Duterte wins Davao mayoral race while imprisoned at The Hague: Former Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte has been re-elected mayor of Davao City despite being detained at The Hague on charges of crimes against humanity. With over 60% of the vote counted, Duterte held a commanding lead of 405,000 votes, far ahead of his closest rival. His daughter, impeached Vice President Sara Duterte, said legal teams are determining how he might assume office from abroad. Meanwhile, Duterte’s son Sebastian is poised to win the vice-mayoral race, likely taking on official duties in his father's absence.

5️⃣ 🇦🇱 🇪🇺 Albania's progress hinges on inclusive governance and regional cooperation, says report: Albania faces a convergence of persistent internal challenges and shifting regional dynamics. Despite aspirations for EU accession, efforts to combat entrenched corruption and strengthen democratic institutions remain incomplete. Social inequality persists: women face enduring patriarchal norms, minorities remain underrepresented, and LGBTQ+ communities continue to struggle for rights and visibility. A New Lines Institute anthology explores these intersecting issues, offering analysis on electoral politics, judicial reform, security, and social justice, situating Albania’s internal struggles within broader geopolitical pressures—from NATO's presence to EU negotiations—arguing that true progress depends on inclusive governance, regional cooperation, and an unwavering commitment to democratic and social equity.

Major Story

🇾🇪 🇺🇸 THE U.S.’ RED SEA RETREAT: COSTLY CAMPAIGN ENDS WITH UNCERTAIN GAINS

President Trump’s directive to suppress Houthi attacks in the Red Sea aimed to restore shipping lanes within 30 days. But by Day 31, progress was minimal. The Houthis remained defiant, downing American drones, targeting naval assets, and reinforcing positions. The campaign, dubbed Operation Rough Rider, cost over $1 billion in its first month, burned through precision munitions, and even saw the accidental loss of two F/A-18 Super Hornets from the USS Truman. By early May, Trump—wary of prolonged entanglements—ordered an abrupt halt to offensive operations.

Diplomatic Exit Strategy

Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, brokered a deal via Oman: the U.S. would pause airstrikes in exchange for Houthi pledges to stop targeting American vessels. Though they continued to disrupt other maritime traffic, the president framed the outcome as a successful ceasefire and praised the Houthis’ resilience, drawing criticism from within his own national security team.

Military Miscalculations and Rising Costs

U.S. Central Command underestimated Houthi adaptability and overestimated Trump’s appetite for extended conflict, wrote the New York Times. The Houthis survived more than 1,100 American strikes, while mishaps—including possible war crimes, crashes, injuries, and leaked operational plans—characterised the effort. Internal divisions deepened, especially with Trump’s new Joint Chiefs Chair Dan Caine prioritizing readiness for possible conflict in the Asia-Pacific. Intelligence officials noted some tactical gains but warned the Houthis could quickly reconstitute.

Strategic and Political Fallout

As Israeli air defences intercepted a Houthi missile over Tel Aviv and another hit near Ben-Gurion Airport, Trump chose to declare victory. Pentagon officials remained split, and Yemen’s government forces were unprepared to capitalise on any military momentum. In the end, Trump’s campaign—launched with bold declarations—concluded without clear strategic success. While Washington paused its strikes, the Houthis celebrated, announcing victory over a superpower.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇺🇸 🇦🇪 🇸🇩 U.S. approves $1.4bn arms sale to UAE: The U.S. has approved a potential $1.4 billion arms sale to the United Arab Emirates, just days before President Trump is set to visit the country as part of his Middle East tour. The package includes $1.32 billion for CH-47F Chinook helicopters and $130 million for F-16 parts and support, and comes amid mounting evidence of the UAE’s aiding and abetting of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) onslaught in Sudan. While the UAE has committed to $1.4 trillion in future U.S. investments, the sale has drawn further criticism due to ongoing Emirati involvement in Yemen and concerns over Trump's personal financial ties. Senator Chris Murphy vowed to oppose arms transfers to nations engaged in direct business with Trump, citing ethics concerns over recent Gulf investments in his ventures.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇸🇦 Trump secures $600 billion investment deal with Saudi Arabia: President Donald Trump announced a landmark $600 billion Saudi investment package in the U.S. during a forum in Riyadh, marking a new chapter in bilateral ties. The agreement includes major defence and security, energy, tech, and infrastructure deals—such as DataVolt’s $20 billion investment in AI data centers, $80 billion in joint tech initiatives, and over $140 billion in defense purchases. Trump hailed the partnership as transformative, highlighting job creation and national security gains. Additional agreements span critical minerals, aviation, cultural cooperation, and energy innovation, reinforcing the deepening economic and strategic alliance between the two nations.

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Book Shelf

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Prisoners of Geography

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The World: A Brief Introduction

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