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📰 Long-range missiles approved

📰 Long-range missiles approved

and Xi meets Biden

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
November 18, 2024

Hello,

Today’s dispatch covers the latest in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with UK PM Starmer highlighting Ukraine as a key focus at the G20 summit and the U.S. authorising the use of long-range missiles to target Russian territory.

Meanwhile, Senegal's parliamentary elections have begun, Sri Lanka’s Dissanayake strengthens his parliamentary majority, and the G20 convenes in Brazil. In Lebanon, Israeli airstrikes have killed 21 civil defence rescuers, marking one of the deadliest days for emergency workers since Israel's invasion began.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇧🇷 🇺🇳 G20 summit commences in Rio de Janeiro: On the eve of the G20 Leaders' Summit in Rio, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called on G20 nations to take decisive leadership in addressing global challenges. Highlighting their economic and diplomatic influence, he urged leaders to tackle critical issues such as climate change, inequality, armed conflicts, and stalled progress on poverty and hunger. Guterres warned that current climate policies risk a catastrophic 3.1°C global temperature rise, far from the 1.5°C target, with G20 nations responsible for 80% of emissions. He also stressed the need for equitable international finance reforms, enhanced climate adaptation funding, and combating climate disinformation. The Secretary-General introduced initiatives on AI governance and climate information integrity while calling for swift, transformative action to restore global trust. “Failure is not an option,” he emphasised, urging the G20 to lead by example for a sustainable future.

2️⃣ 🇮🇶 🇸🇦 Iraq, Saudi Arabia advance defence cooperation: Baghdad and Riyadh have signed a new military cooperation agreement, marking a pivotal step in their improving relations. The memorandum of understanding (MOU) focuses on strengthening defence ties to tackle shared security concerns and signals Iraq’s intent to adopt a balanced regional stance, particularly amid tensions involving Iran. Announced after a 4 November meeting in Riyadh between Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman and his Iraqi counterpart Thabit Al-Abbasi, the agreement reflects a commitment to fostering regional stability. Both parties emphasised “joint military exercises” as a cornerstone of the MOU, though further specifics remain undisclosed. Iran, for its part, has expressed cautious disapproval, warning against foreign interference in Iraq's defence policies. This deal follows years of strained ties dating back to Iraq’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait, with significant rapprochement beginning in 2017. For Saudi Arabia, the agreement aligns with Vision 2030, emphasising regional alliances and reduced reliance on Western military support.

3️⃣ 🇵🇪 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 At APEC, Xi emphasises importance of U.S.–China ‘mutual respect’: During his meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Lima, Peru, Chinese President Xi Jinping underscored the importance of fostering "mutual respect" between the United States and China. While avoiding direct mention of Donald Trump, Xi acknowledged the outcome of the U.S. presidential election on November 5, reaffirming China’s commitment to a "stable, healthy, and sustainable" bilateral relationship. Xi cautioned against adversarial approaches, warning that framing each other as rivals or engaging in "vicious competition" could destabilise ties or even reverse progress. Reflecting on Trump’s previous term, marked by trade wars and mutual tariffs, Xi suggested that both nations work collaboratively to avoid economic damage. Extending an olive branch, Xi expressed readiness to cooperate with the incoming U.S. administration, emphasising dialogue, expanded collaboration, and effective management of differences for mutual benefit.

4️⃣ 🇪🇹 Devastating Amhara conflict enters its 20th month: For the past 20 months, Ethiopia's Amhara region has been ravaged by a brutal conflict between federal forces and the Fano militia, which seeks exclusive Amhara control over contested territories. The war has been marked by accusations of severe human rights violations, including indiscriminate drone strikes by the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) that have reportedly claimed the lives of hundreds of civilians. While much of the fighting unfolds in rural highlands, Fano has also launched urban assaults, prompting violent crackdowns by security forces. Despite ENDF offensives, Fano remains resilient. Drone strikes—using Turkish and Chinese-made technology—have intensified, with civilian casualties reportedly exceeding 300 in the past year. Amhara civic groups suggest the true toll may be significantly higher.

5️⃣ 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka’s Dissanayake shores up parliamentary majority: Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s coalition achieved a historic victory in yesterday’s parliamentary elections, with the National People’s Power (NPP) alliance securing 159 of 225 seats—an overwhelming two-thirds majority. This decisive win follows Dissanayake’s presidential triumph in September and reflects the culmination of the 2022 Aragalaya uprising, which ousted former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa amid a severe economic crisis. While the outgoing government negotiated an IMF bailout that stabilised the economy, its austerity measures fueled public resentment, propelling Dissanayake and the NPP to prominence as agents of change untarnished by establishment politics. The NPP’s landslide victory, including wins in Tamil-majority northern regions, underscores a nationwide rejection of entrenched elites. With a commanding majority, Dissanayake plans to advance a leftist agenda focused on anti-corruption reforms, expanded social welfare, and potentially a new constitution. However, implementing these reforms may strain Sri Lanka’s fragile economic recovery, raising questions about balancing political transformation with fiscal stability.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 WASHINGTON AUTHORISES UKRAINE’S USE OF LONG–RANGE MISSILES TO TARGET RUSSIAN TERRITORY

US Authorization of Long-Range Missiles

The United States' decision to lift its ban on Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles to target Russian territory marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict. Senior Russian lawmakers, including Andrei Klishas and Vladimir Dzhabarov, warned that this move could provoke a dangerous response, with some predicting the collapse of Ukrainian statehood or the onset of World War III. The US has authorised the use of Atacms rockets with a range of 190 miles (300 km), citing the involvement of North Korean forces alongside Russia.

Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, confirmed the missile authorisation, indicating that the true impact would be felt on the battlefield. He stressed that strikes are not announced but are demonstrated through action, implying that any use of the long-range missiles will speak for itself.

Russian Retaliation and Civilian Casualties

On the heels of the US decision, Russia launched an assault on Ukraine’s power grid, firing 120 missiles and 90 drones. The strike caused widespread power outages and killed at least seven people. In Sumy, a Russian missile hit a residential building, killing ten civilians, including two children, and injuring dozens more. The attack underscores the ongoing violence and the looming threat of energy shortages as winter approaches.

Global Reactions and the Limitations of Diplomacy

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk criticised the ineffectiveness of phone diplomacy with Russian President Vladimir Putin, calling for stronger Western support for Ukraine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who recently spoke with Putin, defended his actions but acknowledged that little had changed in Russia’s approach to the war.

NATO’s Growing Military Presence

In response to the heightened tensions, NATO has increased its military activities in Europe. Finland, which joined the alliance in 2023, hosted its first large-scale artillery exercise, Dynamic Front 25, involving live-fire drills in Finland, Estonia, Germany, Romania, and Poland. This exercise highlights NATO's commitment to bolstering its defence capabilities amid the ongoing conflict.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 Ukraine top of the G20 agenda, says Starmer: Ukraine will dominate discussions this week as world leaders convene for the G20 summit, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has pledged. While Starmer ruled out direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, he emphasised the need for unwavering international support for Ukraine. Putin has opted not to attend the summit, delegating Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in his stead. En route to the meeting, Starmer underscored the significance of leaders gathering nearly 1,000 days into Russia's war on Ukraine. He highlighted troubling developments, including reports of North Korean soldiers being deployed in support of Russia. The UK leader reiterated his commitment to sustaining aid to Ukraine "for as long as it takes," stressing the importance of a united front against Russian aggression.

2️⃣ 🇸🇳 Senegal parliamentary elections underway: Senegalese voters headed to the polls on Sunday in a pivotal legislative election poised to shape the country’s political future. The election will determine whether President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, elected in March on an anti-establishment platform, can secure a parliamentary majority to advance his reform agenda. Faye has blamed the opposition-led assembly for stalling key promises, including anti-corruption measures, renegotiating foreign fishing permits, and increasing local benefits from natural resources. Forty-one candidate lists are contesting 165 parliamentary seats, with four major coalitions leading the race. Opposition figure Ousmane Sonko, Faye’s ally-turned-prime minister, did not attend the assembly amid opposition threats of a no-confidence vote. Despite Senegal’s markedly peaceful political atmosphere within the unstable Western Sahel, the campaign period was marked by violence—including party clashes, arson at opposition offices, and attacks on Sonko and allied figures. Faye dissolved parliament in September, triggering the snap election amidst heightened tensions.

3️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Israeli attacks kill Lebanese civil defence, health workers: Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon have killed 21 civil defence rescuers, marking one of the deadliest days for emergency workers since hostilities between Israel and Hizbollah erupted 13 months ago. Attacks targeted a state civil defence centre in Douris, near Baalbek, killing 15 paramedics and five bystanders. Rescue teams were still searching through rubble on Friday, struggling to recover remains for identification, with some bodies rendered unrecognisable by the blast’s intensity. Funerals have been delayed pending DNA tests. “Most were new volunteers. We were like brothers. I wish I had been with them,” said Haidar al-Afi, a long-time rescuer. Human Rights Watch reported that over 200 emergency workers have been killed, most since September 2024, amid intensified Israeli strikes. HRW's Lebanon researcher Ramzi Kaiss condemned the “horrifying” rise in attacks on healthcare workers and journalists.