Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily,

Today's dispatch highlights major developments from across the Middle East: Israeli airstrikes persist in devastating the southern Lebanese city of Nabatieh, while a new defence agreement between Egypt and Somalia raises concerns about increased regional tensions with Ethiopia. 

In Sudan, stalled peace negotiations in Switzerland precede a massacre in Sennar province, and a collision occurs between Chinese and Filipino vessels in the South China Sea.

Stay informed with these stories and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ Israeli strike kills ten in South Lebanon after Hezbollah releases video of 'underground city': This weekend saw the most intense violence since October 8 on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border, coinciding with mixed signals from recent talks in Doha. The escalation began with an Israeli raid on an alleged Hezbollah arms depot in Nabatieh, resulting in the deaths of 10 Syrian civilians, including children. In retaliation, Hezbollah fired Katyusha rockets at Ayelet HaShahar, marking the first attack on this Israeli site in the current conflict. This escalation came after Hezbollah released a video on Friday, titled "Imad 4," showcasing their "underground city" with tunnels and large missile launchers.

2️⃣ China-Philippines confrontation in the Sabina Shoal: Chinese and Philippine vessels collided on Monday near the disputed Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea, with both countries blaming each other. This incident is part of ongoing tensions, including disputes around the Second Thomas Shoal, where a Philippine warship is stationed. China Coast Guard spokesperson Geng Yu claimed a Philippine vessel "deliberately collided" with a Chinese ship and accused the Philippine coast guard of illegally entering Chinese waters. Meanwhile, Manila’s National Task Force on the West Philippine Sea reported that two of its coast guard ships were damaged due to "unlawful and aggressive manoeuvres" by Chinese vessels.

3️⃣ Egypt and Somalia sign a defence pact amid escalating regional instability: The agreement followed talks between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud during Mohamud's two-day visit to Cairo. Somalia described the pact as a crucial step towards strengthening security ties. At a joint news conference, Mohamud called the agreement "historic," highlighting its role in fostering a shared defence strategy against international terrorism, which Somalia faces domestically and abroad. The Somali presidential palace stated that the agreement would facilitate the exchange of knowledge and expertise to promote peace and security at regional, continental, and international levels. Egypt also pledged support for a new African Union peacekeeping mission to Somalia, set to replace the current force. This follows a controversial Somaliland-Ethiopia memorandum of understanding in January 2024, which Mogadishu viewed as a threat to Somalia's territorial integrity, further heightening regional tensions.

4️⃣ Kursk offensive: Ukraine has announced the destruction of a second bridge across the River Seym in Russia's Kursk region, following a similar attack in recent days. This move is part of Ukraine's cross-border offensive that began on August 6. On Friday, Ukraine reported striking a bridge in the Russian town of Glushkova. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk shared an aerial video on Telegram showing an explosion at the bridge near the Russian town of Zvannoye. He stated that these attacks aim to disrupt Russian supply lines, emphasising the use of precision air strikes to hinder enemy logistics. Hours after the attack, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy commended the military's efforts and outlined the objectives of the operation for the first time.

5️⃣ Lula-Maduro dispute continues: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has sharply criticised Venezuela's "authoritarian" regime, calling it "unpleasant" as the country faces escalating political unrest and upcoming protests.  In a Friday interview, Lula condemned Nicolás Maduro’s administration, which he has yet to recognize as legitimate following the disputed July 28 election. Despite Maduro’s claims of victory, he has not provided evidence, while opposition rival Edmundo Gonzalez has published data suggesting he won. Lula, who has long been critical of Maduro, has demanded the release of voting tallies for verification. His recent remarks highlight growing frustration with Maduro's failure to address election transparency.

Major Story

SUDAN’S RAPID SUPPORT FORCES IMPLICATED IN BRUTAL ATTACK IN SENNAR PROVINCE, AFTER FAILED PEACE TALKS

Sudanese paramilitary fighters have attacked the central village of Galgani in Sennar province, killing at least 85 people, including women and children, while injuring over 150, authorities and residents reported on Saturday. 

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) looted, burned, and targeted the unarmed villagers late in July and into August. The RSF's assault came after villagers resisted attempts to abduct and sexually assault women and girls, according to Sudan's Foreign Ministry.

This attack adds to a series of atrocities by the RSF, including massacres and rapes, since the conflict began in April last year, following escalating tensions between the RSF and the Sudanese military.

On Thursday, hundreds of fighters from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) launched a devastating attack on the village of Galgani in Sennar province, looting and burning homes and public buildings. The violence followed an earlier attempt by the villagers to repel a smaller RSF group. 

The RSF retreated briefly but returned in force with pickup trucks and heavy weapons, according to local residents and a health worker. As of Friday, the local medical center reported receiving at least 80 bodies, including 24 women and children. Villager Mohamed Tajal-Amin noted seeing seven bodies on the street and lamented that locals were unable to recover and bury the dead due to ongoing RSF presence.

The RSF has not commented on the attack. This latest incident follows a June assault on the provincial capital of Singa, where the RSF looted the market and occupied the hospital, displacing thousands.

The U.S. is spearheading efforts to revive peace talks between the RSF and Sudanese military, which began last week in Switzerland but have seen limited participation. The RSF's delegation attended but did not engage in the meetings. 

These talks are part of international attempts to address the conflict, which has caused tens of thousands of deaths and severe famine conditions, particularly in Darfur. The crisis has led to the world's largest displacement emergency, with over 10.7 million people displaced, including 2 million who have sought refuge in neighbouring countries.

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Other News

1️⃣ Belarus: President Alexander Lukashenko announced that nearly a third of Belarus’ army is now stationed along the border with Ukraine, responding to what he describes as Ukraine's "aggressive policy." Meanwhile, Ukraine downplayed the situation, stating there has been no significant change in Belarusian troop movements. Lukashenko's comments come amid rising tensions following a Ukrainian incursion into Russia earlier this month.

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Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

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