Geopolitics Daily
Posts
📰 M23 pushes south

📰 M23 pushes south

and Trump hits ICC

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
February 07, 2025

Hello,

Latin America dominates today’s headlines. Ahead of Ecuador’s 2025 elections, the re-election of Noboa could undermine regional norms and stability, while Nicaragua amends its constitution, granting sweeping powers to the executive.

Meanwhile, Iraq plans to repatriate jailed ISIS militants, and Trump imposes economic sanctions on the International Criminal Court, offering further political cover for Israel.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇿🇦 Rubio refuses to attend G20 meeting in Johannesburg: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has accused South Africa of “anti-Americanism” and declined to attend an upcoming G20 meeting in Johannesburg, escalating diplomatic tensions under President Trump’s administration. In a post on X, Rubio reiterated Trump’s unfounded claim that South Africa was expropriating private property and criticised the G20’s focus on “solidarity, equality, & sustainability.” South African President Cyril Ramaphosa indirectly rebuked Trump and Rubio in his State of the Nation address, denouncing nationalism and protectionism while affirming that South Africa would not be “bullied.” The dispute follows Trump’s claim that South Africa was “confiscating land” and his decision to halt U.S. funding pending an investigation, despite South African officials insisting that land reform efforts remain lawful and aimed at addressing historical inequities.

2️⃣ 🇩🇪 Musk endorses far-right AfD ahead of German elections: With Germany’s election approaching, Elon Musk has openly endorsed the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), urging Germans to move past ‘historical guilt.’ The AfD, now Germany’s second-most popular party, is unlikely to join a governing coalition but has already influenced political discourse. Opposition leader Friedrich Merz controversially relied on AfD votes to push an anti-asylum motion through parliament, breaking a long-standing political taboo. Meanwhile, Musk’s support has amplified the AfD’s global profile, raising concerns about the party’s growing influence, its impact on Germany’s democratic norms, and whether Merz’s CDU could deepen its cooperation with the far right.

3️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 M23 begins new offensive, pushing towards Bukavu: Rwanda-backed M23 rebels have launched a new offensive in eastern DRC, just days before Presidents Félix Tshisekedi and Paul Kagame are set to attend a crisis summit. The UN reports that the battle for Goma, seized last week by M23 and Rwandan forces, has left at least 2,900 dead. Despite a self-declared ceasefire, M23 fighters have captured a key mining town in South Kivu, pushing towards Bukavu, sparking intense clashes near Nyabibwe. The escalating violence has prompted regional bodies, mediators, and international organisations to push for a diplomatic resolution, but DRC’s foreign minister has criticised the global response as mere rhetoric.

4️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇹🇷 🇺🇸 U.S. to withdraw troops from northeastern Syria, disastrous implications for Kurds: The U.S. Department of Defense is preparing contingency plans for a complete troop withdrawal from Syria, according to NBC News, citing two defense officials. This follows growing interest from President Donald Trump and his inner circle in ending the U.S. military presence there. As a result, the Pentagon is drafting timelines for withdrawal within 30, 60, or 90 days. This withdrawal could have dire consequences for Kurdish populations in northeastern Syria, who have played a key role in U.S.-backed operations against ISIS. Without U.S. support, they would be highly vulnerable to an offensive by Türkiye and its allied militias, which view Kurdish forces as a security threat.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Trump places economic sanctions on ICC: President Donald Trump has issued an executive order imposing economic and travel sanctions on individuals involved in ICC investigations targeting U.S. citizens or allies like Israel. Meanwhile, Egypt has condemned Trump’s proposal to relocate millions of Palestinians from Gaza, warning it could reignite conflict, while Jordan fears it will destabilise the region and threaten its peace treaty with Israel. Trump has also stated that once Gaza’s population is resettled elsewhere, Israel will transfer control of the territory to the U.S., eliminating the need for American troops on the ground. In response, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has directed the military to draft a plan for the "voluntary departure" of Gaza’s residents.

Major Story

🇪🇨 ECUADOR’S 2025 ELECTIONS: SECURITY CRISIS AND POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY

Ecuadorians will head to the polls on 9 February 2025 to elect a president and legislature amidst a deepening security crisis and a moribund economy. While some polls suggest conservative incumbent Daniel Noboa could secure a first-round victory, a runoff on 13 April remains likely due to a crowded field of 16 candidates. To win outright, a candidate must secure either 50% of the vote or 40% with a 10-point lead—a threshold no contender appears set to reach.

Public concern is dominated by Ecuador’s transformation into a hub for Andean cocaine trafficking, leading to violent turf wars. Murder rates have surged fivefold since 2020, making Ecuador South America’s most violent country. Organised crime controls urban neighbourhoods and rural areas, expanding into extortion, drug distribution, and illegal mining. Corruption has undermined institutions, with judges accepting bribes to release criminals and gangs running recruitment from inside prisons.

Security Policies and Electoral Uncertainty

Noboa’s "iron fist" approach has gained public approval, pushing the military to the forefront of security efforts. All candidates, including leftists, have integrated similar policies into their platforms. However, political violence has cast a shadow over the race. The 2023 assassination of Fernando Villavicencio, a vocal critic of organised crime, remains a chilling reminder of the risks politicians face.

Key Candidates and Potential Outcomes

The race is expected to be a rematch of the 2023 election between Noboa and Luisa González, a former legislator linked to ex-president Rafael Correa, who remains influential despite living in exile due to corruption charges. Noboa’s initial surge in popularity, reaching 80% after his harsh crackdown on crime, has since declined to just over 50% as violence persists. The situation has been exacerbated by the worst drought in six decades, leading to prolonged power outages and economic contraction.

With a high number of undecided voters, an unexpected candidate could emerge in the second round, according to analyst Glaeldys Gonzalez Calanche. Andrea González, the 2023 running mate of Villavicencio, has gained traction following a strong debate performance, positioning herself as a viable alternative to the traditional frontrunners. As Ecuador braces for a tense election, the outcome remains uncertain, shaped by the electorate's demand for security and stability.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇳🇮 Nicaragua constitution amended, granting absolute power to the executive: Nicaragua's President Daniel Ortega has secured final approval for constitutional reforms that expand his control over the judiciary, legislature, military, and media. Critics denounce the changes as entrenching an authoritarian dynasty, while allies claim they advance the country's revolutionary legacy. The reforms formalize Ortega's wife, Rosario Murillo, as "co-president" and grant her automatic succession, fueling speculation about a family power transfer. The U.N. has condemned the move, warning it undermines democratic freedoms and violates international commitments.

2️⃣ 🇮🇶 Iraq aims to repatriate jailed ISIS militants: The Iraqi government and the UN have agreed to repatriate all Iraqi families linked to IS from Syria's al-Hol camp by 2027. Migration ministry spokesperson Ali Abbas confirmed that 81 more families were recently transferred to al-Jada camp in Mosul, bringing the total repatriated since 2021 to over 2,600. With more than 20,000 Iraqis—mostly women and children—still in al-Hol, authorities are accelerating the process amid security concerns over radicalisation. Iraq’s National Security Council is preparing a large-scale repatriation effort, aiming to resolve the prolonged displacement crisis caused by the fight against IS.