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📰 Macron calls emergency summit

📰 Macron calls emergency summit

and African Union’s new leader

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
February 17, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics daily,

In Europe, the aftermath of Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference has prompted France to call for an emergency security summit, while Russia intensifies its attacks in Ukraine. Meanwhile, rival leaders in Cyprus are preparing for UN-led peace talks.

In Africa, the M23 rebels have advanced into Bukavu, eastern DRC’s second city, Sudan has granted Russia control over a strategic military base on the Red Sea, and the African Union has a new chairperson.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 🇬🇧 France to host emergency security summit for European leaders, following Munich conference: French President Macron has called an emergency summit in Paris, bringing together key European leaders to discuss security concerns and the ongoing war in Ukraine. The meeting will include leaders from Germany, Britain, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands, and Denmark, alongside NATO and EU officials. The summit follows reports of U.S. President Donald Trump’s phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding potential peace talks, which are set to take place in Saudi Arabia without EU or Ukrainian involvement. As European nations face increasing uncertainty, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized the need for Europe to take a more active role in NATO, warning that the region is at a pivotal moment for its security.

2️⃣ 🇩🇯 🇪🇹 Djibouti’s foreign minister elected as head of African Union: Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf has been elected as the next chair of the African Union Commission, defeating Kenya’s Raila Odinga and Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato in a vote at the AU summit in Addis Ababa. Youssouf, who has served as Djibouti’s foreign minister since 2005, will replace Chad’s Moussa Faki and lead the AU’s 55-member secretariat for the next four years. His tenure comes at a critical time, with military coups destabilising West Africa and escalating conflict in eastern DRC. AU has often faced criticism for its limited response to such crises, and Youssouf will be under pressure to enhance the bloc’s effectiveness in addressing Africa’s security challenges.

3️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Russia attacks Chernobyl, amid negotiations: Russia’s attack on Chernobyl amid ongoing diplomatic talks signals a strategic shift, blending military aggression with psychological warfare. By targeting a site deeply tied to nuclear disaster, Moscow aims to pressure Ukraine and NATO into concessions while avoiding direct nuclear escalation. This aligns with the "stability-instability paradox," where nuclear deterrence prevents mutually destructive war but emboldens medium-intensity conflicts. Meanwhile, NATO faces a crucial decision: reinforce Ukraine militarily or seek a settlement that may involve concessions. With European leaders stressing Ukraine’s role in negotiations and U.S. officials urging Europe to take the lead, the West’s next move will shape the conflict’s trajectory.

4️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 M23 enters Bukavu, eastern DRC’s second city: Rwanda–backed M23 have entered Bukavu, the second-largest city in eastern DRC, following a swift advance, according to South Kivu’s governor. Congolese forces withdrew to prevent urban combat, while the government confirmed Rwandan troops were present alongside the rebels. The takeover of Bukavu, days after capturing Goma, marks M23’s most significant territorial expansion since its resurgence in 2022. While some residents cheered the rebels' arrival, others fled in panic, with reports of looting, civilian casualties, and a ransacked WFP depot. The crisis coincides with an African Union summit in Ethiopia, where UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged de-escalation. The UK has condemned the incursion, calling for an immediate withdrawal of Rwandan forces. Meanwhile, Rwanda denies supporting M23, despite UN reports indicating Kigali’s direct involvement.

5️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇷🇺 Sudan allows Russian administration of Red Sea military base: Sudan has confirmed that plans for Russia’s first naval base in Africa will proceed, ending years of delays over the Red Sea facility. During a visit to Moscow, Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Youssef Ahmed al-Sharif stated there were “no obstacles” to implementing the 2020 agreement, which allows Russia to station up to four naval ships, including nuclear-powered vessels, for 25 years. While Sudan’s internal power struggles previously stalled ratification, Moscow has gradually strengthened ties with the Sudanese army, especially after Wagner’s backing of the paramilitary RSF complicated relations. If finalised, Russia’s base will place it alongside the U.S. and China in the Red Sea, a key global trade route linking the Suez Canal to the Indian Ocean.

Major Story

🇩🇪 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE: THE U.S. WILL ‘STEP AWAY FROM EUROPE’S SECURITY ARCHITECTURE, SAYS VANCE

The question dominating Europe’s security discussions is: Who will defend the continent if the U.S. pulls back its military presence? This issue dominated the Munich Security Conference, where European leaders were reluctant to step forward, despite President Trump’s calls for Europe to take on more responsibility.

Currently, NATO relies heavily on U.S. support, with increasing pressure on Europe to invest in its own defense. Countries like Poland, Italy, and the UK are taking on larger roles, but no single European power seems ready to fully fill the void left by the U.S. The alliance’s defense strategy is evolving to lessen its dependence on the U.S. military, with plans to increase European military readiness. NATO's new target for defense spending is rising to +3% of GDP.

While some European leaders are willing to step up, the challenge remains in coordinating the continent’s resources. Military readiness and funding are key issues, particularly with complex weapons systems like long-range missiles. The U.K. and European militaries may struggle to match U.S. capabilities, leaving NATO to defend Europe as a collective.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇺🇸 Modi meets Trump at the White House: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, reaffirming their commitment to strengthening bilateral ties. The leaders announced plans to negotiate a bilateral trade initiative (BTI), aiming for a phased agreement later this year. Defense cooperation was also emphasized, with discussions on expanding military interoperability, joint deployments in the Indo-Pacific, and potential U.S. arms sales, including fifth-generation fighter jets. While trade barriers remain a sticking point, India’s recent tariff reductions were acknowledged, and investment commitments from Indian firms featured prominently. Despite uncertainties around climate cooperation and some bilateral forums, the visit set an ambitious agenda, underscoring India’s rising economic influence and shared strategic concerns with the U.S., particularly regarding China.

2️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇷🇺 Syria may allow Russia to continue operating its Mediterranean naval bases: Syria’s Defence Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra suggested that Russia could retain its Mediterranean military bases if it serves Syria’s national interests, as the transitional government reassesses foreign alliances after Bashar al-Assad’s ousting. Moscow, which backed Assad militarily for years, is in talks to maintain its bases in Tartous and Latakia, though Abu Qasra stressed Syria must benefit from any agreement. Meanwhile, discussions with the U.S. and Turkey over their troop presence continue, with Ankara proposing a regional coalition to combat IS, potentially diminishing Washington’s role. The fate of Kurdish-controlled areas remains unresolved, with Syria’s new leadership favouring a peaceful resolution but insisting on full control over its territory.

3️⃣ 🇨🇾 🇹🇷 🇬🇷 🇺🇳 Cyprus’ rival leaders ready to engage in UN-led peace talks: The rival leaders of Cyprus have agreed to attend a U.N.-led meeting next month, aiming to revive peace talks after an eight-year deadlock. However, deep divisions persist between Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar and Greek Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides over the island’s future, with Turkish Cypriots pushing for sovereign equality while Greek Cypriots reject any formal partition. U.N. Under-Secretary-General Rosemary DiCarlo met separately with both leaders, as well as Cyprus’ guarantor states—Greece, Turkey, and the U.K.—to prepare for the talks. While U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres remains committed to brokering a resolution, longstanding disputes, including military presence, intervention rights, and border crossings, highlight the complexity of achieving a lasting peace.