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In Latin America, Guyana holds a pivotal election over vast oil revenues, while in Nicaragua two opposition figures die in state custody. Elsewhere, South Korea reports 2,000 North Korean troops killed fighting in Ukraine as EU defense spending reaches a record high.

Our lead story focuses on Mali, where Bamako’s wager on Wagner has soured, as the junta learns that mercenaries may win battles but cannot deliver peace.

Read more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇷🇺 🇮🇳 Xi unveils alternative financial order, signs rapprochement with India: China and Russia used the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin to present their vision of an alternative global order, framing it against US dominance. President Xi Jinping pledged new financial backing for SCO members, including $280m in grants, $1.4bn in loans, and the creation of a development bank, while unveiling a “Global Governance Initiative” promoting multilateralism and sovereign equality. Russia’s Vladimir Putin hailed the bloc as the foundation of a new Eurasian security system. The SCO, long seen as symbolic, is expanding influence as Global South states demand greater voice in world affairs. Xi and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi signalled rapprochement just days after Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods. Leaders will remain in China for a military parade alongside North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.

2️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇷🇺 🇧🇾 European states fortify borders with Russia and Belarus amid security fears: Nearly eight decades after Churchill warned of an “iron curtain” dividing Europe, it is now Western states building the barriers. Finland, sharing an 832-mile frontier with Russia, is constructing new fences covering 15% of its border by 2026, backed by a $400m budget. The Baltic states and Poland are accelerating a joint “East Shield” project—434 miles of walls, bunkers, antitank ditches and minefields—costing more than £2bn. Latvia alone will spend $350m, while Lithuania plans 30 miles of fortified defences and reclamation ditches. In 2024, six nations, including Norway, agreed to build a 1,850-mile “drone wall” using radars and electronic warfare to counter incursions. Leaders say the aim is deterrence and control, fearing Moscow could redirect its forces once the Ukraine war quiets.

3️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇸🇸 RSF drone strikes forces Sudan to shut down Heglig oil hub, threatening South Sudan’s exports: Sudan’s Ministry of Energy has ordered an emergency shutdown of the Heglig oil facilities after a drone strike blamed on the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), raising fears of major disruptions to South Sudan’s crude exports. The early-morning attack on Aug. 30 damaged infrastructure and forced the evacuation of staff, with operators PETCO and 2B OPCO told to halt production. Heglig is the main transit hub for South Sudan’s 110,000 daily barrels of oil, all of which flow through Port Sudan. The suspension threatens the fragile economy of South Sudan, which relies almost entirely on oil revenue. The RSF had already struck the site days earlier, killing five workers. Industry officials warned that continued violence could trigger a complete shutdown, exacerbating instability across both Sudans.

4️⃣ 🇲🇽 🇺🇸 President Sheinbaum meets Secretary Rubio as US–Mexico tensions mount: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Mexico City for his first official visit, a trip that underscores strained relations between the two neighbours. President Claudia Sheinbaum will host him at the National Palace on Wednesday, seeking cooperation on migration, trade, and security. She has also pressed Washington for greater transparency over plea deals struck with cartel leaders tried in the US, criticising what she sees as affronts to Mexican sovereignty. Rubio, a Cuban American conservative known for his hard line on Mexico, has previously labelled cartels “terrorists.” His visit comes amid disputes over sanctions on Mexican banks, DEA announcements of operations Mexico says do not exist, and frictions over fentanyl trafficking. Both sides will test whether shared interests can outweigh deep mistrust.

5️⃣ 🇳🇮 Two opposition figures die in Nicaragua state custody: Nicaraguan opposition lawyer Carlos Cardenas has died in state custody two weeks after his arrest during police raids targeting government critics, local media and opposition groups reported. Authorities have not commented. Cardenas, previously jailed after the 2018 protests, is the second prominent critic reported dead in detention within days, following activist Mauricio Alonso, detained in July. Opposition coalition GCON condemned the case, stating the “dictatorship has handed over another dead political prisoner.” Since 2019, at least five government opponents are reported to have died in custody as President Daniel Ortega and Vice President Rosario Murillo continue a sweeping crackdown on dissent, arresting hundreds of political opponents and silencing civil society.

Major Story

🇲🇱 🇷🇺 MALI’S GAMBLE ON WAGNER: FROM HOPE TO DISILLUSION

In early August, Timbuktu welcomed back more than 200 crates of priceless manuscripts, safeguarded since jihadists overran northern Mali in 2012. The junta in Bamako, in power since 2021, heralded their return as proof that security was improving under its leadership and with the support of Russia’s Wagner Group. Yet beneath the symbolism, the reality is grim. Violence is intensifying, the army is fracturing, and Wagner’s heavy-handed methods are deepening rather than resolving Mali’s insecurity.

Colonel Assimi Goïta, Mali’s interim president, rose to power promising sovereignty, a break from French dominance, and a more aggressive fight against jihadists. Wagner’s arrival in 2021 briefly raised hopes, especially after helping retake Kidal in 2023. But jihadist-linked deaths have quadrupled since their deployment, averaging over 3,000 annually. The JNIM network is not only expanding but striking economic hubs, demonstrating that Wagner’s brutal counter-insurgency has backfired. According to ACLED, four out of five civilian deaths in the past year were caused not by jihadists but by Malian forces and Wagner fighters.

Fractures Within the Army, Limits of Russian Influence

The mercenaries’ methods—blockading towns, indiscriminate killings, and backing militias accused of ethnic cleansing—have alienated civilians and embittered Malian officers. Soldiers complain of racism, disregard for command, and preferential treatment for Russians during evacuations. A senior officer lamented that Mali had “gone from the frying pan to the fire.” The August purge of generals critical of Wagner underscored tensions at the heart of the army, raising speculation about future coups.

Unlike in the Central African Republic or Sudan, Wagner has failed to secure lucrative mining concessions in Mali, Africa’s second-largest gold producer. The junta has resisted ceding major mines, instead using Russia’s presence as leverage to extract more revenue from Western operators. Even attempts to capture small-scale artisanal gold have floundered. Wagner’s financial model, once funded through Mali’s budget, may now require direct subsidies from Moscow. With the group rebranded as “Africa Corps” and placed under tighter Kremlin control, its autonomy and appeal are diminishing.

Searching for Alternatives

Public support for Wagner has collapsed. Many Malians now see the Russians as no better than their French predecessors. While Goïta remains cautious, analysts suggest he is exploring new security partnerships, with Turkey supplying drones, Gulf states investing regionally, and U.S. officials floating mineral and security cooperation. Mali’s leaders are discovering what Wagner’s critics long warned: mercenaries can win battles, but they cannot build peace.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇬🇾 Guyana votes in high-stakes election over oil wealth: Guyana held one of its most consequential elections in decades on Monday, with voters choosing who will control an estimated $10bn in annual revenue from offshore oil and gas. The South American nation, once reliant on gold, sugar, and rice, now produces nearly 900,000 barrels of oil daily, making it the world’s fastest-growing economy, with GDP expanding by an average of 15% annually since 2019. The race is dominated by President Irfaan Ali’s ruling People’s Progressive Party and the opposition A Partnership for National Unity, led by Aubrey Norton. A new party, We Invest in Nationhood, led by billionaire Azruddin Mohamed, has drawn support from younger voters despite U.S. sanctions over alleged corruption. International observers, including the Carter Center and OAS, are monitoring the vote amid tensions with Venezuela.

2️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇰🇷 🇰🇵 🇪🇺 South Korea says 2,000 North Korean troops killed in Ukraine as EU defense spending hits record: South Korea’s intelligence agency reported that roughly 2,000 North Korean soldiers fighting alongside Russia in Ukraine have been killed. The disclosure comes as the European Union announced defense spending will reach an unprecedented €380 billion ($444 billion) this year, driven by the war. In Russia, a Ukrainian drone strike triggered evacuations in Rostov-on-Don, while Moscow’s latest assault on the Kyiv region left one civilian dead. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz branded Vladimir Putin “probably the biggest war criminal of our time,” arguing Russia will only accept a ceasefire through “financial exhaustion,” not diplomacy.

3️⃣ 🇧🇪 🇵🇸 Belgium signals intent to recognise Palestinian state: Belgium will move toward recognising a Palestinian state, Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot announced, joining a growing list of nations preparing to formalise support. The official declaration is expected at the UN General Assembly on September 9, though conditioned on the release of all Israeli hostages and the removal of Hamas from political power, making immediate recognition unlikely. Prévot also unveiled measures targeting Israel’s occupation policies, including banning settlement goods, sanctioning violent settlers. He urged the EU to suspend its Association Agreement with Israel to increase pressure. The move reflects shifting European sentiment as protests spread and political divisions deepen, even as Israel’s economic, military, and academic ties to Europe remain strong.

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Book Shelf

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Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

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