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📰 Managing U.S.-China strategic competition

📰 Managing U.S.-China strategic competition

and BRICS leaders gather in Rio

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
July 08, 2025

Hello,

In Rio de Janeiro, BRICS leaders call for an unconditional ceasefire in Gaza, while U.S. President Trump accuses the bloc of undermining U.S. interests as it reaffirmed its commitment to multilateralism. In the Red Sea, Yemen’s Houthi movement claims to have sunk a ship in a maritime drone strike, while Washington has lifted its terrorist designation of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, Syria’s former al-Qaeda affiliate.

In our lead story, we break down Zhou Bo’s policy roadmap for managing China–U.S. strategic competition through sustained communication and mutual restraint.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇧🇷 🇺🇸 Trump threatens tariffs on BRICS as bloc defends multilateralism: President Donald Trump threatened punitive tariffs on BRICS countries after accusing them of being “anti-American,” prompting sharp rebukes at Monday’s BRICS summit in Rio. Brazilian President Lula responded defiantly, saying, “The world doesn’t need an emperor,” and reiterated his call for alternatives to U.S. dollar-dominated trade. While Trump’s administration has not yet enacted a 10% tariff, it warned it may do so against nations with "anti-American" policies. Other BRICS leaders dismissed the threat, calling for trade cooperation and denouncing tariffs as coercive. The bloc’s joint statement condemned the recent bombing of member Iran and warned that rising tariffs undermine global trade. With traditional Western forums weakened by internal rifts, BRICS positions itself as a multilateral alternative. Over 30 nations, including Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, are seeking deeper engagement with the bloc despite U.S. pressure.

2️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Ukraine shifts to micro-fortifications as Russian drones reshape battlefield: Facing relentless Russian drone and infantry assaults, Ukraine is revamping its frontline defences—shifting from expansive trench systems to smaller, camouflaged fortifications designed for platoon-sized units. The move responds to Russia’s shift away from large-scale armoured offensives, but implementation remains chaotic. Uneven construction, poor coordination, and a severe troop shortage undermine the new strategy. In regions like Sumy and Kharkiv, trench lines remain incomplete or misaligned, while local authorities struggle to mobilise timely defences. Soldiers report being forced to dig frontline trenches during active combat and lament that hard-won time was squandered on delayed preparations. Though Ukraine has spent over €900 million on fortifications, the success of any system ultimately depends on sufficient manpower—and Kyiv is still badly outnumbered across its 1,200-km front.

3️⃣ 🇧🇷 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 BRICS leaders demand unconditional Gaza ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal: At the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, leaders of the 11-member bloc issued a strong call for an “immediate, permanent and unconditional ceasefire” in Gaza, urging all parties to negotiate in good faith. They demanded a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and other occupied Palestinian territories. The joint statement also condemned attacks on Iran’s civilian and nuclear infrastructure as violations of international law, and expressed deep concern for Palestinian suffering under Israeli bombardment. Simultaneously, it denounced a recent terrorist attack in Kashmir. On global trade, BRICS criticised rising tariffs and backed Iran and Ethiopia’s WTO accession while pushing for restoration of the WTO’s dispute resolution mechanism. The statement comes as Israel-Hamas truce talks resume in Doha and Netanyahu prepares for White House talks with President Trump.

4️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Hizbollah won’t disarm until Israel withdraws from southern Lebanon, says Qassem: Speaking at an Ashura gathering in Beirut’s southern suburbs, Hizbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem reiterated that the group will not disarm or soften its stance while Israel continues air strikes and occupies strategic areas in southern Lebanon. Qassem said resistance would persist until Israeli forces withdraw, prisoners are freed, and reconstruction begins. Despite a U.S.-brokered ceasefire in November 2024, Israel has maintained control over five border points and carried out near-daily strikes, killing 250 people. Qassem condemned regional normalisation efforts and dismissed U.S. demands for Hizbollah to disarm. The speech, delivered amid new Israeli air raids in the South and in the Beqaa valley, comes in advance of a U.S. diplomatic visit to Beirut.

5️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 🇴🇲 Iran seeks security guarantees as indirect nuclear talks with United States resume: Iran and the United States are preparing to restart indirect nuclear talks, likely by next week, in what would be their first diplomatic engagement since May. The negotiations, hosted by Oman and potentially Norway, follow escalating tensions after Israeli and U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June, which derailed previous discussions. Tehran now demands a comprehensive deal that includes binding security assurances against future attacks. On June 25, Iran’s parliament passed legislation suspending all cooperation with the IAEA, a move formalised on July 2. While Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to its NPT obligations, the IAEA pulled its inspectors from Iran over safety concerns. With Israel still opposed to any agreement that leaves Iran’s enrichment intact, prospects for genuine progress remain fraught.

Major Story

🇨🇳 🇺🇸 MANAGING CHINA-U.S. COMPETITION: TOWARD MUTUALLY ASSURED COEXISTENCE

The future of international stability hinges on whether China and the United States—today’s preeminent powers—can forge a relationship that balances cooperation with competition. Unlike the Cold War standoff between Washington and Moscow, today’s rivalry lacks clear spheres of influence or nuclear parity to restrain conflict. Instead, China’s growing military and technological clout is narrowing the gap with the U.S., raising the stakes for miscalculation in contested spaces like the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.

To prevent a slide into confrontation, Chinese strategist Zhou Bo argues for a paradigm of “copetition”—a practical blend of cooperation and competition. He proposes sixteen measures, including revitalised military dialogues, direct communication between air and naval forces, and mechanisms for crisis de-escalation. Strategic communication, Zhou insists, is not contingent on trust but must be routine to reduce risks of misinterpretation.

Strategic Patience and Mutual Restraint

While Donald Trump’s return to power has intensified zero-sum dynamics, with his administration’s rhetoric amplifying threat narratives, Zhou urges leaders to focus on manageability, not dominance. The key is not ideological alignment, but a shared baseline: avoiding conflict. Despite sharp divergences, neither Washington nor Beijing can rally the world into rival blocs. Many U.S. allies maintain deeper economic ties with China, and the post-liberal world order resists binary frames like democracy versus autocracy.

Dialogue, Not Doctrine

Trust may be elusive, but sustained dialogue remains vital. Despite past disruptions—such as Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 Taiwan visit—channels of military communication are reopening, including high-level video talks between PLA and U.S. Indo-Pacific Commanders. Yet Zhou warns that consultations must go beyond optics. Regular officer exchanges, hotlines, and incident management protocols must be normalised to avoid accidents and escalation.

Taiwan and the Test of Restraint

The Taiwan Strait remains the flashpoint most likely to spark conflict. As Washington bolsters Taiwan militarily, Beijing steps up incursions and exercises. Yet Zhou notes Beijing has not abandoned peaceful reunification, nor announced a timetable for force. The U.S., he suggests, should avoid undermining its own One China policy if peace is to hold.

Common Ground in New Domains

Finally, Zhou highlights areas where cooperation is both possible and necessary: AI regulation, cyber stability, and space governance. Dialogue on nuclear risk reduction—including no-first-use pledges—and coordination on crises like Ukraine and Gaza are examples of how even adversaries can act as responsible global stakeholders.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇮🇷 UN response to Iran attacks sees its credibility erode: On June 13, Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, killing over 11 scientists, with the U.S. following days later with coordinated bombings. The attacks, occurring amid nuclear talks, drew outrage but little accountability. UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed concern but stopped short of condemnation, contrasting his firmer responses to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Security Council held three emergency sessions, but leading UN figures avoided calling the attacks illegal. While Russia, China, and others denounced the strikes as flagrant violations of sovereignty, the U.S. and Israel invoked self-defence under Article 51. European countries urged diplomacy but tacitly supported the strikes. The UN’s muted reaction has reignited accusations of double standards, reinforcing perceptions that international law is applied unevenly—protecting the powerful, sidelining justice, and eroding the UN’s global legitimacy.

2️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇮🇱 Houthis claim first ship sinking this year in Red Sea attack: A Liberian-flagged cargo ship came under Houthi fire in the Red Sea, leaving two security guards injured and two missing, just a day after the group claimed to have sunk the Magic Seas, another vessel flying the same flag. The attacks coincide with renewed Israeli airstrikes on Houthi-held Yemeni ports and come amid fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations and post-strike nuclear diplomacy with Iran. The Houthis declared their maritime campaign would persist until Israel ends its war on Gaza. In response, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned of further strikes, equating the Houthi threat to Iran. The group retaliated with apparent missile fire on Israel. With over 100 merchant vessels targeted since late 2023, the Houthis’ disruption of Red Sea shipping is again drawing international attention

3️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇺🇸 Washington rescinds Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham designation as terrorist group: The United States has officially removed Syria’s Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from its list of foreign terrorist organisations, following the group’s role in toppling the Assad regime in late 2024. A 23 June memo signed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated the decision applies to both HTS and its predecessor, the al-Nusra Front. Led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa, HTS emerged from al-Qaeda’s Syria branch but has since renounced transnational jihad. The group is now engaged in indirect talks with Israel and has expressed interest in reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement. The move coincides with a broader US shift: President Donald Trump recently signed an executive order easing decades-long sanctions, paving the way for Gulf-led reconstruction. However, normalisation faces domestic backlash amid Israeli aggression in Gaza and Syria’s southwest.