Geopolitics Daily
Posts
📰 Markets surge after Japan deal

📰 Markets surge after Japan deal

and Iran to meet the E3

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
July 24, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Today, markets rally after President Trump announces a trade deal with Japan and hints at a forthcoming pact with the EU; Israel passes a motion to annex the West Bank; and Mozambique’s opposition leader rejects terrorism charges as politically motivated.

Meanwhile, in West Africa, a global rush to gold is drawing investment—and instability.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇻🇺 International Court of Justice rules states may owe reparations for failing to prevent climate harm: In a landmark opinion, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) has ruled that states have a legal duty to prevent climate damage and may be liable for reparations if they fail. The advisory opinion, requested by the UN and championed by Vanuatu, explicitly targets fossil fuels, declaring state inaction on emissions or subsidies a potential international wrongful act. The ICJ also held governments responsible for regulating private sector contributions to climate harm. The ruling affirms that climate inaction breaches existing treaties and customary international law, including the right to a clean and healthy environment. Although non-binding, the opinion is seen as legally authoritative and could influence future lawsuits and negotiations. Climate campaigners hailed it as a turning point for climate justice and accountability.

2️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇬🇧 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 🇺🇳 Iran–E3 meeting aims to defuse snapback threat: Amid rising tensions and the threat of renewed UN sanctions, Iran has agreed to meet with Britain, France, and Germany (the E3) in Istanbul on July 25 to discuss its nuclear programme. The E3 previously set an end-of-August deadline for Iran to show progress toward a nuclear deal or face the revival of sanctions under the “snapback” clause of UN Resolution 2231. Tehran, meanwhile, is coordinating with China and Russia to prevent snapback activation and has warned of harsh retaliation—including quitting the NPT—if sanctions return. Talks follow Israel’s deadly June strikes on Iranian leadership, sparking internal scrutiny and IRGC-linked media threats of escalation. A one-time extension of the snapback mechanism may delay confrontation, but deep mistrust makes a breakthrough unlikely.

3️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 🇺🇳 Over 100 aid, human rights NGOs sound alarm over Israeli starvation of Gaza: Dozens more Palestinian people have died from starvation under the U.S.- and Israeli-enforced siege on Gaza, bringing the known total to well over 100, mostly children. Over 100 aid and human rights organisations have warned their own workers are now starving, with some killed while trying to access food. At least 1,000 Palestinians have been shot dead by Israeli forces near aid distribution points, including those run by the Israel and U.S.-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. In a joint statement, groups such as MSF and Caritas condemned Israel’s restrictions and called for an immediate ceasefire, the opening of all crossings, and the restoration of a UN-led aid operation. Israel rejected the claims, launching a new offensive in Deir el-Balah where many aid groups operate.

4️⃣ 🇪🇷 🇪🇹 Eritrea exploits Tigray divisions as fears of renewed conflict grow in northern Ethiopia: Tensions are rising in northern Ethiopia amid reports of Eritrean troop movements and internal rifts within Tigray's leadership. Though the Pretoria peace deal ended a devastating two-year war in 2022, civilians remain fearful. Eritrea—excluded from the negotiations—has reportedly entrenched itself militarily and economically, looting Tigray during the conflict and profiting from illicit trade, according to The Sentry. Meanwhile, rival TPLF factions accuse one another of aligning with Eritrea, weakening regional unity. Analysts say Eritrea thrives on Ethiopia’s fragmentation and may support proxy actors like the Fano militia. Prime Minister Abiy’s strategy of keeping internal challengers divided ahead of 2026 elections adds to volatility. With the Pretoria Agreement faltering, observers warn that without political compromise, Ethiopia’s fragile peace may once again unravel.

5️⃣ 🇸🇿 🇺🇸 U.S. deportation deal with Eswatini sparks outrage over secrecy and human rights: Civil society groups and opposition leaders in Eswatini have condemned the U.S. for secretly deporting five foreign nationals to the kingdom, calling it “human trafficking disguised as diplomacy.” The men, from Vietnam, Jamaica, Laos, Yemen, and Cuba, were transferred under a U.S. policy of offshoring deportations to third countries, with Eswatini detaining them at a high-security prison. Local groups decried the lack of transparency, public consultation, and safeguards, warning the deal threatens both human rights and national security. A protest outside the U.S. embassy demanded the deportees' return. While U.S. officials defended the move, Eswatini’s largest opposition party, Pudemo, denounced the arrangement as a betrayal by the monarchy, and human rights groups called for the deal’s immediate suspension and disclosure.

Major Story

🇲🇱 🇧🇫 🇬🇭 🇨🇮 WEST AFRICA’S GOLD BOOM DRAWS INVESTORS—AND INSTABILITY

Amid global turbulence, investors have sought refuge in gold. The USD has fallen sharply, declining 10.7% since January 2025, while gold has surged 26%. This shift has turned global attention to West Africa, which produces about a quarter of the world’s gold. New discoveries, especially in Côte d’Ivoire, have followed, prompting a fresh wave of investment.

Governments turn to resource nationalism

As gold prices rise, West African governments are capitalising on the boom by tightening control over mining. Military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea have revised laws to increase state stakes, revoke foreign licences, and demand higher taxes. While egalitarian in theory, these policies have, in practice, delivered negligible profit redistribution and have instead fed kleptocratic institutions. In Mali, the junta seized Barrick Gold’s flagship mine, detained local staff, and banned exports. Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana—both democracies—are also revising mining codes to favour local ownership and restrict foreign participation.

Investment risk and shrinking returns

While higher revenues have benefited states—Mali’s mining income rose over 50% in 2024—uncertainty is growing. Investor confidence has been shaken by seizures, arrests, and tightening regulations. In Mali, gold output dropped 23% in 2024 amid disputes with Barrick Gold. Some governments appear less concerned, focusing instead on developing domestic expertise and infrastructure, such as new refineries in Bamako and Abidjan, funded by gold windfalls and foreign partners, including Russia.

Environmental pressures and security threats

The surge in gold prices has also revived artisanal mining. While vital to rural economies, this boom risks intensifying land disputes and environmental degradation, particularly in Ghana. Tensions are rising between informal miners and industrial companies, which now use drones to guard their concessions. Governments that appear to favour one side over the other may face political backlash or unrest.

Gold’s strategic value has also drawn the attention of jihadist groups across the Sahel. Militants have used gold mining to finance operations, exploit local grievances, and recruit new fighters. Attacks on gold sites, particularly in Burkina Faso, have been deadly and frequent. With jihadist groups such as the al-Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) expanding into western Mali and eastern Senegal—both rich in gold—industrial mines face mounting risks. Governments, already stretched by insurgencies, may struggle to maintain control over gold-rich zones.

Outlook

West Africa’s gold rush is yielding short-term gains but comes with long-term costs. Investor uncertainty, environmental degradation, and security threats are all rising in parallel with gold prices. Without careful governance, the region risks turning a windfall into fuel for conflict.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇯🇵 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 Markets surge after Trump announces trade deal with Japan and signals EU pact may follow: Global markets rallied following President Trump’s announcement of a trade deal with Japan, sparking optimism that a similar agreement with the EU is imminent. Tokyo’s Nikkei soared 3.5%, EU markets climbed, and US indices hit record highs. The U.S.–Japan deal imposes a 15% tariff on imports—lower than the threatened 25%—boosting shares in Japanese automakers. Investors welcomed the move, viewing it as a sign that Trump may avoid harsher trade measures. The EU is threatening retaliatory tariffs unless a deal is reached by next week. Though the new tariffs exceed pre-Trump levels, traders are prioritising reduced uncertainty. Economists caution that the agreements may raise inflation and weigh on supply chains, with only modest gains likely if EU talks follow Japan’s model.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 🇺🇳 Israel passes ‘symbolic’ motion to annex West Bank: In a sweeping vote, 71 Israeli lawmakers supported a non-binding motion calling for the full annexation of the already-occupied West Bank, applying Israeli law across the territory. The motion is illegal under international law, legal experts warn. The motion, introduced by ultranationalist MKs, declares the land an "inseparable part" of Jewish heritage and rejects any peace plan involving territorial concessions. Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana claimed Jews cannot “occupy” Judea, invoking biblical narratives. The vote comes as international momentum grows for Palestinian statehood, with France, Saudi Arabia, and others preparing a UN conference premised on the theoretical two-state solution. Recent recognitions by Ireland, Spain, and Mexico have escalated pressure on Israel, prompting some Israeli officials to threaten further annexation in response to shifting diplomatic winds.

3️⃣ 🇲🇿 Mozambique’s opposition leader denounces terrorism charges as politically motivated: Mozambican opposition figure Venancio Mondlane has denounced the charges against him as politically motivated, pledging to defend himself in court. Speaking after a meeting with the prosecutor on 22 July, Mondlane revealed the indictment, which includes five counts—among them incitement to terrorism, public incitement to crime, and inciting mass disobedience. Prosecutors accuse him of using social media to orchestrate a so-called “revolution,” disrupting public services, and prompting border closures. Mondlane, who recently returned from Europe fearing arrest, maintains he simply exposed electoral fraud. Welcoming the end of investigative secrecy, he says he will face trial with a clear conscience and support from local and international lawyers. No trial date has been announced, though he remains under judicial supervision.