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Today, India announces the killing of 31 alleged Maoist militants in its largest anti-Naxal operation to date, while Sudan’s capital suffers a blackout after RSF drone strikes on key infrastructure. In Europe, a new IISS report estimates it would cost $1 trillion and take 25 years for NATO allies to replace U.S. military support.

Our lead story examines the U.S.-China trade truce—unpacking its internal drivers, strategic calculations, and what the 90-day tariff freeze signals for global markets.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇪🇺 Chancellor Merz outlines vision for Germany to have Europe’s ‘most powerful military’: In his first address to the Bundestag as chancellor, Friedrich Merz pledged to make Germany’s military “the most powerful conventional force in Europe,” signalling a major shift toward rapid rearmament. While focused on foreign and defence policy, Merz swiftly turned to sensitive domestic issues such as immigration, underlining his conservative agenda. In a notable gesture of unity, Merz also thanked his predecessor, Olaf Scholz, acknowledging the former chancellor’s historic response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “Your reaction set the course — it was a defining moment. We thank you again today,” Merz said, despite having strongly criticised Scholz during the campaign.

2️⃣ 🇻🇪 🇬🇾 Tensions flare along Guyana–Venezuela border amid attacks in disputed Essequibo: Guyana’s military reported three separate attacks on its troops within 24 hours in the contested Essequibo region, heightening tensions with Venezuela, which plans to hold elections there this month. Armed assailants in civilian clothes targeted Guyanese patrols along the Cuyuní River, though no injuries were reported. The Guyana Defence Force vowed to defend the country’s territorial integrity, reaffirming that the region’s borders were settled in an 1899 arbitration. Venezuela, citing older territorial claims and buoyed by recent oil discoveries in Essequibo, has escalated rhetoric and moved to annex the region, despite an International Court of Justice ruling barring it from organizing elections there. The attacks have reignited fears of conflict in Latin America’s most geopolitically volatile frontier.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇸🇾 🇮🇱 Rubio says Damascus is open to Abraham Accords accession: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Syria’s foreign minister in Turkey to discuss potential steps toward lifting sanctions and restoring ties, following President Trump’s surprise meeting with interim Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. Rubio said the new leadership has indicated a desire for peace with all neighbours, including Israel, calling a stable Syria a potential regional breakthrough. While Israel remains sceptical, Rubio confirmed Trump’s plan to waive Caesar Act sanctions for 180 days, opening the door for investment and refugee remittances. However, he noted full repeal would depend on sustained progress, as Syria seeks to build a pluralistic post-Assad society amid lingering sectarian tensions.

4️⃣ 🇮🇶 🇸🇾 🇹🇷 Implications of PKK Disarmament for Iraq and Syria: The PKK’s decision to disband marks a turning point with wide-reaching consequences across Iraq and Syria. In northern Iraq’s Qandil Mountains, the longstanding headquarters of the group, uncertainty looms over the future of its fighters. Ankara’s assertive military strategy—framed as neutralising terrorism at the source—has involved cross-border operations that Baghdad views as violations of its sovereignty. As Syria's SDF considers absorbing itself into Damascus' armed forces, and with the PKK now banned in Iraq and disarmament under way, Turkey’s justification for its presence in Syria and Iraq weakens, though Ankara may seek to remain for broader strategic reasons. Economically, the move could stabilise Iraq’s Kurdish region, reduce attacks on infrastructure, and remove a barrier to large-scale projects like the Development Road. While it may ease tensions between rival Kurdish factions and Turkey, political rivalries and ideological divides are likely to persist.

5️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israeli strikes kill over 100 Palestinians in Gaza, IDF escalates West Bank raids: More than 100 Palestinians were killed in Israeli airstrikes across Gaza on Thursday, according to the enclave’s civil defence agency, as bombardments intensified despite mounting humanitarian concerns. New strikes were reported in southern Gaza, with casualties in Khan Younis and al-Mawasi. In the West Bank, Israeli forces conducted raids and reportedly used shoulder-fired missiles during a deadly operation in Tamoun. Meanwhile, the World Health Organization confirmed that Gaza’s last hospital offering cancer and cardiac treatment — the European Hospital in Khan Younis — was rendered non-functional after a nearby Israeli strike. WHO staff were evacuated under fire. The worsening crisis unfolds amid inflammatory calls from Israeli ministers for the destruction of Palestinian towns.

Major Story

🇨🇭 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 U.S.-CHINA TRADE TRUCE OFFERS TEMPORARY RESPITE

Following high-level negotiations in Geneva, the U.S. and China agreed to temporarily lower tariffs for a 90-day period starting 14 May. U.S. levies on Chinese exports will fall from 145% to 30%, while China will reduce its tariffs from 125% to 10%. This unexpected breakthrough eased global market anxiety, especially after President Trump’s earlier “Liberation Day” tariff campaign had notably excluded China from a moratorium. Both sides issued a joint statement underscoring their commitment to a stable and mutually beneficial economic relationship.

Internal Dynamics and Strategic Calculations

The talks also reveal shifting influence within Trump’s economic team. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, favouring a more measured approach, has eclipsed hardliner Peter Navarro. Bessent’s emphasis on “strategic decoupling” echoes former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s “de-risking” stance. Still, the broader consequences of Trump’s trade war remain unresolved, and China’s refusal to yield highlights its strengthened ability to retaliate asymmetrically.

The Road Ahead

While this de-escalation is a welcome pause, restoring long-term stability will require more than temporary relief. Deep mutual distrust persists: Washington fears Beijing’s exploitation of economic ties for strategic gain, while Beijing sees U.S. policy as an attempt to block its growth. Future diplomacy between Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will be crucial, but a full resolution will likely hinge on formally ending the trade war and re-establishing consistent bilateral engagement.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 Khartoum loses power supply as RSF drones target capital: Sudan’s civil war has entered a dangerous new phase, as the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) shift from ground offensives to strategic drone warfare. Overnight strikes on Wednesday knocked out key power stations in Omdurman, leaving Khartoum and surrounding areas without electricity well into Thursday. The RSF has also targeted critical infrastructure in Port Sudan — previously seen as a secure refuge — disrupting water access and forcing extended blackouts across the country. With over 13 million displaced and tens of thousands dead, Sudan’s war continues to escalate, driven by a power struggle over the country’s stalled civilian transition.

2️⃣ 🇮🇳 India kills 31 alleged Maoist rebels in ‘biggest-ever operation’ targeting Naxalism: Indian security forces have killed 31 Maoist fighters in what officials are calling the country’s most significant operation against Naxalite insurgents to date. The 21-day mission took place on Karreguttalu Hill along the Chhattisgarh-Telangana border, a former stronghold where rebels once trained and armed recruits. Home Minister Amit Shah and Prime Minister Narendra Modi praised the success, which saw no casualties among security personnel, as a major milestone in efforts to end the decades-long rebellion. Once controlling a third of India, the Maoist movement has steadily weakened, with over 700 Naxalites surrendering this year and the government aiming to eliminate the insurgency by March 2026.

3️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇺🇸 IISS report says replacing U.S. military support would cost Europe $1tn: A new report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies estimates that if the U.S. were to withdraw military support from Europe, it could take 25 years and up to $1 trillion for NATO countries to fully replace American assets and personnel. Key costs include procuring aircraft, naval vessels, and long-range defense systems, while harder-to-measure gaps—such as intelligence and nuclear capabilities—would remain. European industry would struggle to meet demand quickly due to supply chain, workforce, and regulatory hurdles, even with strong political will and increased budgets. Although Europe is boosting defense spending and awarding more contracts to local firms, the path to autonomous defense remains long and fraught with economic and political challenges.

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics