Geopolitics Daily
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📰 Milei quits WHO

📰 Milei quits WHO

and fighting engulfs eastern Congo

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
February 07, 2025

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France makes headlines today, insisting that EU funds should be exclusively allocated to European-made military systems, while Prime Minister Bayrou survives his first confidence vote. New Zealand expresses unease as China's Pacific footprint extends to the Cook Islands, and Argentine President Milei mirrors Trump's decision to withdraw from the WHO.

The main story today focuses on Europe’s policy options for engaging with Iran, in light of Trump’s likely continuation of a "maximum pressure" campaign.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇸🇦 🇵🇸 White House receives Netanyahu, Saudi Arabia opposes Trump’s ethnic cleansing proposition: Saudi Arabia rejected former US President Donald Trump’s assertion that Washington could “take over” Gaza, reaffirming that normalisation with Israel hinges on Palestinian statehood. The Saudi Foreign Ministry reiterated that the kingdom remains committed to establishing an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital and will not engage in diplomatic relations with Israel until that condition is met. Meanwhile, Jordan’s King Abdullah II condemned Israeli settlement expansion and any attempts to displace Palestinians, while Qatar cautioned against premature discussions on Gaza’s post-war governance.

2️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 M23’s unilateral ceasefire declaration false, says Kinshasa: The Congolese government has dismissed the M23 rebels’ unilateral ceasefire as “false communication,” while the U.N. has reported heavy fighting in eastern DRC. The M23, backed by an estimated 4,000 Rwandan troops, remains in control of Goma and has been advancing in South Kivu, though the U.N. has yet to confirm its approach toward Bukavu. DRC government insists that any negotiations must adhere to prior peace agreements, while Rwanda and M23 accuse Kinshasa of breaching past commitments. The conflict has resulted in mass casualties, with DRC’s interior minister claiming 2,000 deaths and reports of mass graves, while the U.N. health agency estimates at least 900 fatalities. As regional leaders prepare to meet in Tanzania, residents continue to bury victims, urging an end to the violence and the reopening of Goma’s airport for aid and evacuations.

3️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇫🇷 European capitals debate defence spending, procurement policy: As EU leaders convene in Brussels to shape Europe’s defence strategy, France stands largely alone in insisting that EU funds should exclusively support European-made military systems. However, many member states argue that barring U.S. arms manufacturers risks antagonising President Donald Trump, jeopardising transatlantic relations. Countries like Germany, Poland, and the Baltics prioritise maintaining close ties with Washington, especially as they seek to rapidly bolster their defences against Russia with off-the-shelf U.S. and South Korean weaponry. While France remains steadfast in its stance, others see purchasing American arms as a strategic necessity to ensure continued U.S. commitment to European security.

4️⃣ 🇰🇵 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 North Korean troops withdraw from Kursk: Reports indicate that North Korean troops deployed to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have been withdrawn from the front lines following significant casualties. South Korea’s Yonhap news agency, citing intelligence sources, stated that around 10,000 North Korean soldiers have been absent from combat zones for weeks, particularly in Russia’s Kursk region. Ukraine previously claimed to have captured or killed North Korean fighters in its August offensive, and South Korea’s National Intelligence Service estimates that by mid-January, 300 had died and 2,700 were wounded. Despite Pyongyang and Moscow’s silence on the deployment, reports suggest North Korea is preparing additional reinforcements to offset losses, raising concerns over further escalation in the conflict.

5️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇸🇾 Erdogan, al-Sharaa hold talks on Kurdish northeast: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met Syria’s interim leader Ahmed al-Sharaa in Ankara to discuss strengthening security ties, particularly regarding the presence of Kuridsh armed groups in northeastern Syria. This marked al-Sharaa’s second international visit since assuming office, following his meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh. Erdogan expressed support for Syria’s new leadership and reiterated Turkiye’s commitment to combating ISIL and Kurdish groups, including the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the People’s Protection Units (YPG). With Turkiye seeking greater influence in northern Syria, Erdogan also emphasized readiness to take over the administration of ISIL detention camps currently controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a key U.S. ally in the anti-ISIL coalition.

Major Story

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 IRAN IN 2025: MAXIMUM PRESSURE, NUCLEAR DIPLOMACY, AND A DECAYING REGIONAL PRESENCE

Over the past six months, Iran has faced mounting challenges across the region. Israeli strikes have significantly weakened allies in Lebanon while also targeting Iran’s own defence infrastructure. The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has stripped Tehran of a key ally and arms conduit. Domestically, widespread discontent threatens renewed protests. Despite these setbacks, Iran retains significant assets: an advanced missile arsenal, powerful non-state allies in Yemen and Iraq, and a nuclear program progressing beyond previous limits. Strengthened ties with Russia and China provide some strategic depth, yet Iran is more vulnerable than it has been in decades.

U.S. Strategy and Uncertain Policy Direction

The key question is how the U.S. will respond. While some within President Trump’s orbit view Iran’s current weakness as an opportunity to cripple its nuclear ambitions or even destabilise the regime, Trump himself appears reluctant to engage in another Middle Eastern conflict. A return to "maximum pressure" through intensified sanctions and military action against Iran’s regional allies is likely. Meanwhile, Iran signals a cautious openness to negotiations, creating an opportunity for Western powers to explore diplomacy beyond the nuclear issue, including arms transfers and regional security.

Europe’s Role in Mitigating Escalation

European-Iranian relations have deteriorated, largely due to Tehran’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. However, European diplomats maintain contact with their Iranian counterparts, recognising the risks of further Middle Eastern instability and the collapse of nuclear diplomacy. European leaders could leverage their influence to facilitate U.S.-Iran talks while preparing for potential snapback sanctions under UN Security Council Resolution 2231 if Iran does not acquiesce. They should also engage with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states to support regional de-escalation efforts.

The Diplomatic Clock is Ticking

With Iran’s nuclear program advancing, the window for diplomatic resolution is narrowing. If Iran refuses meaningful negotiations, European leaders should pressure the U.S. to ensure sanctions and military strategies serve defined, realistic objectives rather than escalation for its own sake. Engaging GCC states to consolidate Iran’s improving ties with regional players could further stabilise the region. Ultimately, Europe must use what leverage it has to privilege diplomacy—otherwise it risks further conflict.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇦🇷 🇺🇳 Milei withdraws Argentine support for WHO, emulating Trump: Argentinian President Javier Milei has announced Argentina’s withdrawal from the World Health Organization, citing its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic as a severe human rights violation. The decision, mirroring former U.S. President Donald Trump’s move, sparked criticism from opposition leaders and health organisations concerned about losing access to vital medical funding. Critics argue Milei lacks the authority to unilaterally sever ties, as congressional approval is required. His stance aligns closely with Trump, as he also plans to exit the Paris climate agreement and construct a border fence with Bolivia. While Milei views closer ties with Washington as beneficial, analysts warn Argentina lacks the economic strength to emulate U.S. policies. Meanwhile, his austerity measures continue to slash healthcare funding, with thousands of job cuts in critical health sectors.

2️⃣ 🇳🇿 🇨🇰 🇨🇳 New Zealand uneasy after China’s pacific footprint extends to Cook Islands: China stands to gain significant influence in the Pacific if its latest agreement with the Cook Islands moves forward, but the decision has caught New Zealand off guard, potentially violating long-standing constitutional arrangements. While the Cook Islands enjoys self-governance in free association with Aotearoa—allowing independent policy decisions—it must consult Wellington on matters of defence and security. Prime Minister Mark Brown, set to sign the deal in Beijing, insists on diversifying economic partnerships to sustain prosperity, yet New Zealand’s Foreign Minister Winston Peters warns of a lack of transparency. He emphasised that while the Cook Islands has autonomy, past agreements require consultation—something China is well aware of—raising concerns over the region’s geopolitical stability.

3️⃣ 🇫🇷 French prime minister survives first confidence vote: French Prime Minister François Bayrou survived a no-confidence vote after the Socialist Party (PS) and far-right National Rally (RN) declined to back the motion, leaving only 128 votes in favour—far below the 289 needed. The motion stemmed from Bayrou’s use of Article 49.3, a constitutional tool allowing his minority government to bypass parliamentary approval on the budget. The PS’s refusal to support the censure enraged its left-wing allies in the New Popular Front (NFP), with LFI leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon declaring the alliance effectively broken. As Bayrou prepares to push through more legislation using Article 49.3, triggering further no-confidence motions, the left faces mounting pressure to either mend its divisions or risk ceding ground to Marine Le Pen’s far-right in upcoming elections.