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📰 Modi accuses the U.S.

📰 Modi accuses the U.S.

and Trump calls for ceasefire

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
December 10, 2024

Hello,

In South Asia, tensions between Bangladesh and India deepen as thousands in Dhaka protest alleged attacks on a Bangladeshi diplomatic mission. Meanwhile, Indian Prime Minister Modi accuses the U.S. of attempting to undermine India.

In other headlines, Ukraine and Russia remain central to global focus, with Donald Trump calling for an immediate ceasefire to halt the ongoing conflict.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇧🇩 🇮🇳 Bangladesh-India ties continue to deteriorate as thousands protest in Dhaka: Thousands of members of youth and student groups affiliated with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party marched towards the Indian High Commission in Dhaka on Sunday, condemning alleged attacks on a Bangladeshi diplomatic mission and the desecration of the nation’s flags in India. The demonstration coincided with rising tensions between the neighbouring countries and came ahead of a scheduled visit by India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri to Bangladesh. This marks the first significant diplomatic engagement since the fall of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, now in exile in India.

2️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇺🇸 PM Modi accuses U.S. of trying to sabotage India: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has alleged that U.S. State Department officials, "deep state" elements, investigative journalists, and opposition leader Rahul Gandhi are collaborating to destabilise India. The accusation is notable given the robust Indo-U.S. ties developed over the last two decades, which both nations have pledged to deepen despite occasional friction. The BJP claims Gandhi’s Congress party is leveraging reports by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) to target Modi, particularly over allegations of the Adani Group’s close ties to the government. The group’s chairman, Gautam Adani, and others were recently indicted in the U.S. for a $265 million bribery scheme—charges Adani has denied.

3️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇺🇸 U.S. strikes Islamic State targets in Syria: The United States has conducted over 75 airstrikes targeting ISIL in Syria in the wake of the Assad regime's collapse. The strikes, confirmed by CENTCOM, aimed to prevent ISIL from exploiting the power vacuum, focusing on leaders, operatives, and infrastructure. CENTCOM Commander General Michael Erik Kurilla emphasized that the U.S. would not allow ISIL to regroup, warning against any partnerships with the group. The operation, involving aircraft such as the B-52 Stratofortress and F-15 Eagle, reportedly caused no civilian casualties. Damage assessments are ongoing.

4️⃣ 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso’s Junta appoints new prime minister: Burkina Faso’s junta leader, Captain Ibrahim Traoré, has appointed Rimtalba Jean Emmanuel Ouédraogo as the new prime minister, according to a decree issued Saturday. A close ally of Traoré, Ouédraogo has served as Minister of Communications and government spokesperson in successive reshuffles since the September 2022 coup. Burkina Faso, along with Mali and Niger, has distanced itself from France, aligning with Russia as the Sahel Alliance amid a worsening jihadi insurgency that has displaced 2 million people and claimed 26,000 lives.

5️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 UNSC convenes for DR Congo stability talks: The UN Security Council is set to hold an open briefing and closed consultations on the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), focusing on the work of MONUSCO and regional security developments. Special Representative Bintou Keita will present the Secretary-General's latest report, which highlights recent progress and challenges. The briefing may cover ongoing ceasefire efforts between the DRC and Rwanda, facilitated by Angola, and the contentious issue of neutralising armed groups like the FDLR and M23. Keita is also expected to address MONUSCO’s disengagement process and its coordination with the SADC Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC). Meanwhile, escalating clashes in North Kivu and continued civilian casualties underscore the fragile security environment. MONUSCO’s mandate expires on December 20.

Major Story

🇺🇦 🇷🇺 THE UKRAINE WAR: POSSIBILITIES FOR RESOLUTION?

The war in Ukraine shows no signs of abating, with both sides entrenched in an attritional conflict. Russia's strategy focuses on military escalation, aiming for territorial gains, while Ukraine, supported by the West, maintains fierce resistance. However, Western fatigue is palpable, and the U.S. under Donald Trump has signaled reduced support, raising questions about the war’s trajectory, writes Toda Peace Institute’s Herbert Wulf.

Negotiation Ripeness and Frozen Conflict

Political scientist William Zartman’s theory of “ripeness” suggests negotiations succeed when adversaries recognize a stalemate. Neither Russia nor Ukraine currently perceives this, though logistical strains and irreplaceable losses may eventually push both toward talks. Wulf surmises that a possible outcome could mirror Korea’s armistice of 1953: a ceasefire that freezes the conflict but leaves territorial disputes unresolved. This “Korean solution” would halt immediate destruction while allowing Ukraine to pursue democratic and economic growth, albeit under continuous threat.

Challenges to Lasting Peace

Critics of a frozen conflict cite risks of future hostilities and entrenched militarization, as seen on the Korean Peninsula. A binding peace deal, ensuring mutual security and territorial agreements, remains improbable given the intractable positions of both Russia and Ukraine. Neutral states like India or Switzerland might mediate, but any imposed compromise risks fueling partisan resistance within Ukraine.

Path Forward

While a complete military victory or a fair peace remains unlikely, a frozen conflict offers a pragmatic, if imperfect, respite. Ending active warfare, even temporarily, could prevent further devastation and create space for eventual resolution.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇬🇭 Ruling party concedes defeat in Ghana presidential elections: Former Ghanaian president John Dramani Mahama has secured a historic comeback victory, ousting the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) amidst widespread frustration over economic mismanagement. NPP candidate and Vice-President Mahamudu Bawumia conceded defeat in Sunday’s presidential election, acknowledging voter dissatisfaction with soaring inflation, debt default, and the high cost of living during President Nana Akufo-Addo's eight-year tenure. For Mahama, who served as president from 2012 to 2017, this victory marks a successful third bid to reclaim leadership after losses in 2016 and 2020. Economic instability, culminating in a $3 billion IMF bailout, was the dominant theme of the election.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇫🇷 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Trump calls for immediate Ukraine-Russia ceasefire: U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has called for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine following a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Paris. Trump, writing on his Truth Social platform, expressed his belief that Kyiv is open to negotiations, claiming he could end the conflict within 24 hours if re-elected. He criticised the war’s toll on lives and families, urging immediate talks. Trump’s meeting with Zelenskyy was reportedly facilitated by French President Emmanuel Macron, who convinced the initially hesitant Trump to join him in discussions with the Ukrainian leader. Trump has appointed retired General Keith Kellogg as his envoy for Russia and Ukraine, tasked with pursuing a resolution to the war.