Hello and welcome back to the 2nd issue of Geopolitics Daily!

The last 24 hours have seen the election of Mexico’s first female President Claudia Sheinbaum, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP alliance pull ahead in polling for the country’s 2024 elections.

More below ⬇️ 

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣🇲🇽 Mexico: Claudia Sheinbaum is set to become Mexico's first female president, securing 58.3%-60.7% of the vote. The 61-year-old climate scientist and former Mexico City mayor aims to continue the policies of her mentor, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. She has pledged to enhance social programs and maintain a friendly relationship with the US while addressing Mexico's security challenges. 

2️⃣🇦🇺 Australia: The Australian Defence Force (ADF) will open recruitment to foreign nationals with permanent residency to address a 4,400 personnel shortage. Starting in July, New Zealanders meeting specific criteria can join, with others eligible from January 2025. Defence Minister Richard Marles emphasized this expansion as crucial for Australia's security, targeting individuals already committed to Australia.

3️⃣🇮🇳 India: Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP-led alliance is leading in the vote count for the 2024 elections, aiming for a third consecutive term. The alliance needs 272 seats for a majority in the 543-member Lok Sabha. Despite a record-breaking 642 million voters participating, the turnout was slightly lower than in 2019 at 66.3%.

4️⃣🇮🇱 Israel: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition is embroiled in infighting over a US-backed ceasefire plan with Hamas. Far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich and national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir have threatened to oust Netanyahu if he agrees to the deal, which they deem "dangerous." Meanwhile, Netanyahu insists on defeating Hamas and releasing hostages before any ceasefire, reflecting the ongoing struggle within his government.

5️⃣🇬🇪 Georgia: The "foreign agents" bill, signed into law by Parliament Speaker Shalva Papuashvili, has sparked significant protests and a presidential veto due to concerns over media freedom and EU membership aspirations. The law requires media outlets and NGOs receiving over 20% foreign funding to register as foreign agents, a move critics argue stifles dissent and aligns with Russian suppression tactics. Despite government claims of curbing harmful foreign influence, opposition from EU and US officials highlights fears of undermining Georgia's democratic progress and EU integration.

Major Story

Gazprom and China's Gas Deal: Talks Hit a Snag

Russia’s state-controlled gas giant Gazprom has paused negotiations with China to secure a binding commitment for gas purchases through the planned Sila Sibiri 2 pipeline. The discussions with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) have hit a stumbling block, with CNPC demanding future gas supplies at prices close to Gazprom’s domestic rates, which range from $100 to $150 per thousand cubic meters and are significantly lower than international prices.

Additionally, CNPC is pushing for a lower minimum purchase threshold than what Gazprom is proposing. This take-or-pay clause is crucial for Gazprom, as it seeks to secure long-term investment returns on the costly Sila Sibiri 2 project, expected to span approximately 2,600 kilometers from West Siberia to the Mongolian border, and an additional 950 kilometers through Mongolia to China. The project is estimated to cost over $10 billion and become operational around 2030.

The pause in negotiations became apparent in May when Gazprom’s executive chairman, Alexei Miller, did not accompany Russian President Vladimir Putin on his official visit to Beijing. Instead, Miller was seen in Tehran, meeting with Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber and Oil Minister Javad Owji, highlighting a potential shift in focus for Gazprom amid stalled talks with China.

Gazprom’s gas production fell to a historic low of 355 billion cubic meters last year, largely due to international sanctions impacting its exports to Europe. This context adds pressure on Gazprom to secure the deal with China to ensure long-term performance on its existing pipeline commitments, including the Sila Sibiri 1 and the under-construction Sila Sibiri 3.

The outcome of these negotiations is critical for both Gazprom and China, influencing their energy strategies and bilateral economic relations for years to come. As talks continue, the resolution will determine the future trajectory of Russia’s energy exports and China’s energy security.

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Other News

1️⃣🇺🇸 USA: President Joe Biden is set to announce a new executive order to curb illegal migrant arrivals at the US-Mexico border. The order will enable swift deportation of migrants who enter illegally once a daily limit is reached, bypassing asylum processing. With over 6.4 million illegal crossings during Biden's administration, the move aims to address immigration concerns ahead of the 2024 election but is expected to face legal challenges and political criticism. 

2️⃣🇮🇱 Israel: The Israeli military has confirmed the deaths of four hostages, including British-Israeli Nadav Popplewell, Chaim Peri, Yoram Metzger, and Amiram Cooper, who were abducted by Hamas on October 7. The men were killed during an Israeli operation in Khan Younis, Gaza, and their bodies are still held by militants. This revelation comes as Israeli authorities continue efforts to account for all hostages taken during the conflict. 

3️⃣🇵🇰 Pakistan: An Islamabad court annulled former Prime Minister Imran Khan's 10-year sentence in a state secrets leak case. However, Khan remains imprisoned due to another conviction related to an unlawful marriage in 2018. Despite legal challenges and ongoing trials, Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party remains influential, winning 93 seats in the recent elections.

4️⃣🇫🇷 France: French intelligence suspects Russian involvement in a stunt where five coffins labeled “French soldiers of Ukraine” were placed near the Eiffel Tower. Three men—Bulgarian, Ukrainian, and German nationals—were arrested, allegedly paid to transport and deposit the coffins. This incident follows previous manipulative actions in Paris believed to involve Russian agents, aiming to sway public opinion on France's support for Ukraine.

5️⃣🇵🇦 Panama: In a significant shift, 300 Guna families from Gardi Sugdub island are preparing to relocate to the mainland due to rising sea levels. This move marks the beginning of Panama's efforts to address climate change impacts on its coastal communities, with 63 more communities expected to follow. Despite the emotional toll of leaving their ancestral homes, residents, like teacher Evelio López, are hopeful as they transition to new government-built homes, reflecting a broader global challenge that also resonates with ongoing geopolitical shifts.

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