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📰 Musk's German intervention

📰 Musk's German intervention

and Kurdish fears of invasion

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
December 21, 2024

Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

The United States dominates today’s headlines, as Fiji’s defence minister underscores the need for Pacific stability.

Meanwhile, South Korea’s impeached president fails to appear before the nation’s corruption watchdog, and Thailand hosts regional talks aimed at fostering a peace settlement in Myanmar.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇺🇸 🇹🇷 Kurdish officials urge Trump to prevent Turkish invasion: Senior U.S. officials warn of a significant Turkish military buildup along the Syrian border, sparking concerns of an imminent incursion into territory controlled by U.S.-backed Syrian Kurds. The forces, comprising Turkish commandos, militia fighters, and heavy artillery, are concentrated near Kobani, a Kurdish-majority city. Kurdish leader Ilham Ahmed urged President-elect Trump to pressure Turkish President Erdogan against military action, warning of catastrophic consequences if Türkiye seizes de facto control of Kurdish territories before Trump's inauguration. Türkiye aims to undermine Kurdish autonomy in Syria to curb separatist ambitions among its own Kurdish population.

2️⃣ 🇹🇭 🇲🇲 Thailand hosts regional talks for Myanmar peace settlement: Thailand hosted high-level talks aiming to resolve Myanmar's ongoing crisis, bringing together foreign ministers and representatives from Myanmar’s junta and its five neighbouring states—Laos, China, India, Bangladesh, and Thailand. While the junta outlined its controversial election roadmap, including a proposed census and registration of political parties, participants expressed cautious optimism but acknowledged the hurdles posed by Myanmar’s deteriorating control over its borders and resistance-held areas. Observers note that Thailand’s efforts diverge from ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus, reflecting a pragmatic shift toward stabilisation through limited engagement with the junta rather than supporting broader revolutionary change.

3️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇮🇱 Israel strikes Yemen’s Salif port, Hodeidah, Sana’a: The Israeli Air Force launched strikes in Yemen, reportedly killing nine people, following an Ansarallah coalition—or Houthi—missile attack on Israel. According to Al Masirah TV, seven people died in a strike on Salif port, with two more killed in attacks on the nearby Ras Issa oil facility. Additional strikes targeted Hodeidah’s port and power stations near Sana’a, leaving several injured. While the strikes occurred shortly after the missile attack, an Israeli military official told the Associated Press they were part of a ‘pre-planned response to ongoing Houthi aggression’ rather than a direct reaction to the attempted strike.

4️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇺🇸 U.S. announce sanctions regime on Pakistan’s ballistic missile development programme: A senior White House official warned Thursday that Pakistan is advancing its long-range ballistic missile capabilities, posing a potential "emerging threat" to the United States. Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer highlighted this development as a sign of the strained relations between Washington and Islamabad since the U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. Addressing the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Finer noted Pakistan’s shift towards increasingly advanced missile technology, including systems capable of testing larger rocket motors. His remarks coincided with new U.S. sanctions targeting Pakistan’s missile programme, marking the first inclusion of its state-run defence agency.

5️⃣ 🇫🇯 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Fiji’s defence minister stresses need for Pacific stability, pursues U.S. security pact: Fiji’s defence minister, Pio Tikoduadua, has emphasised the importance of Pacific stability, welcoming closer security ties with the United States while criticising China’s recent missile test as a threat to regional peace. The US pledged $4.9 million during a historic visit by Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin in November, aimed at modernising Fiji’s military and negotiating a status of forces agreement to facilitate US military operations in Fiji. Tikoduadua highlighted the funding’s role in upgrading small arms used by Fijian peacekeepers deployed in missions across Iraq, the Golan Heights, and South Sudan. While Fiji maintains ties with both Washington and Beijing, China’s missile test and its expanding regional influence through aid and policing agreements have raised concerns among Pacific nations.

Major Story

🇩🇪🇺🇸 Elon Musk’s German Endorsement Stirs Controversy

Billionaire Elon Musk has once again grabbed headlines, this time diving into Germany’s election landscape with a vocal endorsement of the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD). Musk’s proclamation, “Only the AfD can save Germany,” posted on his platform X, comes just as the nation heads into snap elections following a government collapse. The AfD, known for its anti-immigration stance and controversial rhetoric, is polling second nationwide but remains shunned by mainstream parties.

The endorsement sparked backlash from Berlin to Brussels. Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed Musk’s remarks as “uninformed and unhelpful,” while other German leaders highlighted the AfD’s extremist leanings. Despite criticism, AfD leaders welcomed the support, with party figurehead Alice Weidel echoing Musk’s critique of Germany’s political establishment. Musk’s comments also add to his pattern of supporting right-wing populists in Europe, including endorsements of leaders in Italy and the UK.

Musk’s Tesla operations in Germany also add a layer of complexity. While his Gigafactory Brandenburg spurred economic growth, it also stirred local opposition, ironically boosting the AfD in regional polls. Musk’s endorsement injects fresh energy into a divisive election, but whether it sways voters remains to be seen.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇰🇷 Impeached president fails to appear before South Korea’s corruption watchdog: Parliament removed Yoon from office over the weekend following his brief 3 December martial law declaration, which triggered the country’s worst political crisis in decades. The Corruption Investigation Office (CIO) summoned him for questioning at its Seoul facility on charges of insurrection and abuse of power, but he failed to appear, an official confirmed. Yoon’s legal team denies the insurrection charges, vowing to challenge them in court while cooperating with the investigation, according to Yonhap news agency. “We do not believe the charges are legally valid, but we will comply,” stated Seok Dong-hyeon, a member of Yoon’s legal team.

2️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇮🇱 IDF destroy 80% of Syria’s arsenal, says the Times of israel: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that its destructive 48-hour bombing campaign in Syria had neutralised the majority of the former Assad regime's strategic military assets. Over 350 strikes were carried out by the Air Force and Navy, targeting “strategic sites” to prevent advanced weaponry from reaching “hostile groups”. The IDF estimates that 70-80% of Syria's former strategic military capabilities have been eliminated since the Assad regime's collapse over the weekend.