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📰 Myanmar conflict intensifies

📰 Myanmar conflict intensifies

and Syria's collapse reshapes region

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
December 13, 2024

Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

Today's headlines feature Biden's decision to raise tariffs on Chinese solar equipment, ongoing clashes between Somalia's federal government and Jubaland rebels, and the increasing significance of the 'Middle Corridor' trade route linking China to Europe through Kazakhstan.

Iran dominates headlines as they seek to mend ties with Pakistan, while the main story today is an in-depth strategic analysis of Iran, the Axis of Resistance, and Syria.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇲🇲 Myanmar regime change elusive as conflict escalates: Myanmar’s ongoing conflict, sparked by the military coup in 2021, has intensified over the past year. Since October 2023, the Brotherhood Alliance—comprising the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and Arakan Army—has made significant territorial gains in Shan State. At the same time, People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) linked to the exiled National Unity Government have ramped up resistance nationwide. The Tatmadaw—Myanmar’s military—is increasingly strained, battling on multiple fronts, including anti-coup offensives in central Anyar near Mandalay and Naypyidaw. However, claims of its imminent collapse are likely exaggerated. While ethnic groups loosely collaborate with the PDFs against the junta, their focus on autonomy rather than national democracy suggests the conflict may grind into a prolonged stalemate.

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇰🇿 🇪🇺 The growing importance of the ‘Middle Corridor’ trade route: Global logistics face increasing disruptions, prompting a need for alternative, resilient trade pathways. The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), or Middle Corridor, connects China and Europe through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, and the South Caucasus, offering a stable option with reduced geopolitical risk. In 2023, cargo transport surged 68%, with container shipping reaching 20,000 TEUs, a twentyfold increase. Strategic investments, including a Baku cargo terminal and upgrades to Kazakhstan’s railways and ports, aim to enhance capacity, cut transit times, and lower emissions. Despite challenges like bottlenecks, the Middle Corridor's development positions it as a sustainable, efficient alternative, reducing delivery times to 10-15 days and reshaping global supply chains for modern demands.

3️⃣ 🇹🇼 🇨🇳 Taiwan establishes ‘Whole-of-Society Defence Resilience Committee’: Lai has emphasized that societal resilience must match physical preparedness to counter challenges like blockades, missile strikes, and potential invasions from Beijing. The WOSR initiative aims to empower citizens by fostering cooperation with the military and government, strengthening their resolve to resist coercion. This effort not only bolsters Taiwan’s defence strategy but also opens avenues for deeper U.S.-Taiwan collaboration to enhance deterrence and promote stability across the Taiwan Strait.

4️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇵🇰 Tehran and Islamabad seek to mend ties: Iran and Pakistan have a history of cooperation and tension, recently strained by accusations of supporting Baloch separatist groups across their porous 560-mile border. In early 2024, Iran accused Pakistan of sheltering the Sunni Baloch militant group Jaish al-Adl, while Pakistan alleged Iranian backing of separatists within its borders. The dispute escalated into military exchanges starting January 17, when Iran’s Revolutionary Guard launched missile strikes into Pakistan near Saravan, prompting retaliatory strikes the following day. Although both nations seek to normalize ties for geopolitical and economic reasons, persistent Baloch autonomy movements and poverty in the border region continue to undermine prospects for long-term stability.

5️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 🇬🇪 🇲🇩 🇹🇷 Geopolitical challenges stifle the EU’s enlargement roadmap: Since Croatia’s accession to the European Union in 2013, further enlargement has stalled due to crises such as migration, Brexit, and the COVID-19 pandemic. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has revived the push for expansion, with EU leaders seeking to transform the "gray zone" between the EU and Russia into a buffer against Russian aggression. Enlargement has been central to the EU’s mission since its founding as the European Economic Community in 1957, with the bloc expanding across multiple regions over decades. Today, 10 nations—including six Western Balkan countries, Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and Turkey—are pursuing membership. While most have achieved candidate status, Kosovo remains excluded, highlighting the ongoing challenges of regional integration.

Major Story

🇮🇷 🇸🇾 🇱🇧 IRAN, THE AXIS OF RESISTANCE, AND SYRIA: A STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

Since its 1979 revolution, Iran has relied on Syria as a key regional ally, initially under Hafez al-Assad and later under his son Bashar al-Assad. Iran’s support, including military assistance and an estimated $30bn during the Syrian Civil War, was critical in maintaining the Assad regime’s survival against both rebel and Islamic State forces. Syria’s strategic value for Iran also extended to serving as a supply conduit for Hizbollah in Lebanon. However, the collapse of the Assad regime signals a significant shift in the regional balance, weakening Iran’s influence.

Loss of Strategic Corridors

Syria has long provided a vital corridor for Iran to send weapons and support to Hizbollah. However, Syrian opposition groups—particularly Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—this route is no longer secure. HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Julani recently emphasised that a post-Assad Syria would no longer be under Iran’s influence, jeopardising Iran’s logistical support to the Lebanese Hizbollah. As a result, Hizbollah faces major challenges in resupplying its forces, impacting its capacity to engage with Israel and weakening its regional presence.

Expanding Israeli Influence

Iran’s position is further constrained by Israel’s territorial gains. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have established a "closed military zone" in southern Lebanon and expanded their control in the Golan Heights and Mount Hermon. With Israel consolidating its territorial advantages, Iran’s ability to threaten Israel from Syria or Lebanon diminishes. This expansion, combined with Syria’s weakening, further limits Iran’s strategic options in the region.

Iran’s Diminishing Regional Role

With the Assad regime’s collapse, Iran’s military and political support has been stretched thin. Although Iran committed to supporting Assad with weapons and advisors, its decisive backing was limited, with Tehran's military advisors displaying signs of hesitation. With Syria’s future uncertain and Hizbollah’s attack capabilities degraded, Iran faces a significant reduction in its regional influence, as Israel continues its unabated onslaught in the Middle East.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Biden hikes tariffs on Chinese solar equipment: The Biden administration plans to increase tariffs on Chinese-made solar wafers, polysilicon, and select tungsten products to bolster U.S. clean energy industries. Starting January 1, tariffs on solar wafers and polysilicon will double to 50%, while certain tungsten imports will face a new 25% duty. U.S. Trade Representative Katharine Tai stated these measures aim to counter harmful Chinese trade practices and strengthen domestic clean energy investments and critical supply chain resilience. Meanwhile, U.S.-China tensions persist, with trade talks underway and both nations imposing new restrictions, including U.S. semiconductor technology bans and China limiting exports of essential minerals like gallium and graphite.

2️⃣ 🇸🇴 Somalia federal government fights with Jubaland rebels: Clashes erupted in Somalia’s southern town of Raskamboni between federal forces and Jubaland troops on Wednesday, driven by disputes over a contested regional election. Fighting subsided by midday but highlighted a growing rift between the federal government and Jubaland’s administration, led by Ahmed Madobe, whose recent re-election has been contested. Both sides blamed each other for the violence, which occurred amid Somalia's transition from African Union peacekeepers to federal forces battling al-Shabab. Jubaland accused federal forces of targeting their positions, while the government alleged Jubaland’s cooperation with al-Shabab militants, intensifying tensions in the strategically vital region near Kenya’s border.