Geopolitics Daily
Posts
📰 National Rally HQ raided by French authorities

📰 National Rally HQ raided by French authorities

and Iran foreign minister urges diplomacy

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
July 10, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

In today’s developments, French authorities raid the National Rally’s headquarters over suspected campaign finance violations; Kenyan President Ruto orders police to shoot protesters in the legs as unrest escalates; and South Korea’s former president Yoon Suk Yeol is rearrested over martial law allegations.

Our lead story turns to Washington, where Trump’s Africa strategy opens doors and disrupts norms.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Iranian Foreign Minister urges Washington to choose diplomacy over war in Financial Times op-ed: In a Financial Times op-ed, Iran’s Foreign Minister recounts how recent direct talks with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff made more progress than years of negotiations under the Biden administration. The two sides explored mutual guarantees on uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, and a vast economic partnership. But just before a breakthrough sixth meeting, Israel launched a devastating strike on Iranian territory—targeting civilian and energy infrastructure—which Tehran sees as a deliberate sabotage of diplomacy. The minister criticises the U.S. for succumbing to Israeli pressure and warns that Iran’s patience should not be mistaken for weakness. While still open to negotiations, he questions Washington’s trustworthiness after repeated betrayals. Peace, he insists, depends on mutual respect—not coercion, not third-party interference. The U.S. now faces a critical choice: diplomatic resolution, or deeper entanglement in someone else’s war.

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇹🇼 China imposes export ban on companies tied to Taiwan’s military: China has imposed sanctions on eight Taiwanese entities, accusing them of supporting pro-independence efforts through military means, according to state media. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said the companies were aiding “separatist forces” and threatened national sovereignty amid Taiwan’s live-fire military drills. The sanctions include a ban on the export of dual-use items to the targeted firms, which Beijing says is necessary to preserve regional stability and territorial integrity under Chinese law. The companies affected are major defence and aerospace contractors, including Aerospace Industrial Development Corp, GEOSAT Aerospace & Technology, and the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science & Technology. The move follows Taiwan’s latest Han Kuang military exercise—the island’s largest and longest-running live-fire drill—featuring significant use of U.S.-supplied weaponry, further escalating tensions across the Taiwan Strait.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇧🇷 Trump imposes 50% tariff on Brazil over Bolsonaro trial and expands global trade penalties: President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports to the US, citing the “witch-hunt” trial against former President Jair Bolsonaro. Calling Bolsonaro a friend, Trump condemned Brazil’s judiciary and claimed the trial should “end immediately.” Bolsonaro faces allegations of conspiracy to stage a coup. The move was separate from broader tariffs announced this week, which target exports from seven other countries including the Philippines, Algeria, and Sri Lanka, effective 1 August. Trump also criticised Brazil’s censorship of social media firms, launching a Section 301 investigation into what he called unlawful restrictions. These escalating tariffs come amid growing concern over inflation, despite Trump’s claims of lowering costs. Oxford Economics estimated the new measures would raise the US import tariff rate to 20%. Trump exempted five African nations he hosted at the White House, suggesting a willingness to negotiate exemptions.

4️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 European Court finds Russia committed mass war crimes and systemic rights abuses in Ukraine: The European Court of Human Rights has ruled that Russia committed widespread war crimes and grave human rights violations in Ukraine between 2014 and 2022. In a unanimous decision, the court found Russia responsible for extrajudicial killings, torture, gender-based violence, forced labour, and the abduction of Ukrainian children. Violations included arbitrary detention, suppression of political freedoms, destruction of property, and attacks on journalists and minorities. The downing of flight MH17 with a Russian-supplied missile was also deemed a breach of the Convention. The judgment described Russia’s actions as a flagrant assault on international law and democratic values. Moscow refused to participate in the case and has said it will not comply with the ruling.

5️⃣.🇺🇸 🇵🇸 🇺🇳 White House sanctions UN Palestine rapporteur over Gaza genocide report: The United States imposed sanctions on UN Special Rapporteur for Palestine Francesca Albanese following her June report accusing over 60 firms—including Google, Amazon, and Microsoft—of profiting from what she called Israel’s “economy of genocide.” The report urged the ICC and national courts to prosecute executives and called for sanctions on complicit corporations. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the measures, accusing Albanese of launching “economic warfare” against the U.S. and Israel by urging international legal action. The sanctions freeze Albanese’s U.S.-based assets and could block financial transactions with EU-linked banks. Albanese, speaking to MEE, blames U.S. and European defence-linked corporations for profiting from the Gaza war. The move coincides with Israeli PM Netanyahu’s visit to Washington and follows growing calls from the US to remove Albanese from her UN post.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇬🇦 🇬🇼 🇱🇷 🇲🇷 🇸🇳 TRUMP’S AFRICA STRATEGY OPENS DOORS AND DISRUPTS NORMS

On 9 July, President Donald Trump hosted a White House lunch with the leaders of Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, and Senegal. Framed around “commercial opportunities,” the meeting signalled Trump’s intent to re-engage with Africa—on transactional terms. The focus: mineral supply chains and countering China’s economic foothold.

Trump’s shift away from aid-based diplomacy was laid out by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who now measures U.S. ambassadors by the number of commercial deals struck. This direct, deal-making approach suits some African leaders more than traditional US narratives of governance and human rights.

Guests, Optics, and the Politics of Invitation

While the guest list appears haphazard, some motives are clear. Liberia’s president was already visiting; Mauritania and Guinea-Bissau likely discussed migration and narcotics. Senegal and Gabon may have been rewarded for recent electoral transitions. The wildcard was Guinea-Bissau’s President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, whose contested rule continues despite delayed elections. His invitation, despite lacking U.S. diplomatic presence or trade ties, suggests tacit American support.

Tariffs, BRICS, and Shifting Alliances

Africa’s perception of Washington is also shaped by new tariffs. Lesotho, for instance, was hit with a 50% “Liberation Day” tariff despite minimal trade with the U.S.. South Africa received a 30% tariff notice and faces increased pressure due to its ICJ case on Gaza and BRICS membership. Pretoria is scrambling to appease Washington through mineral and gas concessions.

The Boulos Factor and What Lies Ahead

Trump’s Africa outreach has also been shaped by personal connections. Massad Boulos—now Senior Africa Advisor and Trump’s son-in-law’s father-in-law—has already brokered a controversial DRC–Rwanda deal and seeks to revive talks on Sudan.

While unpredictable, the Trump administration’s evolving Africa policy creates space for opportunistic engagement. A quarterly lunch series is planned, with a broader summit in September. Whether such initiatives endure or remain symbolic, African leaders may find windows of advantage—especially those who speak the language of deals.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇰🇪 🇺🇳 President Ruto orders police to shoot protesters in the legs amid nationwide unrest: Kenyan President William Ruto has ordered police to shoot protesters in the legs if they target businesses or security forces, marking a sharp escalation in rhetoric after 31 deaths in recent anti-government demonstrations. Speaking in Nairobi, Ruto called the protests “terrorism” and accused opponents of trying to unseat him through unconstitutional means. The unrest began last year over a controversial tax bill, but evolved into a broader youth-led movement against corruption, police brutality, and economic hardship, and resurfaced again this year. Despite the government's withdrawal of the finance bill and mass cabinet dismissals, public anger continues to grow amid police killings and alleged abductions. The UN and UNICEF condemned the use of deadly force, including the killing of a 12-year-old girl. Opposition leaders have urged a boycott of regime-linked businesses, vowing to oust Ruto via elections in 2027.

2️⃣ 🇰🇷 South Korea’s ex-president Yoon Suk Yeol rearrested: South Korea’s ousted president Yoon Suk Yeol has been detained for a second time, following a court ruling that he may tamper with evidence. The Seoul Central District Court held a seven-hour hearing before approving a warrant requested by special counsel Cho Eun-suk on five major charges. These include Yoon’s attempt to bypass Cabinet protocol to push through a false martial law decree on December 3, directing officials to lie about his intentions, obstructing his own arrest, and ordering the deletion of military call records. Yoon, who denied all allegations during a 20-minute final statement, was transferred to the Seoul Detention Center. He was previously arrested in January while in office but released in March. The Constitutional Court officially removed him from office in April amid growing outrage over the failed coup attempt.

3️⃣ 🇫🇷 French authorities raid National Rally headquarters: French financial police raided the National Rally’s headquarters on Wednesday as part of a sweeping probe into alleged illegal campaign financing between 2020 and 2024. Investigators are examining possible money laundering and forgery linked to the party’s 2022 presidential and legislative campaigns and the 2024 European elections. Party leader Jordan Bardella confirmed the raid involved 20 armed officers and claimed it was politically motivated, calling it an attack on democracy. Authorities seized emails, documents, and financial records. The inquiry follows concerns over €4.47 million Bardella reportedly borrowed from 225 individuals for his European campaign—loans that may violate rules if given regularly. The raid comes amid a separate EU-level investigation into misused funds by the Identity and Democracy group, and as Marine Le Pen appeals a five-year political ban for misappropriating EU funds.