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📰 NATO rejects Trump

📰 NATO rejects Trump

and Japan backs Indonesia

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
January 14, 2025

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In Africa, Mozambique’s opposition leader returns from self–imposed exile amid nationwide protests, the U.S. imposes sanctions on RSF leader Hemedti, and diplomatic relations between Somalia and Ethiopia signal thawing tensions in the Horn of Africa.

In Asia, Japan and Indonesia strengthen defence and economic partnerships, while our main story delves into China's expanding influence in Latin America.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇧🇪 NATO opposes Trump’s recommended spending threshold: NATO is unlikely to adopt Donald Trump’s proposal for a significant 5% defense spending target but may agree to raise its current 2% goal. Trump, in his comments last week, reiterated his push for higher NATO defense budgets, emphasizing that allies not meeting the target would not be guaranteed U.S. protection. While officials acknowledge the need for increased defense spending, the 5% target is seen as politically and economically unfeasible. A more likely agreement during NATO's June summit in The Hague is a target around 3% of GDP, which many members would still find challenging, especially given that several nations, including Italy, currently fall short of the 2% goal.

2️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇨🇾 🇬🇷 Turkey lobbies for division of Cyprus: Turkey has reiterated its support for a two-state solution in Cyprus, with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan arguing that pursuing alternative solutions to the island's decades-long division would be futile. His comments follow discussions with Ersin Tatar, leader of the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which Turkey recognizes. Cyprus has been divided since 1974, following a Turkish invasion triggered by a Greek-backed coup. While Turkey advocates for a two-state arrangement, Greek Cypriots oppose it, viewing it as a step toward permanent division and an enduring Turkish military presence. The United Nations and the European Union continue to support a federated solution, and a meeting in Switzerland is planned for March to explore potential pathways forward.

3️⃣ 🇸🇴 🇪🇹 Somalia, Ethiopia restore diplomatic ties: Somalia and Ethiopia have agreed to resume full diplomatic relations, more than a year after Somalia severed ties due to Ethiopia's controversial agreement with breakaway region Somaliland. The announcement followed a surprise visit by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to Addis Ababa. Both nations committed to restoring diplomatic representation in their capitals to strengthen bilateral ties. This development marks a positive shift after the 2023 memorandum between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which had caused tensions over territorial issues and a potential Ethiopian naval base on the Gulf of Aden. Despite past disagreements, the two countries are now seeking to enhance cooperation, especially in the fight against al-Shabaab.

4️⃣ 🇯🇵 🇮🇩 Japan, Indonesia further defence, economic cooperation: During his visit to Jakarta on Saturday, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Indonesian officials agreed to strengthen economic and defense cooperation, amidst growing concerns over China's regional assertiveness and Donald Trump's incoming presidency. Ishiba, who had recently met with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, expressed a desire to engage with Trump soon after his inauguration, emphasizing the importance of diplomatic ties between Japan, the U.S., and Southeast Asia. Japan seeks to position itself as a reliable partner for the region, highlighting its commitment to a rules-based international order, contrasting with China's more aggressive stance. Ishiba and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto also signed an agreement for a Japanese loan to fund infrastructure projects, including a new port, and pledged support for Indonesia's self-sufficiency and defense initiatives.

5️⃣ 🇹🇩 Chad’s ruling party wins controversial parliamentary elections: Chad’s ruling Patriotic Salvation Movement (PSM) secured the majority of seats in the country’s first parliamentary election in over a decade, provisional results show. The PSM won 124 out of 188 seats, with a voter turnout of 51.5%. The election, which also included regional and municipal contests, marked the final stage of Chad's transition to democracy after Mahamat Idriss Deby assumed power in 2021 following the death of his father, President Idriss Deby Itno. While more than 10 opposition parties, including the Transformers party, boycotted the vote, the results were seen as a consolidation of President Deby's political power amid security challenges and a break in ties with France.

Major Story

🇨🇳 🇨🇺 🇻🇪 🇵🇪 CHINA’S GROWING INFLUENCE IN LATIN AMERICA: ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS

China's economic presence in Latin America has expanded dramatically since the early 2000s, with the country becoming South America's largest trading partner. Key industries such as energy, infrastructure, and space are major targets for Chinese investment, particularly through state-owned enterprises. As part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China recently opened a significant megaport in Peru, underscoring its increasing geopolitical presence.

However, China’s rising influence has raised concerns in the United States and its allies, particularly regarding Beijing’s geopolitical objectives. The U.S. fears China’s involvement could further isolate Taiwan and support authoritarian regimes in Venezuela and Cuba. Additionally, there are concerns over Chinese investments creating debt traps, potentially leaving Latin American countries vulnerable to Beijing’s economic leverage.

In response, the U.S. has taken steps to counter China’s growing sway in the region. Under the Biden administration, efforts to strengthen U.S.-Latin American relations through initiatives like Build Back Better World (B3W) aim to offer an alternative to China’s BRI. However, critics argue that U.S. efforts lack the scale and focus necessary to compete with China's rapidly expanding influence.

China’s growing ties to Latin America span multiple sectors, from trade and infrastructure to military cooperation. Its deepening relationships with countries like Venezuela and Cuba reflect its broader strategy of cultivating support for its global agenda, including its stance on Taiwan. As Latin America becomes a strategic battleground for U.S.-China rivalry, the region’s future geopolitical alignment remains uncertain.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇲🇿 Mozambique’s opposition leader returns to country amid protests: Mozambique’s leading opposition figure, Venancio Mondlane, returned from self-imposed exile, reiterating his rejection of the disputed election results from last year. As he arrived at Maputo’s Mavalane International Airport, security forces clashed with his supporters, firing tear gas into the crowd. Mondlane, who had left the country in October amid allegations of election fraud, vowed to continue his fight for political change. He also condemned the violent crackdown by security forces during the protests that followed the ruling Frelimo party's controversial victory, which resulted in over 100 deaths, with some estimates exceeding 200.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇸🇩 U.S. imposes sanctions on RSF’s Hemedti: The United States announced on Tuesday that members of Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allied militias have committed genocide, imposing sanctions on the group’s leader, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. The conflict, which has killed tens of thousands and displaced millions, has been marked by ethnically driven violence, mass looting, and widespread abuses, including killings and sexual violence. The sanctions undermine the RSF’s efforts to improve its image and assert legitimacy, including its claims of supporting a civilian government, as it continues to vie for greater territorial control. Rejecting the measures, an RSF spokesperson compared them to past U.S. actions, stating, “America once wrongly punished Nelson Mandela, and today it rewards those who initiated the war by targeting General Dagalo, which is equally wrong.”