Geopolitics Daily
Posts
📰 Nawrocki wins Polish election

📰 Nawrocki wins Polish election

and UN extends South Sudan arms embargo

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
June 02, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily.

Today, China accuses the U.S. of ‘severely violating’ their trade truce, while in Africa’s Great Lakes region, DRC’s former president Kabila reemerges in rebel-held territory amid rising tensions.

Today’s lead story examines how widespread erosion of human rights is fueling global instability.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇱 🇪🇺 Nawrocki defeats Trzaskowski in tight Polish presidential runoff: Karol Nawrocki narrowly defeated Rafał Trzaskowski in Poland’s presidential runoff, winning 50.89 percent to 49.11 percent, according to official results. His victory, backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, deals a blow to Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition, which lacks the parliamentary supermajority needed to override presidential vetoes. Although largely ceremonial, the presidency can block or delay legislation, making Nawrocki a significant obstacle to Tusk’s reform agenda. Nawrocki has pledged to resist EU federalism, block LGBTQ+ rights expansion, and oppose Ukraine’s NATO bid. His win highlights Poland’s enduring political divide between liberal urban voters and conservative rural areas. Despite scandals during his campaign, Nawrocki’s appeal to traditionalist voters held firm. The result signals ongoing gridlock and a heightened standoff between Poland’s executive and legislative branches.

2️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇸🇸 UN extends South Sudan arms embargo: The UN Security Council narrowly voted to extend the arms embargo on South Sudan for another year, passing a U.S.-sponsored resolution with nine votes and six abstentions. The measure prolongs the embargo, travel bans, and asset freezes until 31 May 2026. Despite hopes for peace after South Sudan’s 2011 independence, tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice-President Riek Machar have escalated, reviving fears of renewed civil war. UN envoy Nicholas Haysom warned the situation mirrors the 2013 and 2016 conflicts that killed over 400,000 people. The U.S. argued the embargo is essential to prevent further violence, while Russia and South Sudan’s ambassador criticised the sanctions, claiming they obstruct peace efforts and economic growth. Presidential elections have been delayed until 2026 as political and ethnic divisions deepen.

3️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 🇹🇷 Ukraine launches drone barrage targeting Russia airfields ahead of Istanbul talks: Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) launched a drone attack on Sunday targeting four Russian airfields, damaging 41 strategic bombers, an SBU official told Politico. The operation, dubbed “Pavutyna” (Web), involved drones hidden in mobile housings that were remotely deployed. Russia’s Defense Ministry confirmed strikes on two airfields but claimed other attacks were repelled and reported no casualties. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv will proceed with ceasefire talks in Istanbul, led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, though Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry noted Russia has yet to provide an expected memorandum outlining its position. The strikes come as Russia continues missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, including a strike Sunday that killed 12 at a Ukrainian training ground. Ukrainian officials criticised Russia’s actions as undermining the negotiations.

4️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Dozens of Palestinians killed after Israeli troops fire at civilians at Rafah aid distribution site: More than 30 Palestinians were killed and over 170 wounded on Sunday after Israeli forces reportedly opened fire on civilians approaching an aid distribution site in Rafah, witnesses and medical officials said. The ‘Gaza Humanitarian Foundation’, backed by Israel, denied gunfire around its facility. The Red Cross confirmed receiving a mass influx of casualties, marking the deadliest single incident since its field hospital was established. Witnesses said Israeli soldiers fired as crowds surged before the official opening time. The GHF’s aid hubs have faced criticism for operating in Israeli military zones. Humanitarian agencies warn the system exacerbates Gaza’s food crisis, with half a million facing starvation.

5️⃣ 🇲🇦 🇬🇧 🇪🇭 UK backs Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara, signalling policy shift: The UK has endorsed Morocco’s 2007 autonomy proposal for Western Sahara, shifting from its earlier neutral stance. During a visit to Rabat, foreign secretary David Lammy described the plan as the “most credible, viable and pragmatic” framework for resolving the dispute. Britain’s position now mirrors that of the U.S., France, and Spain, which have also backed Morocco’s sovereignty claims. The Algerian-supported Polisario Front continues to seek full independence, and the UN maintains its call for a negotiated solution allowing self-determination. Talks have stalled since the collapse of the 1991 ceasefire.

Major Story

🇮🇱 🇭🇺 🇮🇳 EROSION OF HUMAN RIGHTS FUELS GLOBAL INSTABILITY

The first few months of 2025 have seen an alarming retreat from human rights protections, with consequences that extend beyond national borders. Drawing from Human Rights Watch’s April 2025 report, 100 Human Rights Harms in 100 Days, three key trends emerge: the dismantling of democratic institutions, rising discrimination against vulnerable groups, and the erosion of multilateral commitments. These developments directly undermine the UN’s 2024 Pact for the Future, which reaffirmed the central role of human rights in sustaining peace.

Democratic Institutions Under Siege

Across regions, governments are methodically weakening democratic oversight. In the United States, the dismantling of civil rights offices and curbs on agency oversight mirror broader global patterns seen in Hungary, Israel, and India. Leaders frame independent institutions as obstacles, then use legal reforms to entrench loyalists. This hollowing-out process threatens peaceful governance and contravenes commitments made under the Pact for the Future.

Targeting of Marginalised Communities, Collapse of Multilateralism

Vulnerable groups face increasing hostility. In India, the Citizenship Amendment Act and National Register of Citizens have intensified discrimination against Muslims. Similarly, the United States has seen sweeping restrictions on asylum and reproductive rights. Such policies dismantle the social contract and heighten risks of conflict by excluding entire communities from protection.

A growing number of governments are actively retreating from international norms. The U.S. withdrawal from key global frameworks, Hungary’s defiance of EU standards, and Israel’s rejection of the ICC signal a broader abandonment of multilateralism. Simultaneously, UN agencies face deep funding cuts, crippling efforts to respond to humanitarian crises and conflict prevention.

Security Risks and Strategic Imperatives

As rights protections erode, domestic instability grows. From Bangladesh to Myanmar, recent crises reveal that violations often precede violent conflict. Weak regional bodies and silenced civil societies further reduce early warning and mediation capacities. The shared international framework that once underpinned peace is fracturing.

Reversing this trajectory requires action: strengthening democratic institutions, protecting marginalised groups, recommitting to multilateral norms, bolstering civil society resilience, and creating independent accountability mechanisms. Without urgent intervention, the current regression risks leaving future generations vulnerable to deeper instability and repression.

Fact-based news without bias awaits. Make 1440 your choice today.

Overwhelmed by biased news? Cut through the clutter and get straight facts with your daily 1440 digest. From politics to sports, join millions who start their day informed.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 🇺🇳 DRC’s former president Kabila reemerges in rebel-held Congo as tensions rise: Former Congolese President Joseph Kabila appeared publicly for the first time in rebel-controlled eastern Congo on Thursday, meeting with religious leaders in Goma. Kabila, who has been in exile since 2023 and faces allegations of crimes against humanity for allegedly supporting insurgents, denies ties to the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels. His return comes amid accusations from Kinshasa that he and Rwandan President Paul Kagame are aligning against the government. Kabila’s meeting, aimed at promoting peace, was held privately, with no media access. His reappearance could complicate U.S.-brokered peace efforts and planned mineral investment deals. The UN and Western governments have accused Rwanda of supporting M23, charges Rwanda denies. Kabila’s aides said further consultations with political, military, and civil society leaders are scheduled, but his plans for staying in M23-controlled areas remain unclear.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 U.S. ‘severely violating’ trade truce, says China: China has accused the United States of “severely violating” their recent trade truce, pledging strong countermeasures to defend its interests. Beijing’s Ministry of Commerce said Washington had “seriously undermined” agreements reached in Geneva last month, where both countries agreed to reduce tariffs. China also cited violations of understandings from a January call between Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump. Tensions escalated after Trump accused China of breaching the deal, though specifics were unclear. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer later pointed to China’s failure to dismantle non-tariff barriers. Beijing cited U.S. restrictions on chip design software, warnings against Huawei products, and visa cancellations for Chinese students as breaches. Although top White House officials hinted Trump and Xi could soon hold talks, the dispute highlights the fragility of the current truce and casts doubt over prospects for a broader trade deal.

3️⃣ 🇧🇷 🇮🇱 Brazilian unions urge Lula to impose energy embargo on Israel: Two major oil workers' federations in Brazil have called on President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to impose an energy embargo on Israel over its military actions in Gaza. In a letter to Lula and senior ministers, the National Federation of Oil Workers and the Single Federation of Oil Workers pressed for immediate action, urging Brazil to align its policies with international legal obligations to prevent atrocities. The federations cited Brazil’s export of 2.7 million barrels of crude oil to Israel in 2024, stressing Brazil’s responsibility to avoid complicity in alleged war crimes. They also referenced similar moves, including Colombia’s coal export suspension and global #BlockTheBoat campaigns. Beyond halting oil exports, they advocated suspending projects with Israeli energy firms and backing UN sanctions.