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📰 Netanyahu fires Gallant

📰 Netanyahu fires Gallant

and Trump wins

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
November 07, 2024

Hello and welcome back,

With Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. election, the world watches to see if his administration will forge a new path or reinforce the status quo in pursuit of global peace and security.

Meanwhile, a U.S.–Saudi security agreement may proceed without Israel normalisation, North Korea has tested a volley of ballistic missiles east of the Korean peninsula, and Persian Gulf states find themselves in a precarious position amid rising Iran-Israel tensions.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election: Former President Donald Trump is projected to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, reclaiming the White House with key victories in states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In his victory speech in West Palm Beach, Trump expressed gratitude and called his campaign “the greatest political movement of all time.” Ukrainian officials showed mixed reactions, while leaders from Hungary, Italy, and France extended congratulations. The Republican Party regained control of the Senate, marking a historic comeback for Trump as the second president to serve non-consecutive terms.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 Netanyahu dismisses defence minister, Yoav Gallant: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has dismissed Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, who was regarded by Israel’s international allies as a moderate influence on the coalition's far-right factions. Netanyahu stated in a video announcement on Tuesday that "significant gaps" in handling the Gaza conflict had damaged trust between him and Gallant, making a change necessary. Protests erupted across Israel following the decision. Israel Katz, currently the foreign minister and a Likud party member, will step in as defence minister, with Gideon Saar, leader of the New Hope party, taking over as foreign minister. The White House expressed appreciation for Gallant as a “valuable partner” and pledged ongoing collaboration with Israel’s new defence minister. However, a senior U.S. official voiced concerns over Gallant’s dismissal, describing it as “surprising” and “worrisome,” particularly during heightened tensions and amid threats from Iran.

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇪🇺 China files complaint to World Trade Organisation over EU tariffs: China has filed a complaint with the WTO, asserting that the European Union’s recent anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs) are unjust. China’s WTO delegation expressed “strong opposition” to the tariffs, stating the complaint aims to safeguard its EV industry and encourage the global shift to greener technology. Last month, the EU imposed import duties of up to 35% on Chinese EVs, citing unfair price competition with EU-made vehicles. The duties are expected to last five years, unless an agreement is reached. The dispute highlights tensions over Chinese government subsidies and their impact on European markets. EU Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis defended the tariffs as “proportionate and targeted” measures intended to support fair competition and bolster the EU’s industrial sector.

4️⃣ 🇰🇬 Turkic states forum begins in Bishkek: The Council of Foreign Ministers of the Organization of Turkic States convened in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Jeenbek Kulubayev opened the session, highlighting this year’s focus on strengthening the Turkic world through economic integration, sustainable development, digital transformation, and security. Kulubayev noted the ministers aim to adopt a roadmap to advance a green economy and issue a final declaration for the summit. The meeting includes Türkiye’s Hakan Fidan, Azerbaijan’s Ceyhun Bayramov, Kazakhstan’s Murat Nurtleu, Uzbekistan’s Bakhtiyor Saidov, and Hungary's Peter Szijjarto, representing the nation’s observer status, along with the organisation’s Secretary General Kubanichbek Omuraliev.

5️⃣ 🇰🇵 🇰🇷 North Korea tests salvo of ballistic missiles east of Korean peninsula: North Korea launched a series of short-range ballistic missiles early Tuesday, according to South Korea's military. Last week, Pyongyang claimed it had successfully tested its most advanced solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), following accusations from U.S. and Ukrainian officials that North Korea had deployed soldiers to aid Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine—an allegation North Korea denies. Amid growing international pressure for withdrawal, South Korea warned that thousands of North Korean troops were reportedly stationed along front-line areas, including Russia’s Kursk region. Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff tracked the missiles, which flew about 248 miles into the waters east of the Korean peninsula, and shared real-time information with both Tokyo and Washington.

Major Story

🇦🇪 🇸🇦 🇶🇦 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 PERSIAN GULF STATES IN PRECARIOUS POSITION AMIDST IRAN-ISRAEL TENSIONS

Background

Iran’s imminent response to Israel’s airstrike on its military assets raises tensions across the Persian Gulf, leaving Gulf states in a delicate position between diplomatic autonomy and reliance on U.S. security. Tehran’s message has been clear: retaliation is forthcoming, potentially through Iraqi territory. The response signals a renewed attempt by both Iran and Israel to establish deterrence amid escalating regional hostilities.

Navigating Diplomatic and Military Alliances

Two polarised factions dominate the region: the U.S.-Israeli alliance and the Resistance Axis, with Persian Gulf states navigating a complex middle path to avoid direct involvement. Statements from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and individual states—such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE—condemned Israel’s attacks on Iran, underscoring regional sovereignty concerns and the need to de-escalate tensions. At the same time, these nations have restricted Israel’s access to airspace for potential strikes on Iranian targets, showcasing a commitment to regional stability.

Balancing U.S. Dependence with Regional Neutrality

Though Gulf states have formalised U.S. defence alliances, many are keen to avoid active roles in hostilities with Iran. Public condemnations contrast with cautious, private agreements aimed at limiting the U.S.’s offensive use of their territories. Meanwhile, these nations benefit from improved relations with Iran, seeing strategic value in diplomatic ties that could help shield them from the repercussions of broader Middle Eastern conflicts.

The Role of Public Sentiment and Long-Term Strategy

The Gulf states’ alignment remains strategically cautious as they weigh public sentiment against political and economic realities. While covertly cooperating with Israel, these states carefully manage public messaging to avoid backlash amid rising regional support for Palestinian causes. Their actions reflect a balancing act that prioritises security, economic partnerships, and autonomy, yet leaves the door open for closer alignment against Iran should tangible security guarantees from the U.S. materialise.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 Israel normalisation may not be part of U.S.–Saudi security arrangement: The United States and Saudi Arabia are reportedly negotiating a potential security pact that doesn’t hinge on broader normalisation with Israel, according to Axios, citing unnamed sources. Previously, Washington has encouraged Riyadh, a critical energy ally, to pursue diplomatic ties with Israel. Escalating violence in Gaza and Lebanon has reportedly complicated these efforts. The proposed deal falls short of a full defence treaty, but both Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the White House are aiming to finalise it before President Joe Biden’s term ends in January, Axios reported.

2️⃣ 🇦🇺 🇮🇳 🇨🇦 Australia weighs in on India-Canada diplomatic row: Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong confirmed on Tuesday that she discussed Canada’s allegations of India targeting Sikh activists in Canada with her Indian counterpart, S. Jaishankar, during their meeting at Parliament House in Canberra. Wong reiterated Australia’s commitment to ensuring safety and respect for the Sikh community, stating that “everyone has a right to safety in our multicultural democracy.” She added that Australia takes these allegations seriously and respects Canada’s judicial process, emphasising principles like the rule of law and national sovereignty. Jaishankar countered by accusing Canada of making unsubstantiated claims and permitting “extremist voices” space within its borders. He further criticised Canada for monitoring Indian diplomats, labelling it “unacceptable.” Australia, a close intelligence ally to Canada through the Five Eyes alliance, conveyed its stance to India as expected.