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📰 New EU tariff deadline

📰 New EU tariff deadline

and ASEAN summit concludes

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
May 26, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily.

In Europe, Spain’s foreign minister urges sanctions on Israel at a Madrid summit, Europe’s drug crisis intensifies as transnational trafficking and violence spread across the Atlantic, and Trump postpones a tariff hike on the EU. Meanwhile, Malaysia pushes for an expanded ceasefire in Myanmar at the ASEAN summit.

Today’s lead story examines prospects for a strategic reset in the EU’s Sahel engagement.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 🇺🇳 International aid organisations reject ties to Israel’s controversial food delivery plan: Leading aid organisations have distanced themselves from a Gaza food aid plan proposed by the newly established Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), following a leaked letter sent by GHF to Israel’s COGAT unit. The letter referenced GHF’s coordination with groups like Save the Children and Mercy Corps—claims now denied by those same NGOs. Several aid agencies confirmed attending an informational meeting but said they had made no agreements, nor endorsed GHF’s approach. Critics argue GHF is backtracking amid growing pressure and opposition from the UN and NGO community. Project Hope and Mercy Corps expressed concern over bypassing the UN-led aid mechanism, while Care International stressed that humanitarian assistance must remain impartial. GHF insists its role is limited to food aid and claims its advocacy secured Israel’s agreement to allow non-food items via the UN.

2️⃣ 🇲🇾 🇲🇲 Malaysia presses for expanded Myanmar truce as ASEAN struggles for unity: Malaysia has called for an urgent extension and broadening of the Myanmar ceasefire set to expire at the end of this month, warning that continued conflict is worsening regional instability. At an ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan urged Myanmar’s military and opposition forces to halt hostilities and open space for humanitarian aid and long-term recovery. Despite repeated ASEAN efforts, Myanmar’s junta has ignored the bloc’s 2021 peace plan and escalated air strikes—most recently killing 20 children in Sagaing. Malaysia, holding ASEAN’s chair, warned of worsening refugee flows and cross-border crime. While some anti-coup groups have paused attacks, sporadic violence continues across contested areas. Political dialogue remains unlikely amid deep mistrust, even as the junta pushes for elections by year’s end.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 AP investigation reveals widespread Israeli use of human shields in Gaza: An AP investigation has uncovered mounting evidence that Israeli forces are systematically using Palestinian civilians as human shields in Gaza, in violation of international law. Seven Palestinians and two Israeli soldiers told AP that troops routinely coerce civilians into entering buildings and tunnels to search for explosives or militants. This corroborates an Al Jazeera investigation from late 2024, that came to the same conclusion. Though Israel’s military claims such practices are banned and under investigation, it provided no details. Rights groups say the tactic, which was a customary Israeli military tactic until it was banned by Israel’s Supreme Court in 2005, remains prevalent. The military insists Hamas is to blame for civilian casualties, but the reports suggest a pattern of Israeli misconduct over the course of the 19-month war.

4️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇮🇩 China’s premier says Beijing and Jakarta will promote ‘True Multilateralism’: During his visit to Jakarta, Chinese Premier Li Qiang pledged closer cooperation with Indonesia to defend multilateralism and counter rising global protectionism. Meeting with President Prabowo Subianto, Li emphasised joint action in politics, trade, maritime security, AI, and energy, while warning that unilateralism threatens global stability. Both leaders committed to accelerating talks on South China Sea conduct and expanding bilateral investment. China, facing growing pressure from US tariffs, views ASEAN—its top trading partner—as vital in pushing back against Washington’s economic policies. At a business forum, Li assured Indonesian firms of China’s openness and urged stronger industrial integration. The visit signals Beijing’s push to anchor regional alliances as Southeast Asian states brace for looming US trade penalties.

5️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 Trump warns Putin of 'downfall' but criticises Zelenskyy amid deadly Ukraine escalation: President Trump has warned that Vladimir Putin risks Russia’s “downfall” if he attempts to conquer all of Ukraine, while also lashing out at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for his rhetoric. In a Truth Social post, Trump said Putin has “gone absolutely CRAZY” and is “needlessly killing a lot of people,” yet stopped short of announcing new sanctions, despite intensifying Russian airstrikes that killed at least 12 people over the weekend. Trump, who once claimed he could end the war in 24 hours, criticised Zelenskyy for “causing problems” with his statements. Kyiv, frustrated by Trump’s reluctance to increase pressure on Moscow, urged fresh sanctions after Russia’s largest aerial assault in three years.

Major Story

🇲🇱 🇧🇫 🇳🇪 🇪🇺 RESETTING THE EU’S STRATEGY IN THE TROUBLED SAHEL

Since a wave of coups swept through Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, military juntas have ruled under the guise of “sovereignist” revival, promising to restore order while deepening repression and militarising governance. With backing from Russia, they have sidelined civil society, dissolved political parties, and suspended democratic processes. Despite heavy investment in arms and drone warfare, jihadist violence is escalating, with attacks reaching urban centres and spilling into coastal states. European efforts to train and support local security forces have largely collapsed, and EU influence has sharply declined amid strained diplomacy and anti-Western rhetoric.

The EU’s Dilemma: Principles vs Pragmatism

The EU is grappling with how to engage a region where its normative agenda—democracy, human rights, and civilian protection—clashes with the realities of authoritarian rule and regional power competition. Amid shrinking diplomatic presence and cutbacks in development aid, internal divisions remain stark: while France, Denmark, and Sweden favour disengagement, others like Italy and Portugal see continued engagement as essential for migration control and regional stability. João Cravinho, the EU’s new special representative for the Sahel, is tasked with forging consensus and redefining the bloc’s role.

Toward a Smarter, Grounded Approach

To regain relevance, analysts argue that the EU must shift from top-down democracy promotion to a strategy that builds trust, acknowledges local grievances, and supports inclusive development. This includes tailoring engagement to the region’s sovereignist discourse, focusing less on countering Russia and more on delivering visible benefits to Sahelian populations. Reengagement should emphasise local governance, youth inclusion, and the protection of civic space. Militarily, the EU must advocate for restraint and recommit to its multidimensional approach—pairing security with governance reform and economic resilience.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇧🇪 🇳🇱 🇸🇪 Europe’s drug crisis deepens as multinational trade, violence spreads across the Atlantic: Cocaine trafficking into Europe is surging, fuelling a rise in violence, corruption, and criminal infiltration across major cities and ports. The fallout—long associated with Latin America—is now gripping EU states like Belgium, the Netherlands, and Sweden. Despite years of enforcement, drug routes have become more fragmented and resilient, connecting coca fields in Latin America to European streets via decentralised criminal networks, maritime smuggling, and complicit professionals. In response, the EU is ramping up legal and security cooperation with Latin American partners. But experts caution against emulating punitive U.S.-style crackdowns, which have worsened violence. Instead, they advocate for a focus on harm reduction, youth prevention, and targeted deterrence—approaches that address the root causes and could mitigate the drug trade’s most destabilising effects on both sides of the Atlantic.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 Trump delays EU tariff hike, but July deadline looms: President Donald Trump has postponed his proposed 50% tariffs on the European Union, granting an extension until July 9 following a phone call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Originally set to begin in June, the tariffs will rise from 10% to 20% if no agreement is reached by the new deadline. Trump said it was his "privilege" to offer the extension, while von der Leyen expressed optimism about swift negotiations. Despite the reprieve, tensions remain high. EU officials, including Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, have warned against threats and stressed the need for talks grounded in mutual respect. A high-stakes EU-U.S. meeting is now expected in early June.

3️⃣ 🇪🇸 🇪🇺 🇮🇱 Spain calls for sanctions on Israel at Madrid summit: At a high-level meeting of the Madrid Group, Spain urged international sanctions on Israel to halt its war in Gaza, as civilian deaths and starvation mount under a near-total aid blockade. Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares called the conflict a “humanitarian catastrophe” and warned the war had “no goal” beyond destruction. With just a fraction of needed aid reaching Gaza, EU nations—once firm allies of Israel—are only beginning to voice alarm. The summit, attended by 20 countries and global bodies, aimed to build momentum for a June UN conference on Palestinian statehood. Officials from Egypt, Germany, and the Palestinian Authority denounced Israel’s obstruction of humanitarian access and its disregard for diplomatic efforts. “We must consider sanctions,” Albares said, insisting on urgent international action to end the crisis.