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Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
September 14, 2024

Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

The United States dominates today’s headlines. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has suggested that the White House might soon lift restrictions on Ukraine using long-range Western weapons against key military targets in Russia, a move that has elicited a strong response from Putin. Meanwhile, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., Linda Thomas-Greenfield, has endorsed the proposal for two permanent African seats on the UN Security Council.

In Asia, Myanmar is in the spotlight after experiencing its deadliest year for journalists since the military coup, with three reporters killed just last month. Additionally, Pakistan asserts that it has met the preconditions for a $7 billion IMF loan.

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Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇺🇳 US endorses proposal for 2 permanent African seats on UN Security Council: The U.S. announced on Thursday its support for adding two permanent seats for African nations to the U.N. Security Council, along with the first-ever non-permanent seat for a small island developing state. U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., Linda Thomas-Greenfield, made the statement during a speech at the Council on Foreign Relations, building on President Biden's previous backing for expanding the 15-member council. Though Africa currently holds three non-permanent seats, Thomas-Greenfield emphasised that this doesn’t allow the continent to fully contribute its expertise. She stated, “In addition to non-permanent membership, the U.S. supports the creation of two permanent seats for Africa. This aligns with what our African partners want and what we consider fair.” However, she clarified that the U.S. does not support granting veto power to these new African seats, citing concerns that it could further hinder the Security Council's effectiveness.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 Putin warns that U.S. proposal to lift weapons restrictions on Ukraine would place NATO at war with Russia: Vladimir Putin has warned that allowing Kyiv to use longer-range weapons against targets inside Russia would mean NATO is "at war" with Moscow. His comments followed a statement by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who suggested that the White House might soon lift restrictions on Ukraine using long-range Western weapons against key military targets inside Russia. At present, US and UK officials are discussing easing restrictions on Ukraine firing Western weapons into Russian territory—a move Kyiv has been advocating for after more than two years of conflict. "This would significantly alter the nature of the conflict," Putin said on state television. "It would mean NATO countries—the US and European nations—are at war with Russia. If that happens, we will take appropriate actions based on the new threats we face."

3️⃣ 🇹🇳 🇪🇺 Leak exposes scale of Tunisian regime’s crackdown on opposition, jeopardising EU migration agreement: The EU is concerned about its credibility as it tries to balance growing alarm over the suppression of dissent in Tunisia while maintaining a contentious migration deal with the North African nation, according to a leaked document. An internal EU diplomatic report, viewed by the Guardian, highlights "a clear deterioration of the political climate and shrinking civic space" under Tunisian President Kais Saied, who has dissolved parliament and consolidated power since taking office in 2019. EU officials anticipate Saied will retain power after the presidential elections on October 6, which have been marred by the imprisonment of political opponents and the persecution of dissenters for allegedly spreading false information. The leaked document is likely to heighten concerns about the EU-Tunisia migration pact, signed in 2023, aimed at curbing migration to Europe, which has already faced criticism for propping up authoritarian regimes. The EU fears that without continued support, Tunisia may fall under the influence of “hostile third countries,” presumably referring to Russia, Iran, and China.

4️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israeli spy chief resigns over October 7 intelligence failure: The commander of Israel's intelligence and surveillance Unit 8200, Brigadier General Yossi Sariel, has resigned, accepting responsibility for the failure to prevent a Hamas raid on October 7 of last year. According to reports from Yedioth Ahronoth, Sariel informed Chief of Staff Herzl Halevi of his decision to step down, one of several high-level resignations following the raid. Sariel’s departure follows resignations from six other senior officials within the Israeli military and intelligence community, including commanders from the Gaza Division and Shin Bet’s Southern District. Many of these figures faced criticism for lapses leading to Hamas's incursions into Israeli military sites and settlements. Sariel, who had been in command of Unit 8200 since February 2021, joins other key figures like Major General Aharon Haliva, the head of Israel’s Military Intelligence Directorate, and Brigadier General Amit Saar, head of the Military Intelligence Directorate’s Research Division, in leaving their positions. While some resigned directly due to their roles in the events of October 7, others cited personal or unrelated reasons.

5️⃣ 🇲🇲 Myanmar’s junta targets journalists: In 2024, Myanmar has seen its deadliest year for journalists since the military coup, with three reporters killed just last month. This brings the total number of journalist deaths to four, marking a grim milestone since the military overthrew Aung San Suu Kyi’s government in February 2021. The coup, which triggered widespread public opposition and an armed resistance, has put journalists documenting the conflict and military abuses in extreme danger. Many have fled into exile or relocated to areas controlled by opposition forces, while others continue to work covertly amidst the junta’s escalating "terror campaign" against the press.

Major Story

🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇲🇲 THE EVOLVING DYNAMICS OF DRONE WARFARE

On September 10, Ukrainian forces conducted their largest unmanned attack of the war, deploying 144 drones against Moscow. The strike downed 20 Russian drones, ignited several residential buildings, and led to flight suspensions at major Russian airports. In retaliation, Russia launched 46 drones, highlighting the pivotal role of drones in the Ukraine conflict.

Drones, or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), are used for surveillance, targeting, and strikes. Since 9/11, the U.S. has expanded UAV use for counterterrorism, benefiting from their extended flight times—over 14 hours—and rapid response capabilities. Drones can strike targets within seconds, unlike slower manned systems.

U.S. defence strategy evaluates drones through three metrics: Tactical Military Effectiveness (TME), Operational Military Effectiveness (OME), and Strategic Military Effectiveness (SME). These measures assess how well drone strikes achieve immediate goals, influence broader military operations, and impact long-term strategic objectives.

Drones are increasingly vital in conflicts across Ukraine, Myanmar, and the Middle East. Both the U.S. and China are adapting their strategies based on these conflicts, with the U.S. developing a 'drone hellscape' strategy for Taiwan and China simulating drone attacks. Lessons from both advanced and underfunded forces are shaping future drone warfare.

In Myanmar, drones are heavily utilised by both the military and rebel groups. The Free Burma Rangers reported a September 6 drone strike by the Tatmadaw that killed four civilians. Rebel groups, like the People's Defense Forces (PDF), frequently conduct drone strikes using modified or homemade drones, while the junta employs drones with mortar shells.

FPV (First-Person View) drones have revolutionised warfare in Ukraine, where 100,000 are deployed monthly. Costing around $500, these drones can fly up to 20 kilometres and enable precise strikes on targets like tank hatches. Their cost-effectiveness contrasts sharply with the expensive military hardware they destroy.

As drone use grows, so does the need for counter-drone technology. Jammers, which disrupt drone signals, are crucial. In Myanmar, ethnic armies lack effective jammers, while Ukraine is developing advanced jamming devices to counter Russian drones. Ukraine has also established the Unmanned Systems Force (USF) and is working on AI-driven drones to overcome jamming.

Drone warfare is evolving rapidly, with ongoing innovations on the battlefield. U.S. support for Ukraine is advancing both the conflict and drone warfare research for future military strategies.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇵🇰 Pakistan says it has met the preconditions of $7 billion IMF loan: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced on Thursday that "friendly" nations have assisted Pakistan in fulfilling the conditions required to secure an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout. Pakistan has been striving to meet the IMF's criteria to finalise a $7 billion, 37-month loan package, agreed upon in July, with hopes that this will be the country's last IMF programme. The government aims to stabilise the economy and reduce dependence on external assistance.