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📰 AI summit begins

📰 AI summit begins

and Bangladesh faces turmoil

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
February 12, 2025

Hello,

In South Asia, Modi’s BJP secures its first victory in Delhi in 27 years, while Bangladesh grapples with democratic transition challenges. Meanwhile, Russia struggles to ease tensions with Azerbaijan, and Trump and Ishiba discuss deterrence strategies against China’s perceived aggression.

Our main story examines the implications of Trump's executive overreach on democracy and global stability, highlighting parallels with democratic backsliding in Hungary, Türkiye, and Poland, where leaders have systematically weakened judicial independence.

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Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 Ukraine requests U.S., European security guarantees before pursuing settlement talks: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has insisted that any peace deal proposed by Donald Trump must not only end the war but also prevent future Russian aggression. Speaking to British media, he warned against a frozen conflict, stressing the need for security guarantees to avoid repeated hostilities. Meanwhile, Trump suggested he had spoken with Vladimir Putin and claimed progress was being made toward ending the war, though Kremlin officials neither confirmed nor denied the conversation. As diplomatic efforts continue, Russia launched a drone strike on Kyiv, set to host U.S. envoys this week for talks on Ukraine’s future, while Moscow’s forces claimed control of Orekhovo-Vasylivna, a village near the key Ukrainian stronghold of Chasiv Yar.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇺🇬 🇰🇪 Parallel government dispute may see dismemberment of Taqadum coalition: A deepening rift within Sudan’s Taqadum coalition—the civilian coalition led by former prime minister Abdalla Hamdok—has led a joint political committee to recommend abandoning the alliance’s name, highlighting an imminent split over a proposed parallel government in RSF-controlled areas. Supported by the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) and certain political factions, the initiative has divided members, with some viewing it as a strategic necessity while others warn of further fragmentation. Attempts to reconcile differences—including meetings in Entebbe and Nairobi—have failed, prompting discussions on dissolving the coalition and forming new political alignments. Meanwhile, civil society groups, unions, and opposition factions reject the plan, fearing it will undermine efforts for a unified government, while SRF and its allies continue advancing the initiative.

3️⃣ 🇧🇩 Bangladesh’s democratic transition dilemma: Less than six months after mass protests ousted long-time Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, has set elections for December 2025 to June 2026, aiming to restore democracy after 15 years of autocratic rule. While the Awami League (AL) has been sidelined, Yunus’s administration faces mounting pressure to deliver reforms, stabilize the economy, and manage tensions with opposition forces, student groups, and Islamist factions. Relations with India remain strained, as New Delhi, a key backer of Hasina, shelters her in exile while restricting visas and curbing energy exports, fueling anti-Indian sentiment. Meanwhile, the government must also navigate growing instability along the Myanmar border and an unresolved Rohingya refugee crisis, all while balancing international expectations and domestic demands for meaningful change.

4️⃣ 🇪🇨 Noboa fails to defeat Gonzalez as Ecuador's presidential election goes to a runoff: Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa will face leftist challenger Luisa González in a runoff election on 13 April after an expected first-round result. With over 92% of votes counted, Noboa secured 44.31%, narrowly leading González by 45,000 votes in an electorate of 13.7 million. His presidency, marked by a hardline security approach against drug cartels, has faced criticism for human rights abuses, constitutional violations, and a deepening energy crisis. While he touts crime reduction, violence persists, and his emergency measures have drawn scrutiny, with Ecuador under a state of emergency for 250 days in 2024 alone.

5️⃣ 🇫🇷 Paris AI summit begins, world leaders and CEOs from 100 different countries in attendance: World leaders, top officials, and tech executives from around 100 countries have gathered in Paris for a two-day AI summit, where diplomatic discussions are expected amid growing competition in the industry. High-profile attendees include U.S. Vice President JD Vance, making his first international trip, and Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing. French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized AI’s transformative potential, urging Europe to take a leading role in harnessing it for societal benefit. Vance, accompanied by his family, sees the summit as an opportunity for private talks with world leaders, particularly on resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇯🇵 🇨🇳 Trump, Ishiba discuss deterrence against China’s ‘aggression’: At the White House, Trump and Japanese prime minister Shigeru Ishiba reaffirmed their alliance, vowing to counter Chinese “aggression” and resolving a dispute over U.S. Steel. Trump, however, urged Japan to eliminate the US trade deficit and warned of potential tariffs. While Ishiba aimed to replicate Shinzo Abe’s close ties with Trump, their talks also secured Japan’s $1 trillion investment in the U.S. and increased defense purchases. Despite concerns over Trump’s unpredictable stance on allies, both leaders emphasized long-standing security and trade ties, with Japan hoping to navigate Trump’s “America First” policies more smoothly than under Abe’s tenure.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇦🇿 Moscow struggles to defuse tension with Baku over passenger aircraft crash: Azerbaijan is intensifying its standoff with Russia following the downing of an Azerbaijani passenger jet, which some analysts suggest is indicative of Moscow’s waning influence in the former Soviet sphere. The December 25 crash near Aktau, Kazakhstan, killed 38 people, with Baku accusing Russian air defences of mistakenly shooting down the aircraft and attempting a cover-up. While Vladimir Putin issued a rare apology, he stopped short of admitting responsibility. Azerbaijan is now preparing to take legal action, gathering evidence for an international court case. Frustration in Baku has grown as Moscow remains silent, with Kazakh investigators confirming external damage to the aircraft but avoiding direct blame. Observers see Baku’s moves as a sign of its willingness to challenge Russian dominance, drawing parallels to past Kremlin denials, including the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17.

3️⃣ 🇮🇳 BJP wins Delhi elections for the first time in 27 years: Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has reclaimed power in Delhi after 27 years, dealing a crushing blow to Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Once a formidable force driven by an anti-corruption movement, AAP saw its support collapse, dropping from 63 seats in 2020 to just 22, while BJP secured 48 in the 70-seat assembly. As BJP supporters celebrated, Kejriwal’s party headquarters remained locked, symbolizing its dramatic decline. Analysts see this victory as a testament to BJP’s strategic dominance, with Delhi—India’s political heart—now under its control. Political expert Rasheed Kidwai noted that BJP’s success in Delhi signals its ability to win nationwide, highlighting its precise constituency management and growing appeal across India's diverse electorate.