Geopolitics Daily
Posts
📰 Somalia unrest

📰 Somalia unrest

and Gaza ceasefire will proceed

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
February 25, 2025

Hello,

In Ukraine, Zelenskyy rejects U.S. terms for a mineral deal as the war enters its fourth year, while the UN Security Council calls for peace. In the Middle East, U.S. officials assert that the Gaza ceasefire’s second phase will proceed as planned.

Meanwhile, the global shift away from the U.S. dollar accelerates, and Somali security forces repel an al-Shabaab assault across multiple locations in the Middle Shabelle region.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇸🇾 Netanyahu demands ‘full demilitarization’ of southern Syria: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Israel would not permit Syrian military forces to operate south of Damascus, calling for the full demilitarization of Quneitra, Daraa, and Suwayda, vowing to prevent the entry of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or the new Syrian army into the area. Following Bashar al-Assad’s ousting last December, Israel has expanded its presence into a UN-designated buffer zone between the occupied Golan Heights and southern Syria. Despite a 1974 ceasefire agreement mandating demilitarization, Israeli forces have moved into the zone, establishing military posts and conducting airstrikes. Netanyahu stated that Israeli troops would remain in the area indefinitely to counter perceived threats, including to the Druze community, many of whom oppose Israeli expansion into southwestern Syria.

2️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 Zelenskyy rejects mineral deal terms: Over the weekend, the U.S. and Ukraine sent conflicting signals, with Kyiv demanding better terms for a mineral rights deal pursued by President Trump, while Washington pressed Ukraine to accept the existing proposal. This disagreement is part of a broader tension between the U.S. and its allies regarding the approach to resolving the war in Ukraine. France and the U.K. are planning to visit Washington this week to advocate for Ukraine’s interests. As the Trump administration’s stance strains trans-Atlantic relations, tensions between the U.S. and its European partners reach boiling point.

3️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇧🇩 🇮🇳 Pakistan, Bangladesh pursue regional realignment, boost bilateral ties: The 2024 political shift in Bangladesh is reshaping South Asian geopolitical dynamics, with Dhaka strengthening ties with Pakistan while relations with India sour. The interim government of Muhammad Yunus has distanced itself from New Delhi, rejecting Indian interference and fostering closer cooperation with Islamabad, as seen in growing defence collaboration and economic engagement. Concurrently, Bangladesh’s pivot towards China, driven by economic incentives under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), further complicates India’s security calculus, raising fears of a Bangladesh-China-Pakistan strategic alignment. New Delhi may seek U.S. backing to counter this emerging bloc, but Washington’s pressure on Dhaka to curb ties with Beijing is unlikely to succeed.

4️⃣ 🇨🇴 ELN clashes with security forces as Cúcuta imposes curfew: Northern Colombia is bracing for further bloodshed as conflict between rival armed groups spreads into urban centres. In Cúcuta, a city of one million, the mayor imposed a 48-hour curfew after National Liberation Army (ELN) fighters attacked police stations and detonated car bombs. The violence, which has displaced over 122,000 people, is the latest setback for President Gustavo Petro’s struggling peace efforts. Fighting in the Catatumbo region has killed at least 80 people and displaced 50,000 since mid-January, while separate clashes in the Amazon and Chocó have heightened fears of nationwide instability. Colombia’s rights ombudsman reports that armed groups have surged from 141 in 2022 to 184 in 2024, as criminal factions fight for control of drug trafficking and contraband.

5️⃣ 🇸🇴 Somali security forces repel al-Shabaab assault on several locations in Middle Shabelle region: Somali officials report that 130 al-Shaabab militants were killed as government forces repelled coordinated attacks on four military bases in the Middle Shabelle region. While the death toll remains unverified, authorities stated that the militants used explosives but were unable to breach defensive barriers. In a separate operation, Puntland forces killed at least 20 Islamic State fighters, all described as foreign nationals, during clashes in the Cal Miskaad mountains. Meanwhile, U.S. airstrikes this month targeted senior Islamic State operatives in the region, including Omani-born leader Ahmed Maeleninine, as Somalia intensifies efforts to eliminate extremist threats.

Major Story

🇺🇦 🇷🇺 🇺🇳 UKRAINE WAR ENTERS FOURTH YEAR AS SECURITY COUNCIL CALLS FOR PEACE

In the early hours of February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. After failing to achieve a quick victory, the conflict has dragged on for three years, evolving into a war of attrition marked by heavy casualties, widespread destruction, shifting front lines and one of the fastest-growing refugee crises.

Rosemary DiCarlo, UN Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs, addressed the Security Council, warning that Russia’s ongoing attacks continue to undermine global stability. She highlighted a worsening humanitarian situation, citing the destruction of healthcare and education systems, the mistreatment of prisoners of war, and an escalating conflict that now affects Russian territory. She also raised concerns over nuclear safety risks, referencing a recent drone strike near the Chernobyl reactor site.

Food Insecurity Deepens Amid Prolonged Conflict

As the war drags on, millions of Ukrainians face worsening food shortages. The World Food Programme (WFP) reports that five million people are food insecure, particularly in frontline regions. In Kherson, over half the population struggles with severe hunger, while two in five face similar conditions in Zaporizhzhya and Donetsk. Many families are forced to ration meals, skip food, or incur debt just to survive. Despite ongoing aid efforts, WFP officials stress that humanitarian relief remains a crucial lifeline for millions.

Security Council Adopts Resolution Calling for Peace

In a significant diplomatic move, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 2774, a US-drafted proposal urging an end to hostilities. Although amendments proposed by Russia were rejected, the resolution signals a shift in Washington’s approach under the new administration. US Ambassador Dorothy Shea called it a “crucial first step” toward a lasting peace. However, Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia expressed skepticism, arguing that Western nations continue to distort peace efforts for political gain.

While the resolution reflects renewed diplomatic efforts, the road to peace remains uncertain. The deep-seated geopolitical rifts and the ongoing humanitarian crisis highlight the challenges of achieving a sustainable resolution to the war.

Promotion

Unlock exclusive insights with our premium weekly newsletter.
Discover stories that flew under the radar.
Explore next week’s geopolitical milestones.
Weekly updates on the world’s most critical regions.
Help us take Horizon Geopolitics to the next level! Support the channel and fuel the creation of even better, high-quality content.

Subscribe to Our Premium Newsletter

Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 Global de-dollarization trend continues to grow: Since the end of World War II, the U.S. dollar has remained the dominant global currency, with central banks holding 58% of their reserves in dollars as of mid-2024. This status was solidified at the 1944 Bretton Woods Conference, where allied nations pegged international balances to the gold-backed dollar, given the U.S.'s economic strength and vast gold reserves. Although the system ended in 1971, the dollar continues to dominate trade, largely due to the U.S. economy’s scale, military power, and geopolitical influence. However, Washington’s frequent use of financial sanctions—most recently blocking $300 billion in Russian reserves—has driven countries to seek alternatives. China and Russia now conduct most trade in yuan, and BRICS is advancing plans for a shared currency. Despite these shifts, analysts argue that replacing the dollar will take decades due to its deep integration into global finance.

2️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 🇺🇸 Gaza ceasefire phase two will proceed as planned, says Witkoff: U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff stated that Washington expects progress on the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal and confirmed plans to visit the region this week to advance negotiations. His remarks followed Israel’s delay in releasing Palestinian prisoners, insisting that further hostage exchanges must be secured first. The UN has condemned the treatment of both Israeli and Palestinian hostages, highlighting severe conditions on both sides. Meanwhile, accusations of war crimes and genocide against Israel persist as the death toll in Gaza surpasses 61,000, with mass displacement and famine worsening the crisis.