Geopolitics Daily
Posts
📰 China building 1,000 nukes

📰 China building 1,000 nukes

and France’s political gridlock

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
December 20, 2024

In partnership with

Hello and welcome back.

India and China take centre stage in today’s developments: Beijing and Delhi are making diplomatic strides toward resolving their Himalayan border dispute, while in defence news, China is reportedly building an additional 1,000 nuclear warheads, and the Russia-Ukraine war is driving India to diversify its defence partnerships.

In the Middle East, Israel has intensified attacks in Gaza and southern Lebanon. Today’s leading story focuses on France’s ongoing political deadlock.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Russia-Ukraine war prompts Indian defence diversification: India’s defense strategy reflects its delicate balancing act in a multipolar world, where national security and strategic autonomy are paramount. While the Russia-India defense relationship remains strong, underscored by collaborations like the INS Tushil frigate and nuclear submarine technology, delays in Russian deliveries due to the Ukraine war have prompted diversification. The U.S. has emerged as a key partner, supplying advanced systems such as Apache helicopters and becoming India’s second-largest arms supplier between 2019 and 2023. Simultaneously, ties with France, the UK, and Israel have deepened, with notable deals like the $8.8 billion Rafale acquisition and collaborations on cutting-edge missile systems.

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 China building additional 1’000 nuclear warheads, says Pentagon: China's nuclear arsenal is expanding rapidly, with the Pentagon predicting it will surpass 1,000 warheads by 2030. The latest report highlights a stockpile increase of over 100 warheads in the past year, bringing the total to more than 600. This growth accompanies efforts to modernize intercontinental ballistic missiles and develop new conventional ICBMs capable of reaching U.S. territories. Despite maintaining a "no first use" policy, China’s defence spending—estimated at $330 to $450 billion for 2024—remains shrouded in opacity, with actual figures believed to exceed publicly disclosed budgets by at least 40%. Meanwhile, the incoming Trump administration is poised to adopt a hardline approach to Beijing, leveraging tariffs and economic pressure while assembling a team of China hawks, signalling heightened tensions in the years ahead.

3️⃣ 🇮🇷 Iranian rial value plummets amid energy, geopolitical crises: The Iranian rial has plunged to its lowest value in history, trading at 777,000 to the dollar, compared to 703,000 when Donald Trump won the U.S. presidency. This dramatic decline, compounded by sanctions and underinvestment, coincides with Iran’s worsening energy crisis, which has forced school, university, and office closures amid severe winter conditions. Despite Iran’s vast oil and gas reserves, years of neglect have led to rolling blackouts and fuel shortages. President Masoud Pezeshkian, elected after Ebrahim Raisi’s death in May, has vowed to negotiate sanctions relief, but the economy remains burdened by nuclear program-related tensions and international isolation.

4️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇪🇺 China’s 2024 exports see record boom, EU exports dwindle: China's domestic economic challenges and expanding manufacturing capacity, supported by state-directed credit policies, have fueled a surge in exports. Falling export prices, such as those for solar panels, have driven rapid growth in export volumes, outpacing the dollar value of exports. Data from the General Administration of Customs of China and the Dutch CPB confirms this trend, with Chinese export volumes rising over 12%, far exceeding global trade growth of about 3%. In contrast, Chinese import volumes have shrunk, creating a 10-percentage-point gap between export and import growth, contributing approximately 2% to GDP. This export boom comes at the expense of the EU, whose exports have lagged behind global trade, particularly Germany. The German government faces critical decisions to protect its economy, especially as domestic firms risk becoming overly reliant on Chinese manufacturing.

5️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇹🇷 Rojava’s at critical juncture following HTS Syria takeover: The sudden collapse of the Assad regime has left Kurdish Rojava—or the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria—in a precarious position. They face threats from Ankara-backed forces, including the Syrian National Army (SNA), Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Turkiye’s own military. With the Assad regime no longer a somewhat stabilising ally and U.S. forces in northeastern Syria potentially withdrawing, their autonomy struggle is at a precarious juncture. As regional geopolitics remain fluid and Syria’s territorial integrity uncertain, the implications for Kurdish movements across Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Iraq demand careful analysis.

Major Story

🇫🇷 🇩🇪 🇪🇺 FRANCE’S POLITICAL STALEMATE: CHALLENGES AND RISKS

After a poor performance in the June 2024 European Parliament elections, French President Emmanuel Macron called snap legislative elections in hopes of regaining a majority. Instead, the National Assembly remains deadlocked between three incompatible factions. Prime Minister Michel Barnier's failure to pass an austerity budget in December led to his ousting, and Macron appointed François Bayrou to address the same fiscal challenges. Bayrou now faces mounting polarisation over economic reforms, immigration, and public services, which complicates passing a budget to curb France’s fiscal deficit of 6.1% of GDP.

Implications for the EU and Global Role

Despite domestic instability, Macron retains significant foreign policy authority, spearheading EU defense initiatives and diplomatic efforts in Ukraine and the Middle East. However, broader European leadership is faltering as Germany also faces political turmoil. Without strong Franco-German alignment, figures like Italy’s Giorgia Meloni or Hungary’s Viktor Orbán may pursue unilateral deals, risking further EU fragmentation, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. The European Commission's leaders must rally cohesion to prevent discord from undermining the bloc’s unity and global standing, writes Matthias Matthijs.

Promotion

A new Paradigm: Unbiased, Uncensored AI

Ditch the censorship, preserve your privacy
Experience unbiased machine intelligence with Venice
Get started for free, or upgrade to Pro with 20% off

Ask Uncensored AI

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 🇱🇧 Israel steps up attacks in Gaza, south Lebanon: At least 38 people have been killed and 203 wounded in the past 24 hours due to Israeli attacks in Gaza, according to the territory’s Health Ministry. In northern Gaza, Kamal Adwan Hospital has come under renewed attack, while fire in designated “safe zones” in central and southern Gaza killed several more. Meanwhile, Hamas claims a ceasefire is possible if Israel ceased imposing new conditions, but Israel’s defence minister has asserted plans to maintain full security control in Gaza post-war. Across the border, Israel demolished homes in Tayr Harfa, al-Jabeen, and Shiheen in southern Lebanon, breaching the ceasefire agreement with Hizbollah.

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇮🇳 Beijing, Delhi pursue Himalayan border dispute resolution: China and India have agreed to pursue a resolution to their prolonged Himalayan border dispute following heightened tensions since a deadly clash in Ladakh in 2020—the first such confrontation since 1975. This development builds on an October agreement to manage border patrols, which helped ease the stalemate. After recent talks between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, both sides committed to a "fair and reasonable" roadmap, prioritising simpler measures before addressing more complex issues. Additionally, the two nations plan to enhance cross-border exchanges, including reinstating Indian pilgrimages to Tibet.