Geopolitics Daily
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📰 India and Sri Lanka Strike Deal

📰 India and Sri Lanka Strike Deal

and Asian Stock Markets Plunge

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
April 07, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics daily,

Today, a Colombian rebel faction moves closer to peace by surrendering weapons to the state, the Dominican Republic ramps up border security amid Haiti’s crisis, and Asian stock markets nosedive in response to Trump’s sweeping tariffs.

Our main story examines Europe’s undersea cable infrastructure, and the escalating threat of sabotage.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇮🇱 🇸🇾 Turkey, Israel face regional confrontation after Israeli air force bombards Syrian bases: Turkey had recently surveyed three air bases in Syria—T4, Palmyra, and Hama—as potential sites for military deployment under a proposed defence pact, before Israel launched targeted airstrikes on them this week, according to multiple regional sources. The strikes highlight rising tensions between Israel and Turkey, as Ankara seeks to expand its role in post-Assad Syria while attempting to allay U.S. concerns. Israel, alarmed by the new HTS-linked government in Damascus and wary of Turkish military entrenchment, reportedly views the move as a threat to its regional freedom of action. Turkish officials, meanwhile, insist their actions are aimed at stabilising Syria, not confronting Israel, though the damage to T4 base and Israel’s rhetoric signal otherwise.

2️⃣ 🇭🇰 🇰🇷 🇯🇵 Asian stock markets plunge: Global stock markets have tumbled in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, with Taiwan’s TAIEX and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng both plunging by around 10%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 falling nearly 9%. Trump, speaking aboard Air Force One, defended the tariffs, claiming many world leaders are “dying to make a deal.” Wall Street is bracing for further declines after last week’s selloff wiped out over $6 trillion in value. Reflecting the growing alarm, Goldman Sachs has raised its U.S. recession forecast to 45%, up from 20% a month ago, while JPMorgan estimates a 60% chance of recession both in the U.S. and globally.

3️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇱🇰 India, Sri Lanka sign defence and energy deals: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake on Saturday, overseeing the signing of key energy and defense agreements aimed at strengthening bilateral ties and countering China's regional influence. A new five-year defense pact will facilitate training for Sri Lankan forces in India and deepen cooperation through the Colombo Security Conclave, which also includes Bangladesh, the Maldives, and Mauritius. Modi emphasised the shared security interests of both nations, while Dissanayake pledged not to allow Sri Lankan territory to be used against India. The leaders also launched a long-delayed, Indian-funded 120-megawatt solar plant in Trincomalee—part of a broader Indian strategy to expand influence in a country where China remains the largest bilateral creditor and key investor.

4️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant remains too dangerous to restart, warns Ukraine: Restarting the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant would be unsafe under current conditions and could take Ukraine up to two years in peacetime, according to Energoatom chief Petro Kotin. He cited serious obstacles, including damaged infrastructure, lack of personnel, and military presence at the site. Russia has signalled plans to eventually restart the plant, but experts warn this would require major safety overhauls, reconnection of power lines, and removal of mines and armed forces. As the facility remains on the war’s front line, any restart—especially under Russian control—poses significant nuclear risks and geopolitical complications.

5️⃣ 🇩🇴 🇭🇹 Dominican Republic to further securitise border with Haiti: President Luis Abinader has announced new border security measures and migration restrictions in response to growing instability in Haiti. He pledged to deploy 1,500 additional troops and accelerate construction of the border wall, adding 13km to the 54km already completed. Amid pressure to ease deportations, Abinader instead reaffirmed plans to repatriate thousands of Haitians weekly and introduce tougher penalties against those facilitating illegal entry. With over a million Haitians displaced and gang violence worsening in Port-au-Prince, Abinader has called for international support while reinforcing the Dominican Republic’s hardline stance on migration.

Major Story

🇪🇺 🇷🇺 EUROPE’S SUBTERRANEAN INFRASTRUCTURE AND GROWING THREAT OF SABOTAGE

As geopolitical tensions intensify, European officials are increasingly alarmed by sabotage targeting critical undersea infrastructure. Finland’s coast guard, led by Deputy Commander Ilja Iljin, now devotes substantial resources to monitoring the Baltic Sea for threats to power and data cables. With at least six suspected sabotage incidents in the region since 2022, vulnerabilities have become clear: cables are easy to damage, expensive to repair, and vital to daily life.

Russia is suspected, but rarely confirmed, as exploiting this gray zone — applying minimal, deniable pressure to test Europe’s defences and unity. The EU and NATO are responding with surveillance upgrades, new legal tools, and investments in repair capacity. But limited jurisdiction in international waters, combined with waning U.S. support, underlines just how precarious Europe’s maritime security truly is.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 Tensions rise between Kurds, Azeris in northwestern Iran: Communal tensions erupted in the Iranian city of Urmia as confrontations between ethnic Kurds and Azeris escalated during Nowruz celebrations, which coincided with Ramadan and the anniversary of Imam Ali’s martyrdom. While Kurdish communities marked the New Year with public gatherings, some Shia Azeris viewed the festivities as disrespectful, triggering a protest on March 22 that included Turkish nationalist slogans and symbols. Authorities were criticized for failing to prevent the unrest, with political and civil society figures calling for accountability and warning against the rise of ethnic nationalism. Observers have pointed to domestic mismanagement, separatist movements, and Turkish influence as contributing factors to the unrest.

2️⃣ 🇨🇴 Colombian rebel group moves toward peace, hands armaments over to state: In a landmark move for President Gustavo Petro’s “total peace” agenda, the Comuneros del Sur—a dissident faction of Colombia’s ELN guerrilla group—has become the first to surrender weapons. The group handed over 585 explosive devices and agreed to reintegrate its 100 members into civilian life, including replacing 5,000 hectares of illicit crops. The transitional deal includes demining operations, local development, and victim reparations. Though hailed as a breakthrough, critics warn that power remains concentrated in hardline factions and that some former fighters may be rearming under new banners. Still, the gesture represents a significant step toward peace in Nariño, one of Colombia’s most conflict-stricken regions. President Petro called the process “irreversible,” while peace commissioner Otty Patiño praised it as a hopeful sign of transformation.