Geopolitics Daily
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📰 India and EU issue retaliatory tariffs

📰 India and EU issue retaliatory tariffs

and Haitian gangs escalate offensive

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
April 02, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

In South Asia, Pakistan pursues mass expulsion of Afghan migrants, while in Israeli domestic politics, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich briefly resigns from the Knesset, and the deepening 'Qatargate' scandal threatens to engulf Prime Minister Netanyahu's inner circle.

Our top story today examines ASEAN’s evolving strategic imperative in an increasingly multipolar world.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇺🇸 White House threatens trade war following India’s 100% tariff on American agricultural goods: At a press conference, U.S. President Donald Trump said he’d heard India plans to drastically reduce tariffs on American goods—a move he claimed should have happened long ago. His comments come just ahead of an April 2 announcement of new U.S. tariffs, which the White House says target countries with "unfair" trade practices. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt singled out India’s 100% tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, calling them prohibitive and exploitative. Trump is set to reveal the new measures—dubbed "Liberation Day"—in a high-profile Rose Garden event, aiming to reset trade terms with countries like India, Japan, Canada, and the EU in favour of American exporters.

2️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇺🇸 Von der Leyen readies response to Trump's tariffs but prefers negotiation: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said the EU is prepared to respond decisively to new US tariffs, though it hopes to resolve the dispute through dialogue. Addressing the European Parliament, von der Leyen noted that Europe hadn’t initiated the confrontation, but would not hesitate to retaliate if necessary. Trump’s administration is imposing tariffs on steel, aluminium, and potentially cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. In response, the EU is finalising a phased retaliation plan, including reinstating tariffs on $4.5bn of US goods—such as jeans and motorbikes—and preparing additional measures worth €18bn. The bloc is also weighing action against US services and intellectual property, though internal divisions, particularly France’s concerns about wine exports, could complicate consensus.

3️⃣ 🇲🇲 🇺🇳 Prevailing conflict and Junta governance hinders Myanmar earthquake response: A powerful 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar on 28 March, killing at least 2,700 people and levelling parts of Mandalay, Sagaing, and Naypyitaw. The epicentre, just north of Sagaing and near Mandalay, triggered severe aftershocks and left buildings crumbling and hospitals overwhelmed. With bridges, roads, and airports damaged, relief efforts have stalled, and many survivors remain trapped or homeless in extreme heat. The military, largely absent from rescue efforts, faces public distrust following years of repression, while rural areas under armed resistance remain cut off from communication and aid. Reconstruction costs are expected to reach tens of billions of dollars—funds the junta is unlikely to access given global isolation and the ongoing civil conflict.

4️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇶🇦 ‘Qatargate’ scandal engulfs Neyanyahu’s inner circle: Israeli police on Monday arrested two top aides to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—media advisor Jonathan Urich and military spokesperson Eli Feldstein—over alleged secret dealings with Qatari officials. They are accused of bribery, money laundering, fraud, and contact with a foreign agent. Investigators suspect they covertly promoted Qatar’s interests, including whitewashing its image in Israel through media manipulation and facilitating journalist visits. The scandal has deepened as reports suggest their actions may have compromised classified material. Netanyahu, already facing multiple corruption charges, was forced to interrupt his court testimony to address the affair. He has denied wrongdoing and labelled the investigation politically motivated, even attempting to dismiss the Shin Bet chief overseeing the probe—sparking a national outcry and judicial intervention.

5️⃣ 🇭🇹 🇺🇳 Armed gangs attack Mirebalais, central Haiti, extending power beyond Port-au-Prince: Heavily armed gangs overran Mirebalais in central Haiti on Monday, storming a prison and releasing over 500 inmates, according to local reports. Videos showed gunmen celebrating as crowds chanted, “They can’t stop us.” Schools were closed, and residents fled as homes and buildings were torched. The attackers, linked to gangs like the Taliban and 400 Mawozo—both part of the "Viv Ansanm" coalition—reportedly wore red shirts bearing gang names. These groups have intensified efforts to seize territory, with simultaneous strikes on nearby Saut-d’Eau prompting urgent appeals from police unions. Analysts warn the gangs aim to stretch security forces thin by opening multiple fronts, ultimately to topple the government and consolidate control across Haiti, where 85% of Port-au-Prince is already under their sway.

Major Story

🇮🇩 🇲🇾 ASEAN AT A CROSSROADS: FROM FRAGMENTED BLOC TO STRATEGIC GLOBAL ACTOR

The U.S., increasingly seen as unpredictable under Trump’s leadership, has unsettled global alliances—leaving countries like those in ASEAN exposed. While developed powers can recalibrate with relative ease, the risks for Southeast Asian states—heavily reliant on trade and foreign investment—are greater. Indonesia’s capital outflows and market instability reflect this vulnerability.

As the global order shifts, ASEAN must recall precedents like the Non-Aligned Movement or Europe’s “Concert of Powers” to guide its path. Unity, non-alignment, and multilateralism must underpin ASEAN’s evolution. Malaysia, as current chair, has a vital role in rallying members to define ASEAN not as a passive observer, but as a proactive bridge for the Global South and a key actor in global governance.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 Bezalel Smotrich briefly resigns from Israeli Knesset following Ben Gvir demands: Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich submitted his resignation as a cabinet minister on Monday in a strategic move to reclaim his seat in the Knesset under the Religious Zionism banner. The maneuver, which is expected to be temporary, will see him reappointed after this week’s Knesset vote, but it displaces Otzma Yehudit MK Yitzhak Kroizer, who entered parliament under the ‘Norwegian Law’. Smotrich’s move is widely seen as retaliation for National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s breach of coalition agreements, particularly following Otzma Yehudit’s brief withdrawal from the government earlier this year. Internal tensions persist, as Ben Gvir has refused to give up his seat to restore Kroizer’s position, while other party members are either barred or unwilling to do so.

2️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇦🇫 Pakistan plans mass expulsion of Afghans from country: Pakistan is preparing to deport 3 million Afghans this year, as a deadline for voluntary departure from Islamabad and Rawalpindi expired on March 31. This marks a continuation of a crackdown launched in October 2023 against undocumented foreigners, drawing criticism from the UN, rights groups, and the Taliban. While around 845,000 Afghans have already left, Pakistan estimates another 3 million remain—some with registration cards, others without documentation. Deportations, delayed until April 10 due to Eid holidays, will target those without legal status, including Afghans awaiting third-country resettlement, as the U.S. refugee programme remains frozen under President Trump.