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📰 New Zealand confronts China

📰 New Zealand confronts China

and Ethiopian PM visits Mogadishu

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
February 28, 2025

Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

In Sudan, the SAF has gained the upper hand in South Kordofan, pushing RSF-allied SPLM-N forces into retreat. Meanwhile, Kenya’s government may face legal repercussions over its meeting with RSF leader Hemedti. Elsewhere, analysts warn that the USAID funding freeze could undermine U.S. strategic interests in the Middle East.

Today's top story focuses on Iran, where Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has arrived for talks on economic cooperation, U.S. sanctions, and regional developments.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇸🇾 Imprisoned Kurdistan Workers’ Party leader calls for group’s dissolution: Imprisoned Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan has urged the group to lay down arms and disband, citing Türkiye’s democratic reforms and shifting regional dynamics. His statement, read by pro-Kurdish politicians after a visit to his Imrali Island prison, was broadcast across Kurdish-majority cities. While Syrian Kurdish groups affiliated with the PKK expressed agreement, Turkish officials warned that any factions resisting disarmament would face military action. The Turkish government’s engagement with Ocalan is seen as part of a broader strategy to neutralize the Kurdish issue amid rising regional tensions.

2️⃣ 🇦🇹 🇪🇺 Austrian centrist parties reach deal to govern, far right excluded: Austria’s conservative People’s Party (ÖVP) announced a coalition agreement on Thursday with two centrist parties, excluding the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), despite its victory in September’s elections. After months of deadlocked negotiations, efforts to form Austria’s first far-right-led government collapsed, prompting the ÖVP, Social Democrats (SPÖ), and liberals to revive coalition talks. ÖVP leader Christian Stocker described the agreement as one of the most challenging in Austria’s history, with the new government set to implement stricter migration policies, including a temporary suspension of family reunification for asylum seekers. While the FPÖ remains ahead in opinion polls, analysts predict the three-party coalition will provide stability but struggle with declining public support.

3️⃣ 🇪🇹 🇸🇴 🇹🇷 Ethiopian PM visits Mogadishu in bid to improve relations: Several mortar rounds were fired toward Mogadishu’s airport as the Somali capital prepared for a visit from Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, local media reported. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was at the airport’s VIP section to receive Abiy when the attack occurred, though no casualties were confirmed. Security in the city was already heightened, with a strict lockdown in place ahead of the visit. The leaders are expected to discuss bilateral issues, including security cooperation and trade, following the Ankara Declaration, which helped ease tensions between the two nations after nearly a year of strained relations.

4️⃣ 🇰🇪 🇸🇩 Kenyan government may face legal consequences after meeting with RSF’s Hemedti: A petition has been filed in Kenya’s High Court to prevent Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) from signing political agreements with armed and political groups in Nairobi, after a meeting between Kenya’s president, William Ruto, and the Sudanese armed group’s leader, Hamdan Dagalo ‘Hemedti’ in Nairobi. The petitioners argue that hosting RSF leaders undermines Kenya’s neutrality, threatens national security, and could provoke retaliatory actions from Sudan. They claim the Kenyan government’s engagement with RSF violates constitutional principles and damages diplomatic relations. Meanwhile, legal and international experts stress that ending Sudan’s war requires halting arms supplies to all factions, as sanctions alone have proven ineffective.

5️⃣ 🇳🇿 🇨🇳 New Zealand’s foreign minister travels to Beijing, voices concern over Tasman sea exercises: New Zealand’s Foreign Minister Winston Peters raised concerns with Chinese officials over Beijing’s recent live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea, citing inadequate notice given to New Zealand. During talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Vice Premier Han Zheng, Peters highlighted the need for improved communication to prevent disruptions, particularly for commercial airlines. He also expressed unease over China’s growing engagement with the Cook Islands, stressing the importance of respecting New Zealand’s constitutional ties with its Pacific neighbour. Discussions also covered trade and emerging sectors, with China urging collaboration on artificial intelligence and the green economy.

Major Story

🇮🇷 🇷🇺 LAVROV VISITS TEHRAN FOR U.S. SANCTIONS DISCUSSIONS

During a visit to Tehran on 25 February, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, discussed economic collaboration, U.S. sanctions, and regional affairs. Araghchi reaffirmed Iran’s refusal to engage in direct negotiations with the US under its "maximum pressure" sanctions policy, while Lavrov highlighted a 13% increase in trade between Russia and Iran despite these restrictions. He also emphasized the expected implementation of a free trade agreement between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which could further boost economic ties.

The ministers addressed regional stability, particularly in Syria, where both countries share common strategic interests. Lavrov also expressed hope for resolving the Iran nuclear deal crisis, blaming U.S. policies for the current deadlock.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 USAID freeze endangers U.S. strategic interests, say analysts: The Trump administration’s decision to halt foreign aid through an executive order has caused widespread disruption, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa. While past U.S. leaders have recognized foreign aid as vital to national security, the abrupt freeze has forced critical programmes to shut down, endangering regional stability and U.S. credibility. Despite bipartisan support for aid, implementing partners were ordered to cease operations immediately, USAID staff were drastically reduced, and billions in assistance remain on hold, impacting humanitarian relief, economic recovery, and security cooperation. The administration’s claims of wasteful spending lack empirical backing, and its approach risks long-term damage to U.S. strategic interests. If reform were the true objective, it could have been pursued responsibly, rather than through a reckless, punitive dismantling of essential aid programmes.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 SAF gains upper hand in South Kordofan, RSF-allied SPLM-N forced into retreat: The Sudanese army (SAF) has partially broken the siege on Al-Dilling in South Kordofan, securing a key route to the state capital, Kadugli, after pushing back Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) rebels. The city had been under blockade for months, with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) controlling access from the north and east, while SPLM-N restricted goods from the south and west. On Sunday, the army advanced from Kadugli, capturing key areas before linking up with the 54th Infantry Brigade near Al-Samasim. Fighting has displaced many residents, intensifying ethnic tensions in the city, while previous RSF offensives on Dilling’s military garrison were repelled by a combined force of the army, SPLM-N factions, and local resistance groups.