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📰 Niger junta cements rule

📰 Niger junta cements rule

and Bolsonaro faces coup trial

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
March 28, 2025

Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

Today, Iraq and the UAE jostle for influence as mediators between Iran and the U.S., Niger’s junta leader is sworn in for a five-year transitional presidency, and South Sudan moves perilously closer to renewed civil war.

Our top story focuses on the United States and Latin America, where Trump’s deportation doctrine and his partnership with El Salvador’s President Bukele have sparked a legal and political tempest.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 Canada-U.S. ties sink to new low following sweeping tariffs: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has declared that the era of close U.S.-Canada ties has ended, following President Donald Trump's decision to impose a 25% tariff on car imports starting 3 April. Calling the move “unjustified” and in violation of trade agreements, Carney warned it marked a permanent shift in bilateral relations. He vowed to coordinate with provincial leaders and businesses on retaliatory measures that would target the U.S. while limiting harm to Canada. As global criticism mounts—from Paris to Berlin—over Trump’s tariffs, European leaders have warned of economic fallout and signaled plans for a unified response through the EU.

2️⃣ 🇸🇸 🇺🇳 South Sudan opposition says Riek Machar has been arrested, UN warns of a renewed civil war: The United Nations has expressed grave concern over South Sudan’s deteriorating political situation, warning that the country risks sliding back into civil war. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is closely monitoring developments, especially the reported house arrest of First Vice President Riek Machar, which peace partners say undermines the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement. UN officials are urging all parties, including President Salva Kiir and Machar, to peacefully resolve their differences and prioritise national stability. With over 9 million South Sudanese already in urgent need of humanitarian assistance, the UN cautioned that another conflict would be catastrophic for the population.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇸🇾 🇱🇧 🇵🇸 🇪🇺 Israel strikes Syria, Lebanon, Gaza; EU issues warning: In recent weeks, Israel has dramatically escalated its military operations in Syria, launching over 70 ground incursions and dozens of airstrikes, while also striking Lebanon and Gaza. This surge in aggression follows the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and threatens to derail the interim government's fragile efforts to rebuild the country and maintain regional calm. Despite no recent attacks from Syrian territory, Israel has advanced deeper into Syria, citing security concerns and calls for southern demilitarization. With Turkey preparing to back Syria’s airspace sovereignty and Iran-linked insurgents re-emerging, Israel’s actions risk triggering a broader conflict just as a post-Assad Syria signals readiness to reengage with the international community.

4️⃣ 🇧🇷 Bolsonaro to stand trial over alleged 2023 coup attempt: Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsonaro will face trial over an alleged coup plot to block the 2022 transfer of power to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The Supreme Court ruled there is sufficient evidence linking Bolsonaro to a failed attempt to prevent Lula’s inauguration, including charges of forming an armed group that plotted assassinations of top officials. Bolsonaro denies all allegations, calling the case a politically motivated attack. Although he hopes to run in 2026, he is currently barred from holding office until 2030 due to prior attempts to undermine Brazil’s electoral system.

5️⃣ 🇵🇱 🇺🇸 There is ‘No Alternative’ to NATO, says secretary-general Mark Rutte: NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte delivered a firm defence of transatlantic unity in a lecture at the Warsaw School of Economics, urging both Europe and the U.S. to reject isolationism amid mounting global security threats. He acknowledged current tensions over trade and sovereignty but stressed that neither side could manage these challenges alone. Rutte underlined the irreplaceable role of NATO, including the U.S. nuclear deterrent, in safeguarding European security. Expressing confidence in Washington’s continued commitment to NATO, he pointed to President Trump’s repeated affirmations, bipartisan congressional backing, and strong American public support.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇻🇪 🇸🇻 TRUMP’S DEPORTATION DOCTRINE: TREN DE ARAGUA, EL SALVADOR, AND A LEGAL FIRESTORM

On 15 March, the Trump administration invoked the 1798 Alien Enemies Act to justify the mass deportation of alleged members of Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua gang, claiming they act on orders from President Nicolás Maduro. The law, last used during WWII, was repurposed as the legal foundation to deport 238 people to El Salvador—137 of them under the Act. Many are now being held in El Salvador’s CECOT prison, a maximum-security facility renowned for its iron-fist approach to gang crime.

Legal and Constitutional Challenges

This move has sparked an immediate wave of legal challenges. U.S. judges issued orders to halt specific deportations, but the flights went ahead. Critics argue the administration is pushing the boundaries of executive power, exploiting vague definitions of group affiliation and disregarding judicial oversight. Tom Homan, Trump’s border czar, doubled down on the policy, suggesting the administration would press on regardless of judicial criticism.

Regional Implications and Authoritarian Alliances

By outsourcing detentions to El Salvador, the U.S. aligns itself with President Nayib Bukele’s heavy-handed model of incarceration, raising concerns over human rights and due process. Some deportees’ families say their loved ones were targeted merely for having tattoos. The Trump administration has floated even broader plans, including potentially transferring U.S. citizens to foreign prisons or launching military action against cartels in Mexico.

What’s Next?

This episode may be the first of many. Trump’s strategy of combining anti-migrant policies with foreign security partnerships suggests a broader doctrine in the making. While hailed by some as a bold stance against crime, it risks serious legal and diplomatic backlash. As the U.S. courts and Latin American governments respond, the precedent being set could redefine the boundaries of U.S. domestic and foreign policy.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇳🇪 Niger’s junta leader sworn in as president for five-year transition: Niger’s military ruler, Gen. Abdourahamane Tiani, formally enacted a charter on Wednesday confirming his role as transitional president for a five-year period. The “Refoundation Charter,” based on recommendations from a February national dialogue, outlines a 60-month transition subject to change depending on security conditions and the agenda of the newly formed Sahel States Confederation (AES)—an alliance between Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. The charter also redefines the terms for foreign military presence, requiring a public referendum for approval, except in emergencies where temporary authorisation can be granted by presidential decree. Following the 2023 coup that ousted President Mohamed Bazoum, Niger has, like its Sahelian neighbours, expelled French and European forces and aligned more closely with Russia for regional counterterrorism efforts.

2️⃣ 🇮🇶 🇾🇪 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Abdul Mahdi’s Sana’a visit signals Iraq’s quiet bid for regional mediation: Former Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi has stirred debate with a surprise visit to Ansarullah-held Sana’a, officially to attend a regional conference on Palestine. The trip, amid renewed U.S. strikes on the Houthis, is seen by some as part of Iraq’s effort to mediate between Tehran and Washington. Reports suggest Abdul Mahdi may have carried proposals from the U.S. or the U.K., potentially involving a Houthi ceasefire in exchange for control of land. While Iraqi officials tout the visit as evidence of Baghdad’s growing diplomatic weight, others dismiss it as unofficial or self-serving, linked to Abdul Mahdi’s ties to Iran and his bid to regain political relevance. Whether symbolic or substantive, the visit highlights Iraq’s emerging, if precarious, role in regional diplomacy amid escalating tensions.

3️⃣ 🇦🇪 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 UAE poised to mediate Washington-Tehran negotiations, says report: Preliminary steps toward renewed Iran–US negotiations may be underway, according to sources cited by Amwaj.media, following a recent letter from President Donald Trump to Tehran, delivered via Emirati diplomat Anwar Gargash. A senior Iranian official confirmed no decision has yet been made, noting the timing hinges on Tehran’s response. While Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reaffirmed Iran’s refusal to negotiate under pressure, he hinted that indirect talks could be considered. Trump’s choice of the UAE as mediator, rather than Oman or Qatar, has raised eyebrows, though Emirati analysts suggest mutual trust between Tehran and Abu Dhabi may make it viable. Trump reportedly proposed a two-month timeline but left details vague; ambiguity remains around whether Washington seeks full nuclear dismantlement or more flexible restrictions—an issue that could determine whether diplomacy proceeds.