Geopolitics Daily
Posts
🇮🇱 "no plans" to end Gaza operations

🇮🇱 "no plans" to end Gaza operations

and Poland's President visits Beijing

Billy Robinson
June 25, 2024

Welcome back,

Today's headlines prominently feature China, highlighting escalating tensions at the Second Thomas Shoal with the Philippines, a diplomatic visit from Warsaw, and a warning to New Zealand against joining pillar II of the US-led AUKUS Indo-Pacific security pact.

In other news, developments span the Sahel, the Red Sea, and Israel-Palestine.

Today’s main story delves into the geopolitics of Russian energy for its former European customers in the wake of the Ukraine invasion.

Let’s get into it ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇫 🇸🇩 The Sudan war’s spillover into the Central African Republic: As the war in neighbouring Sudan intensifies, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces are increasingly crossing into the Central African Republic (CAR), engaging in business and recruiting fighters from local armed groups. A recent UN report indicates that the Sudanese army is escalating air raids along the CAR border, raising the risk of spillover, and significantly worsening criminal violence in CAR’s north, particularly in Vakaga prefecture. This situation could further deteriorate the dire humanitarian conditions, disrupting trade and increasing hostility towards Sudanese refugees perceived as RSF affiliates.

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇵🇭 Affray between Chinese and Filipino vessels in Second Thomas Shoal: Chinese coast guard intercepted and seized Philippine vessels on a resupply mission in the South China Sea's Second Thomas Shoal. The incident resulted in one Filipino sailor injured and damaged vessels, leading the Philippine military to accuse China of piracy. China, however, blamed the Philippines for the confrontation and denied any misconduct by its coast guard. Crisis Group expert Georgi Engelbrecht warns that this encounter, the most serious this year, could spark skirmishes between the two nations. It also raises questions about potential U.S. involvement, as Washington reaffirmed its commitment to support Manila in case of an armed attack under the Mutual Defense Treaty.

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇳🇿 China warns New Zealand against joining AUKUS pact’s Pillar II: Li's visit to Wellington this week marks the highest-ranking Chinese official visit since 2017. China's pre-trip publicity has focused on positive aspects, minimising points of contention. The Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson highlighted the "enormous benefits" of Wellington's relationship with Beijing. The only subtle indication of potential disagreements was a pledge to discuss "international and regional issues of mutual interest," hinting that topics like New Zealand's consideration of joining "Pillar II" of the AUKUS pact—enhancing security collaboration with the US, UK, and Australia in the Indo-Pacific—might also be addressed behind closed doors.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 🇷🇺 🇰🇵 Heightened tensions between Western bloc and Russia, over Putin Pyongyang visit: The United States and its Asia-Pacific allies have vehemently condemned the newly announced military alliance between Russia and North Korea. On Monday, the US, South Korea, and Japan issued a statement expressing "grave concern" over the defence pact signed during Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent visit to North Korea. Amid Moscow's ongoing war with Ukraine, the agreement commits Russia and North Korea to mutual aid if either is attacked. The three allies stated that this alliance should alarm "anyone concerned with peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, upholding the global non-proliferation regime, and supporting the people of Ukraine."

5️⃣ 🇵🇸 Recent aid influx has not staved off famine in Gaza, say international humanitarian organisations: According to a report from a leading international authorities on famine, nearly everyone in Gaza is struggling to obtain sufficient food, with a fifth of the 2.3 million population expected to face severe starvation in the coming months. This situation persists despite months of U.S. pressure on Israel to facilitate aid, the construction of a $230 million U.S.-built pier plagued by issues, and repeated airdrops by various countries that aid agencies deem inadequate. Israel's war on Gaza has resulted in the deaths of over 37,600 Palestinians, predominantly civilians. Tel Aviv imposed a complete siege at the war's outset, gradually easing it due to Washington's pressure. The conflict has severely damaged Gaza's ability to produce its own food.

Major Story

🇪🇺 🇷🇺 THE VIRULENT EFFECTS OF EUROPE CEASING RUSSIAN ENERGY IMPORTS

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 jolted Europeans into realisation of the fragility and the precariousness of their fossil fuel security. They had believed that Europe and Russia were in a stable, mutually beneficial relationship, with Europe needing gas and Russia lacking alternative markets. This assumption proved incorrect.

Europe’s reliance on Russian energy

At the war's onset, Europe was importing various energy products from Russia, such as crude oil, uranium, coal, and liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, natural gas was Russia's most potent energy weapon, supplied by the state-controlled Gazprom through pipelines under long-term contracts. Europe depended on this gas for power generation, heating, and industrial processes.

Before the invasion, Russia was Europe’s largest natural gas supplier, providing over 40% of its imports via four main pipelines. Some countries, like Austria and Latvia, relied on Russia for more than 80% of their gas needs. Germany was the biggest customer, importing nearly twice the volume of the next largest importer, Italy. The Economist wrote in May 2022, "Oil and gas combined account for 60% of primary energy, and Russia has long been the biggest supplier of both. On the eve of the war in Ukraine, it provided a third of Germany’s oil, around half its coal imports, and more than half its gas."

Russia’s decision to cut off gas supplies to Europe in May 2022 was particularly damaging, as replacing such a significant volume was challenging. Other regional pipeline gas sources, such as the North Sea, were dwindling, and critical sectors like the chemical industry relied heavily on gas. While LNG could serve as a substitute, it requires specialised infrastructure, and global LNG markets were already tight, with much of the supply directed to Asia.

Brookings Institute argues that even before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin began manipulating Europe's reliance on Russian oil and gas through slowed supplies and depleted storage facilities. After Russia halted major gas pipelines to Germany and Central Europe, a resulting supply shock and price surge threatened widespread socio-economic disruptions and political paralysis across the continent.

The path ahead

Despite mixed outcomes from the G-7's cap on Russian oil prices, European countries nearly eliminated their dependence on Russian gas by reducing demand and increasing LNG use. This shift, termed a "massive adaptation" by experts, has proven a geopolitical disaster for Russia, unable to redirect European gas to Asia as it can with oil. Natural gas prices have since stabilised.

However, the process of decoupling and adaptation varies widely among European states, impacting energy-intensive industries and sparking political tensions. Europe's energy transition remains incomplete and vulnerable to future shocks like threats to remaining Russian gas importers or shifts in global LNG markets.

Currently, Europe relies heavily on imported gas, diversified but more costly with increased LNG reliance. Sustaining industrial competitiveness amid high LNG prices and hefty clean energy subsidies elsewhere presents a challenge. While full energy autonomy is unfeasible, the lessons from 2022-2024 underscore the need to enhance supply security, ensure cross-border energy flows, and accelerate investments in renewable energy.

Promotion

If you love our stuff we know you’ll love Ground News! Their platform provides around the clock coverage of global news from all political perspectives.

We can’t recommend their app enough!

(p.s. as we’ve partnered with them - by signing up you’ll be helping to grow this newsletter too! 🤫)

Get Ground News by clicking here ⤵️

Ground News App

Compare Today’s Top News Headlines from Multiple Perspectives: Local, Foreign, National; Left to Right. See What the Other Side Sees. Be Well Informed.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Netanyahu announces 'no plans' to end operations in Gaza, while tanks advance on formerly designated safe zone: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that while the intense fighting in Gaza is nearing its end, the war will continue until Hamas no longer controls the enclave. He clarified that even a ceasefire would not signify the war's conclusion and did not provide a timeline for the current phase's end. Netanyahu also stated that Israel would indefinitely occupy Gaza, rejecting the possibility of the Palestinian Authority taking control. These remarks came as Israeli tanks advanced to the edge of al-Mawasi's tent camp near Rafah, days after an Israeli strike killed at least 25 people in an area previously designated as a "humanitarian safe zone" by Tel Aviv.

2️⃣ 🇵🇱 🇨🇳 Poland’s President visits Beijing: Polish President Andrzej Duda met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing on Monday to discuss Ukraine, peace, and expanding bilateral trade. This visit brought the head of a NATO member state to China, which has supported Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Duda expressed Poland's interest in closer commercial ties with China, particularly through Xi’s "Belt and Road Initiative," which aims to build transport connections and infrastructure between China, Europe, Southeast Asia, and other regions. This initiative addresses China's manufacturing overcapacity, seeks foreign markets, and aims to expand Beijing’s political and economic influence in response to the U.S.-led liberal international order.

3️⃣ 🇾🇪 Red Sea drone attack linked to Yemeni Houthi group: Officials reported a potential attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Monday targeting a ship farther from their usual assault locations in the Gulf of Aden, suggesting a possible escalation by the group. The attack coincided with the return of the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower after an eight-month deployment leading the U.S. response to Houthi attacks. These assaults have significantly disrupted shipping on a route vital to Asian, Middle Eastern, and European markets. The Houthis assert that their attacks focus on vessels associated with Israel, the United States, or Britain. However, many targeted ships have little to no connection to the Israel-Hamas war, including those headed to Iran.