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📰 North Korea warns South

📰 North Korea warns South

and Japan snap election chaos

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
October 29, 2024

Hello,

Tensions escalate in East Asia as North Korea issues a stark warning of a "merciless offensive" against South Korea following allegations of drone incursions into its airspace. Meanwhile, Japan's ruling party suffers its worst electoral defeat in 15 years in a weekend snap election.

In the Middle East, refugees face new hardships after Israeli airstrikes destroy border infrastructure between Lebanon and Syria. Additionally, Algeria and Egypt reaffirm a policy of non-interference in the conflicts in Libya and Sudan.

Today’s headline story focuses on the Rapid Support Forces' (RSF) brutal campaign in Sudan’s Gezira region and its wider political ramifications.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 🇺🇳 Iran foreign minister calls for UN security council meeting after Israeli strikes: Iran’s leadership is weighing its response to Israeli airstrikes over the weekend, while calling for an urgent UNSC meeting. President Masoud Pezeshkian clarified that although Iran does not seek war, it will defend itself against aggression, hinting at possible retaliation without specifying military actions. The attacks, limited in scope, have sparked internal debate in Iran about the necessity of a stronger response. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei emphasised that Iran's power must be demonstrated, but did not indicate immediate military plans. Meanwhile, Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, condemned the strikes as destabilising, reserving Iran's right to a "legal and legitimate" response. Israel, which carried out the airstrikes in retaliation for recent missile attacks, claims to have effectively targeted key defence systems. Tensions remain high amid fears of escalating regional conflict.

2️⃣ 🇰🇵 🇰🇷 North Korea warns of ‘merciless offensive’ against South Korea: North Korea has accused South Korea of sending unmanned drones into its airspace on three occasions, allegations that South Korea's military denies. According to North Korean state media, the Ministry of Defense recovered a crashed "enemy drone" and examined its control module, flight plan, and log. The analysis, reported by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), allegedly revealed the drone's route originating from South Korea’s Baengnyeong Island, crossing the western sea, and landing in Pyongyang. Baengnyeong Island, located near the western maritime border, is geographically closer to Pyongyang than Seoul. A spokesperson for North Korea’s Ministry of National Defence warned of severe consequences if such incursions happen again, threatening a "merciless offensive" that would erase the South. While South Korea’s Defence Minister initially refuted the claims, the Joint Chiefs of Staff later stated they could not confirm the accuracy of North Korea’s allegations.

3️⃣ 🇪🇬 🇩🇿 🇱🇾 🇸🇩 Libya, Sudan 'non-interference’ policy adopted by Algeria, Egypt: Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi and Algeria’s President Abdelmadjid Tebboune firmly opposed foreign intervention in Sudan and Libya, emphasising support for political solutions. In a joint press conference at Cairo’s Ittihadiya Palace, Al-Sisi called for establishing a transitional government in Sudan to pave the way for elections and stabilise the country. He similarly advocated for Libya to form a government capable of organising elections, leading to legitimate leadership. Al-Sisi affirmed Egypt’s readiness to collaborate with all parties to achieve unity and stability in Libya. Both leaders also urged an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon amid ongoing tensions. The statements underscored Egypt and Algeria’s commitment to regional sovereignty and diplomatic efforts over foreign interference.

4️⃣ 🇯🇵 Japan’s snap election delivers ruling party’s worst result in 15 years: Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has vowed to remain in office despite a major electoral setback in the snap election he initiated. Following a significant defeat, the ruling coalition, led by Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), lost its parliamentary majority. Ishiba, who assumed office on October 1, called the election to consolidate support, but voter dissatisfaction over a funding scandal saw the LDP’s seats drop from 259 to 191 in the 465-member lower house. Its coalition partner, Komeito, secured 24 seats. This marks the worst electoral outcome for the ruling coalition in 15 years, according to NHK. With a divided opposition led by Yoshihiko Noda’s Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP)—now holding 148 seats—Ishiba is expected to lead a minority government. A special parliamentary session is scheduled for November 11 to select the next prime minister amid ongoing coalition negotiations.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 G7 enforces price cap on Russia exports: G7 finance ministers have pledged to intensify measures to block Russia from circumventing sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine. Following a meeting in Washington, the group stated its commitment to enforcing oil price caps, hinting at future actions without specifying details. In December 2022, the G7, along with the EU and Australia, agreed on a price ceiling to limit Russia’s oil revenues while avoiding spikes in global oil prices. However, countries like China continue to import Russian crude beyond this cap. The G7 also vowed to crack down on Russia’s use of "shadow tankers"—unregistered vessels transporting oil illicitly. They aim to prevent financial institutions from facilitating these sanctions breaches. Additionally, the G7 finalised a $50 billion loan to Ukraine, to be repaid using interest accrued from frozen Russian assets.

Major Story

🇸🇩 RAPID SUPPORT FORCES KILL OVER 120 IN GEZIRA STATE

Background

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) unleashed a deadly multi-day assault in Gezira, east-central Sudan, killing over 120 people, the UN and Sudanese Doctors’ Union reported. This brutal campaign between October 20-25 targeted towns and villages, resulting in mass shootings, looting, and sexual violence against women and girls. The RSF’s attacks come after military gains by the Sudanese army, which recently reclaimed territories in Gezira and Sinnar. The conflict, ongoing since April 2023, has displaced millions, devastated livelihoods, and brought Sudan to the edge of famine.

Parallels to Darfur Atrocities

UN officials condemned the violence as reminiscent of the Darfur genocide of the early 2000s. The RSF, originally formed from the Janjaweed militias mobilized under former President Omar al-Bashir, continues a legacy of war crimes, including rape and ethnic cleansing. The RSF's retaliation in Gezira follows the defection of top commander Abu Aqlah Keikel to the military, which resulted in RSF forces targeting areas perceived as loyal to him.

Political and Regional Implications

In Darfur, where RSF atrocities have been most severe, political motives intertwine with violence. The Sudan Liberation Movement/Army (SLM/A) led by Minni Minawi is increasingly aligned with secessionist ambitions. Regionally, Sudan's spiralling crisis has prompted discussions between Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Algeria’s President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, signalling potential regional involvement in addressing Sudan’s escalating insecurity. However, recent UN statements indicated that deploying peacekeepers remains too dangerous, underlining the international community’s limited capacity to intervene directly amidst widespread violence.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇸🇾 🇮🇱 Refugees trapped after Lebanon-Syria border infrastructure destroyed: Refugees fleeing Lebanon crossed a makeshift bridge into Syria on Sunday in the Qusair area of Homs province after an Israeli airstrike rendered the official border crossing unusable. With just three operational crossings remaining along the 375-kilometre border, the situation has grown dire. An earlier Israeli strike in September shut down the Matraba crossing, followed by a hit on Masnaa, the main crossing, which was also disabled. On Friday, the Jousieh crossing was targeted. Israel claims that Hizbollah uses these routes to transport weapons from Syria to Lebanon. However, humanitarian officials warn that the closures have exacerbated Lebanon’s humanitarian crisis, blocking essential supply routes and restricting safe passage for those fleeing. Ghossoun Mubarak, who escaped the bombardment in Baalbek with her children, described the situation as a "tragedy" after crossing the makeshift bridge.