Geopolitics Daily
Posts
📰 North Korean troops in Ukraine

📰 North Korean troops in Ukraine

and Canada expels Indian diplomats

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
October 15, 2024

Hello,

Today's update covers key conflict zone developments: over 20 civilians have been killed by an Israeli airstrike in northern Lebanon, North Korean troops are reportedly fighting alongside Russia in Ukraine, and U.S. airstrikes have targeted militant sites in Syria.

The lead story examines Iran’s deteriorating deterrence against Israel, which may drive Tehran to consider nuclear options. As Iran's conventional military capabilities weaken, the risk of nuclear escalation grows, potentially reshaping the regional security landscape.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇨🇦 India-Canada diplomatic dispute reignites: The longstanding diplomatic rift between India and Canada has flared up again, with both nations announcing the expulsion of diplomats over accusations of Indian government agents threatening Canadian safety. The latest escalation began on Monday, when India’s Ministry of External Affairs disclosed that it had received a communication from Canada identifying Indian diplomats as “persons of interest” in a Canadian investigation. Relations worsened last year after Canada launched an inquiry into possible links between Indian agents and the murder of Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar on the country’s west coast. India has consistently denied involvement, calling the allegations “preposterous” and stating that it would pull its diplomats from Canada. In response, Canada announced the expulsion of six Indian diplomats, citing evidence from federal police that implicated Indian agents in activities jeopardising public safety.

2️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇺🇸 Syrian militant sites targeted by U.S. airstrikes: U.S. forces launched airstrikes targeting several Islamic State sites in Syria, aiming to disrupt the group's ability to coordinate and execute attacks, according to U.S. Central Command. The U.S. military maintains around 900 troops in Syria as part of the coalition formed in 2014 to combat Islamic State, which once controlled large territories in Iraq and Syria. Amid the ongoing regional instability, linked to recent escalations in the Israel-Hamas conflict, coalition forces have faced repeated drone and rocket attacks by militant factions in Syria and Iraq. In a related development, U.S. forces conducted airstrikes last month, killing 37 fighters linked to ISIS and Al-Qaeda affiliates. The military stated that preliminary damage assessments did not report any civilian casualties.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 Pentagon to deploy troops and THAAD air defence system to Israel: The U.S. deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and around 100 soldiers to Israel is expected to add significant strain to the Army’s air defence capabilities and could delay modernization efforts, Army officials said Monday. The deployment, ordered by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, reflects growing global demand for missile defence systems amid ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, as well as the Middle East. U.S. Army Secretary Christine Wormuth highlighted the intense operational tempo faced by air defence forces, noting they are currently the most overburdened segment of the Army. She emphasised the importance of disciplined resource management to help Secretary Austin assess the impact on the forces and plan future deployments accordingly.

4️⃣ 🇰🇵 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 North Korean troops fighting for Russia in Ukraine, says Kyiv: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has raised concerns over a deepening alliance between Russia and North Korea, highlighting that it's no longer just about weapon transfers but also the movement of North Korean personnel to aid Russian forces. Since Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine, ties between Moscow and Pyongyang have strengthened, including a defence agreement signed in June during President Putin's first visit to North Korea in 25 years. Following reports of North Korean soldiers dying in Russian-occupied Donetsk, South Korea's Defense Minister suggested that North Korean troops might be fighting alongside Russia in Ukraine. In his Sunday address, Zelenskyy reiterated the need for Ukraine's allies to provide more long-range weaponry to counter Russian advances, stressing that "true peace can only be achieved through strength." This week, Ukraine's future support is a focus for EU meetings in Luxembourg and Brussels, where funding and military aid will be discussed.

5️⃣ 🇪🇸 🇮🇱 Spanish PM urges suspension of arms sales to Israel: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has called on the global community to "immediately suspend" arms shipments to Israel, which continues military operations in both Gaza and Lebanon. Speaking at the World In Progress forum in Barcelona, Sánchez urged, "Without weapons, there is no war," emphasising that Spain had already halted arms exports to Israel. He criticised the policies of the Netanyahu government, claiming they aimed to undermine a two-state solution and eliminate any alternative political resolutions. Sánchez stressed that the creation of two states remains the only viable path forward. He called for an end to the ongoing Middle East conflict and urged the international community to "wake up" and act decisively. French President Emmanuel Macron similarly advocated for a suspension of arms deliveries to Israel, with the goal of de-escalating the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon.

Major Story

🇮🇷 🇮🇱 IRAN, ISRAEL, AND THE DEATH OF CONVENTIONAL DETERRENCE

Background

On October 1, Iran launched 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, marking its second major direct strike within six months, known as Operation True Promise 2. This aggressive move aimed not just at retaliation but at reasserting Iran's waning deterrence in a region where its influence is increasingly under pressure from Israeli military actions. The strike highlighted Iran’s struggle to maintain its defence posture as conventional capabilities erode, raising the stakes for potential nuclear escalation.

Mounting Pressures on Iran’s Regional Strategy

Iran's strategy in the Middle East has relied heavily on a vast missile arsenal and a network of regional allies, primarily Hizbollah, to extend its influence without direct confrontation. By supporting armed groups, Iran sought to deter adversaries like Israel from threatening its interests. However, this approach has faced significant setbacks over the past year. Israel's intensified strikes, including targeted assassinations of key figures like Hizbollah's Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas' Ismail Haniyeh, have diminished the effectiveness of Iran's allies, temporarily subduing Hizbollah.

Calculated Risks Behind Operation True Promise 2

Facing increasing losses, Iran opted for the missile strike to signal its resolve and counter Israel's ongoing offensive against its regional network. The decision reflects a recognition that confrontation may be inevitable, given Israel's persistent covert operations targeting Iranian interests. Iran likely hoped the attack would buy time for its proxies to regroup and force Israel to reconsider its approach. While the strike levelled significant damage on a number of airstrips and strategic targets, the risks were substantial, and has left Iran vulnerable to retaliation.

Shifting Toward the Nuclear Option?

With its missile and proxy-based deterrence weakening, Iran may increasingly view its nuclear program as a counterbalance to the power imbalance. As a nuclear threshold state, Tehran could consider developing nuclear weapons to deter future aggression. Although pursuing this path is risky, especially with the potential for so-called ‘preemptive’ strikes by Israel or the U.S., even signalling a nuclear shift could influence Israel's calculations.

Iran faces tough choices amid volatile geopolitics. Further escalation risks provoking devastating responses, while restraint could concede regional dominance to Israel. The future of Iran’s strategy hinges on its ability to adapt and find new means of projecting power in a challenging environment.

Promotion

Please subscribe to our YouTube channel too ⤵️

Horizon Geopolitics

Geopolitics explained 🌍

www.youtube.com/@HorizonGeopolitics

Other News

1️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 More than 20 people killed in Israeli strike in North Lebanon, school shelter bombed in Gaza: An Israeli airstrike on Monday struck the northern Lebanese town of Aitou, a Christian Maronite village near Tripoli, killing 21 people, according to the Lebanese Red Cross. The bombing targeted an apartment building housing families displaced by the ongoing conflict, prompting Hezbollah to retaliate with rocket fire towards Tel Aviv. Aitou is far from Hezbollah’s traditional strongholds, adding to concerns about the spread of hostilities. In Gaza, Israeli strikes over the past day resulted in heavy casualties, including 20 people killed in a bombing at a school used as a shelter and five children killed in a drone attack in al-Shati camp. Rights groups accuse Israel of a campaign to forcibly expel northern Gaza’s population. Israel has faced criticism for attacks on UN peacekeepers in Lebanon, with five personnel injured recently. Despite calls for withdrawal, UN peacekeeping forces will remain in place.