Geopolitics Daily
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📰 Norway considers EU

📰 Norway considers EU

and Sudan's RSF forms parallel government

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
April 17, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Today, China leads global headlines, as Beijing seeks closer ties with ASEAN, while Trump’s tariff strategy is inadvertently benefiting China more than the U.S. In Somalia, Puntland security forces continue to make significant gains against Islamic State cells entrenched in the northeast.

Our lead story examines Norway’s evolving strategic calculus as it reconsiders EU membership. With the EU playing an increasingly central role in shaping European security, Oslo may be edging closer to Brussels than ever before.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 🇴🇲 Iran shifts US nuclear talks back to Muscat, sidelining Europe over trust concerns: Preliminary Iran-US talks, mediated by Oman, initially aimed to relocate from Muscat to Europe for logistical reasons, with Italy eventually chosen after Tehran rejected London, Paris, and Berlin (capitals of the E3). Rome was confirmed as the new venue, but Tehran later announced a return to Muscat due to "complications," including the simultaneous presence of US Vice President JD Vance in Italy. Iran’s preference for Oman over the E3 underscores frustration with Europe’s failure to shield the 2015 nuclear deal from US pressure. While sidelined from direct mediation, the E3 remains pivotal due to the looming expiration of the JCPOA’s snapback clause, which could affect Iran’s future in the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇬🇧 🇦🇪 UK’s Sudan conference flops as RSF announce parallel government: The UK-led conference on Sudan’s conflict ended in disarray after a proposal to form a ceasefire contact group collapsed amid divisions between Arab states. Criticism mounted over the UK’s exclusion of Sudan’s government and civil society, despite inviting countries like the UAE—accused of backing the RSF, which continued attacks in Darfur during the talks. As RSF leader Hemeti declared a rival government mid-conference, human rights groups condemned the summit as ineffective, lacking concrete measures for civilian protection. The event closed without consensus, failing to address atrocities or deliver meaningful progress towards peace in what the UN deems the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇸🇾 🇱🇧 🇵🇸 Israeli troops to indefinitely remain in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza says defence minister Katz: Israel has announced its forces will indefinitely remain in parts of Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, tightening its hold on several occupied zones. Defence Minister Israel Katz confirmed the military will not withdraw from areas it has seized, instead turning them into buffer zones, including 30% of Gaza. While Israel continues its offensive, with over 1,200 targets struck since mid-March, humanitarian aid remains blocked—a violation of international law, which Katz describes as strategic pressure on Hamas. Meanwhile, Israel’s continued presence in southern Lebanon and Syria elicits international concern, with Lebanon’s president citing it as a key obstacle to the full implementation of the ceasefire agreement. Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Gaza continue to inflict enormous civilian casualties.

4️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 🇺🇬 🇧🇮 UN security council convenes for talks on the Great Lakes region: The UN Security Council hosted an open briefing followed by closed consultations on the situation in the Great Lakes region, focusing on the deteriorating security in eastern DRC. UN Special Envoy Huang Xia presented the Secretary-General’s latest report on the Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework, while UNICEF chief Catherine Russell will address child rights violations. Council members are also expected to discuss M23’s advances, the involvement of other armed groups, and regional tensions involving Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda. Delegates may also examine efforts to revitalise the PSC Framework and the DRC’s recent offer of mineral access to the U.S. in exchange for support against M23 rebels.

5️⃣🇨🇳 🇺🇸 Beijing stands to benefit from Trump’s tariffs, not Washington: Since Xi Jinping took office in 2012, his leadership has steered China away from the diplomatic pragmatism that once underpinned its rise. Aggressive territorial assertions, military expansion, and domestic crackdowns have reshaped China’s global image. Meanwhile, President Trump’s erratic leadership has revealed that democratic systems are not immune to the perils of over-centralised power. His tariff war with China—most recently raising duties to 145%—has ironically bolstered Beijing’s narrative while alienating allies and weakening U.S. global standing. As China cultivates ties with Europe and its neighbours, Washington’s missteps risk making it appear less stable than the rival it seeks to contain.

Major Story

🇳🇴 🇪🇺 NORWAY’S EU DEBATE: FROM STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP TO POTENTIAL MEMBERSHIP

Much like Finland and Sweden’s reassessment of their NATO stance following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Norway is now re-evaluating its position on the European Union. While long dependent on NATO and close ties with the U.S. for security, shifting geopolitical dynamics and the erosion of American guarantees have exposed the limitations of this reliance. Denmark’s experience—being both a NATO and EU member, yet still subject to threats from former U.S. President Trump—highlights this vulnerability.

Integration Without Influence

Norway participates in the EU’s single market and aligns with EU foreign policy, yet lacks decision-making power. This arrangement proved unsustainable in January 2025 when Norway’s government collapsed over EU energy rules. Rising public support for membership reflects growing dissatisfaction with this limited partnership.

A Strategic Pivot Towards Brussels

With the U.S. reassessing its role in Europe and the EU becoming increasingly central to regional security, Norway faces a pivotal choice. As power disperses within the EU and smaller states play a larger role, Norway—Europe’s largest energy supplier—could bring significant weight to policy-making, writes Chatham House. By formally joining the EU, Norway would not only safeguard its interests but also help shape the future of a more balanced, multipolar European order.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇲🇾 Beijing pursues rapport with ASEAN: Chinese President Xi Jinping has begun a state visit to Malaysia, meeting Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim as part of a broader Southeast Asia tour aimed at strengthening regional ties amid escalating tensions with the United States. During a welcome ceremony at Malaysia’s national palace, Xi reaffirmed the close relationship between the two countries and expressed China’s desire to deepen cooperation with the ASEAN bloc, enhance Global South unity, and promote regional stability. His visit follows a stop in Vietnam and precedes a final leg in Cambodia. The talks with Malaysia come as both nations navigate the fallout of U.S. tariff hikes, with Xi positioning China as a reliable partner advocating free trade and resisting unilateralism.

2️⃣ 🇸🇴 Puntland security forces continue to make ground against Islamic State Somalia cells: In February 2025, Puntland's regional forces reclaimed the mountain town of Sheebaab from the Islamic State in Somalia (ISS), part of Operation Hilaac—a counterterror campaign launched in late 2024—reflecting the autonomous region's success in counter-terror security operations. Despite limited federal success against al-Shabaab, Puntland has united its forces and, with support from the U.S. and UAE, pushed back ISS, inflicting heavy losses. The UAE-backed Puntland Maritime Police Force and other regional units have cleared key areas, including Qandala. However, despite these gains, ISS remains active, and concerns persist over foreign dependence and the long-term risks of externally funded elite units.