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📰 Oil prices fall

📰 Oil prices fall

and Myanmar’s ceasefire falters

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
April 09, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Today, Trump threatens 50% tariffs on China, oil prices plunge to a four-year low, and fears mount that the U.S.-China trade war could tip the global economy into recession.

Elsewhere, “Signalgate” raises serious questions about a possible U.S. war crime, while our lead story explores the fragile diplomatic efforts to end Sudan’s brutal civil war as it enters its third year.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇲🇲 Myanmar’s junta exploits crisis, undermines ceasefire efforts: Following the devastating 7.7 magnitude earthquake on March 28, Myanmar’s opposition groups swiftly paused hostilities to enable aid access. The National Unity Government and the Three Brotherhood Alliance both declared ceasefires. But the military continued attacks, launching airstrikes just hours after the quake struck. Under mounting international pressure, it reluctantly announced a ceasefire on April 2—only to resume operations in Kachin the next day. This fits a long pattern: Myanmar’s junta has a history of manipulating crises for political gain. In 2008, it held a rigged referendum days after Cyclone Nargis. Now, the military may use the quake as cover to push for sham elections in December, aiming to rehabilitate its image while continuing to crush opposition.

2️⃣ 🇩🇿 🇲🇱 Sahel alliance recalls ambassadors from Algeria after Malian drone incident: The military governments of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—members of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—have withdrawn their ambassadors from Algeria following the downing of a Malian drone near the shared border. AES condemned Algeria’s actions as a violation of international law and accused it of jeopardising long-standing ties. Mali rejected claims that the drone entered Algerian airspace and accused Algiers of backing terrorism. While Algeria has voiced concern over Mali’s use of drones and Russian mercenaries near its frontier, analysts say this latest diplomatic rift is unlikely to escalate militarily. The incident further deepens tensions between the Sahel trio and Algeria, a former mediator in Mali’s conflicts, as both sides recalibrate regional alliances.

3️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Iran’s foreign minister says he will have indirect nuclear talks with U.S. envoy: On April 7, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that direct negotiations with Iran over its nuclear programme were underway, announcing a major meeting for the coming Saturday. Trump dismissed the idea that discussions were occurring via intermediaries, stressing the talks were face-to-face. However, Iranian officials rejected claims of direct contact, confirming instead that indirect discussions would occur through Oman’s mediation. Tehran’s foreign minister and state media acknowledged Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi’s role in facilitating dialogue, but questioned Washington’s intentions given Trump’s history of threats and sanctions. Despite these tensions, Iran has left the door open to dialogue if the U.S. demonstrates sincerity, especially regarding sanctions relief and recognition of Iran’s right to nuclear development under international oversight.

4️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇪🇬 🇯🇴 🇫🇷 Hamas must have no role in Gaza’s postwar governance, says Egypt, Jordan, France: During a summit in Cairo on Monday, the leaders of France, Egypt, and Jordan jointly declared that the Palestinian Authority (PA) should govern Gaza once the war ends. French President Emmanuel Macron, alongside Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Jordan’s King Abdullah II, stated that Hamas must play no role in Gaza’s future administration. They called for a renewed ceasefire and endorsed an Arab League-backed reconstruction plan as an alternative to U.S. proposals involving Gazan displacement. The leaders emphasised that a strengthened PA must oversee law, order, and security in all Palestinian territories. Macron also initiated a call with Donald Trump, Sisi, and Abdullah to discuss next steps.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Trump threatens 50% tariffs on China: Donald Trump has warned that Chinese imports could face an additional 50% tariff if Beijing does not reverse its recently announced 34% counter-tariff on American goods. This move would bring the total levy on some Chinese products to 104%, following previous rounds of tariffs introduced in March and on “Liberation Day” last week. Speaking at the White House, Trump dismissed the idea of delaying new tariffs for negotiations, instead asserting that permanent tariffs may be part of securing “fair deals.” As global markets continued to slide—Hong Kong’s Hang Seng falling over 13%—Trump’s stance triggered widespread concerns over an escalating trade war, with the EU and Japan preparing for talks and potential retaliation. Beijing, meanwhile, denounced Washington’s actions as economic coercion and protectionism.

Major Story

🇸🇩 CAN DIPLOMACY HALT SUDAN’S SLIDE TOWARD FRAGMENTATION?

Two years into Sudan’s civil war, the Sudanese army has regained Khartoum from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), marking a major shift in the conflict. The RSF, which had controlled the capital since 2023, is now retreating westward, but shows no intention of conceding. Rather than leveraging its victory to pursue peace, the army is pushing west to consolidate power, while the RSF expands offensives into new areas, forming alliances with long-time rebels like SPLM-North. These moves risk further fracturing the country and igniting wider regional instability in Chad and South Sudan.

Regional Rivalries and Foreign Fuelling

The war’s trajectory is shaped not only by internal dynamics but by competing regional agendas. The army is supported by Egypt and Saudi Arabia, while the RSF relies heavily on backing from the UAE. Both factions receive advanced weaponry, including drones, from foreign patrons. Without coordinated external pressure to de-escalate, the conflict may spiral into a multi-front proxy war—destabilising a Red Sea region already strained by conflict in Yemen and unrest in Ethiopia and South Sudan.

Paths to De-escalation

Peace will require concerted regional and international diplomacy. Cairo and Riyadh must press Sudanese army chief Burhan to pivot from military escalation to negotiation. Simultaneously, Abu Dhabi should engage in direct talks with the army to reduce RSF dependence and open space for ceasefire talks. Egypt and the African Union must also advance dialogue with civilian groups to chart a viable postwar future. A unified national government remains the only route to reunification.

Global Stakes

The West, particularly the U.S. and UK, must re-engage. Washington’s leverage with Gulf allies remains critical, and London’s upcoming conference on Sudan could galvanise broader coordination. Without urgent diplomatic alignment, Sudan risks irreversible fragmentation—and its neighbours, deeper instability.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇳🇬 52 people killed in series of attacks in Plateau state, Nigeria: At least 52 people have been killed and nearly 2,000 displaced following a series of attacks across six villages in Nigeria’s northern Plateau state, the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) confirmed. The violence, which occurred in Bokkos district, marks the worst bloodshed since December 2023, when over 100 people were killed in the same region. The cause of the latest attacks remains unclear, though Plateau’s history of deadly clashes between farmers and herders has long been exacerbated by ethno-religious tensions, land disputes, and climate-related pressures. President Bola Tinubu has ordered security forces to pursue the perpetrators, as authorities set up three displacement camps and warn that the security situation remains volatile.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Oil prices fall to 4-year low, U.S.-China trade war threatens recession: Global markets plunged on Wednesday, with oil prices dropping to a four-year low and Asian stocks extending Wall Street’s losses amid confirmation that the U.S. would impose 104% tariffs on Chinese goods. The S&P 500 reversed sharply, losing $5.8 trillion in value over four days—the steepest drop since its inception. Investor panic triggered a flight to safe-haven currencies, while Fed rate cut expectations surged to 115 basis points. Meanwhile, China’s yuan hit a record low, and analysts warned the escalating U.S.-China trade war could trigger a global recession, with the $400 billion tariff bill acting as a massive tax on American households and businesses.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇾🇪 ‘Signalgate’ may be evidence of a U.S. war crime: Last week, the Pentagon’s inspector general launched an investigation into Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s use of the Signal app to coordinate sensitive airstrike plans targeting Yemen’s Houthi group. Triggered by a bipartisan Senate request, the probe highlights widespread concern over national security breaches and the risk posed to U.S. military personnel. More troubling, however, is what the chat messages revealed: senior officials approving a strike on a Yemeni apartment block that killed 53 civilians in pursuit of a single commander. Amnesty International argues this decision may violate international law—raising questions not only about procedure, but also about legality, accountability, and moral responsibility.