Geopolitics Daily
Posts
📰 Oil prices surge

📰 Oil prices surge

and Vietnam confronts China

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
October 04, 2024

Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

President Joe Biden revealed that his administration is in discussions regarding potential Israeli retaliation on Iran’s oil industry after Tuesday’s ballistic missile attack.

In the Caribbean and Latin America, the U.S. is set to support Jamaica's new anti-gun trafficking initiative, while in Mexico, six migrants were killed by soldiers at the Guatemalan border—an incident President Sheinbaum called "deplorable."

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇮🇷 Washington ‘discusses’ possible Israeli plans to attack Iran’s oil infrastructure: Joe Biden stated that his administration has been "discussing" possible Israeli plans to retaliate against Iran's oil industry following Iran's ballistic missile attack on Tuesday. However, Biden’s comments did not clarify if these discussions were internal or involved direct communication with Israel, nor did he express a clear stance on such an attack. “We don’t ‘allow’ Israel—we advise them," Biden told reporters on Thursday, adding that "nothing is going to happen today." His remarks—amid heightened tensions in the Middle East—led to a spike in global oil prices, potentially impacting Vice President Kamala Harris's presidential campaign, with the election just over a month away. Satellite images published Thursday revealed damage at Israel's Nevatim airbase, one of the targets in the Iranian missile salvo, despite most being intercepted.

2️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇲🇺 UK gives Chagos Islands to Mauritius after 50 year sovereignty dispute: A deal to transfer the Indian Ocean archipelago to Mauritius has been reached. Diego Garcia, a critical military base for the UK and US, will remain under their jurisdiction for at least 99 more years under the agreement. The UK government stated that the treaty aims to "address wrongs of the past" and support the welfare of the Chagossians, the islands' native people. US President Joe Biden welcomed the deal as "mutually beneficial," and Secretary of State Antony Blinken praised it as a "win for diplomacy." However, some UK Conservative figures, including former security minister Tom Tugendhat, criticised the decision as a "shameful retreat" that compromises security. Concerns have also been raised that a future Mauritian government may allow China, which has significant investments in the country, to take control of the base.

3️⃣ 🇲🇽 🇬🇹 Mexican soldiers kill 6 migrants on Guatemalan border: Mexican soldiers opened fire on a truck carrying migrants from various countries, killing six people from Egypt, Peru, and Honduras. President Claudia Sheinbaum condemned the incident as "deplorable" on Thursday. Among the victims, three were from Egypt, one from Peru, and one from Honduras, while the sixth has yet to be identified, with at least one possibly a minor. Ten other migrants were injured, though their conditions remain undisclosed. Peru's Foreign Ministry confirmed one of the deceased was Peruvian and called for an urgent investigation. The soldiers responsible for the shooting, which occurred on Sheinbaum's first day in office, have been handed over to civilian prosecutors. It marks the worst migrant-related killing by Mexican authorities since 2021. Sheinbaum vowed the incident would be thoroughly investigated and emphasised that "a situation like this cannot be repeated."

4️⃣ 🇻🇳 🇨🇳 Vietnam condemns ‘brutal behaviour of Chinese law enforcement’ in South China Sea: Vietnam lodged a formal protest on Wednesday against China, condemning the "suppression, injuring, and seizure of property" of its fishermen by Chinese law enforcement in the contested South China Sea. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Pham Thu Hang expressed Vietnam's "extreme concern, discontent, and strong opposition" to what she called Beijing's "brutal treatment" of Vietnamese fishermen. The protest followed an incident on Sunday involving a Vietnamese vessel near the disputed Hoang Sa (Paracel) Islands, where four of the 10 crew members were injured and required hospitalisation. Both Vietnam and China, single-party communist nations, claim sovereignty over these waters and islands. Pham accused China of violating Vietnam's sovereignty, international law, and the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, urging China to respect Vietnam’s territorial rights and investigate the incident to prevent future occurrences.

5️⃣ 🇧🇩 Bangladesh enacts comprehensive diplomatic reshuffle: Bangladesh has recalled five ambassadors, including its envoy to India, as part of a diplomatic shakeup by the interim government, foreign ministry officials confirmed on Thursday. This reshuffle follows the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on August 5, after weeks of violent protests led to her resignation and flight to India. The interim government, now headed by Nobel Peace laureate Muhammad Yunus, is clearing out appointees from the previous administration. Envoys from Brussels, Canberra, Lisbon, New Delhi, and the UN mission in New York have been ordered to return to Dhaka immediately. A government official, speaking anonymously, suggested the recall is likely due to their appointments under Hasina’s tenure, as the new leadership seeks to distance itself from the former administration.

Major Story

Oil prices surged to their highest levels in over a month following comments from U.S. President Joe Biden about potential Israeli retaliatory strikes against Iran's oil infrastructure. Brent crude rose by over 5%, settling at $77.62 per barrel, after Biden suggested that a response to Iran’s recent missile attack on Israel was under discussion. When asked directly if the U.S. would back Israel targeting Iranian oil facilities, Biden’s ambiguous response left room for speculation, driving further market anxiety.

Behind the scenes, U.S. officials have been in constant communication with their Israeli counterparts, with both sides keen to avoid a broader Middle Eastern escalation. According to a senior U.S. official, Israel wants to send a clear message to Iran while containing the conflict's scope. While no final decisions have been made by Israel, Biden and his Western allies have publicly voiced opposition to strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Instead, focus has shifted toward potential military targets and energy infrastructure.

The G7 weighed in with a call for restraint, warning of the dangers of uncontrollable escalation in the Middle East. While Israel’s next move remains uncertain, U.S. officials are reportedly growing concerned about Washington’s diminishing influence over Israeli decision-making. European diplomats have also expressed frustration, admitting that Israel might not adhere to their requests to limit its retaliation.

Promotion

Please subscribe to our YouTube channel too ⤵️

Horizon Geopolitics

Geopolitics explained 🌍

www.youtube.com/@HorizonGeopolitics

Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇯🇲 US to assist Jamaica in gun trafficking prevention programme: New York Attorney General Letitia James—leading a coalition of 12 attorneys general—has urged the U.S. Congress to take action against gun trafficking from the United States to the Caribbean. In a letter, the group highlighted how U.S.-sourced firearms are contributing to rising gun violence in the Caribbean, where many Americans have family ties. The coalition proposed several steps for Congress, including increasing resources for port inspections and passing the Caribbean Arms Trafficking Causes Harm (CATCH) Act. This legislation would provide state and federal authorities with critical information on gun trafficking into the region and help assess which strategies are most effective in curbing gun violence. James emphasised the urgency, stating that "American-made guns are fuelling violence, chaos, and senseless tragedies" across Caribbean communities, according to the Caribbean Media Corporation (CMC).

2️⃣ 🇹🇿 Tanzanian censors media references to killed political dissidents: Tanzania has suspended the online operations of a leading newspaper publisher, Mwananchi Communications, after one of its publications featured an animated advertisement depicting President Samia Suluhu Hassan and alluding to recent abductions and killings of dissidents. The advert, posted on social media platforms X and Instagram by the Citizen, an English-language newspaper. The Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority (TCRA) announced the suspension of Mwananchi Communications' online licences for 30 days, stating the content could potentially harm national unity and social peace. Further regulatory action is expected.