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📰 Oman steps in to prevent war

📰 Oman steps in to prevent war

and Iran’s next move

Billy Robinson
August 16, 2024

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily!

In a whirlwind of global events over the past 24 hours, prospects for a successful Gaza ceasefire appear bleak, Jamaica has declared a state of emergency, and a major Emirati port operator has reported a sharp profit decline amid Red Sea instability.

Meanwhile, Oman is stepping in as a mediator in the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, and a UNESCO report has delivered a scathing critique of women's access to basic rights in Afghanistan.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 Doubt over Hamas’ participation in next round of ceasefire talks: Hamas is unlikely to join the upcoming Gaza ceasefire talks on Thursday, diminishing hopes for an agreement that could prevent anticipated Iranian retaliatory strikes against Israel following the recent assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran. Expectations for the ceasefire talks were already low, with Israel adopting a more rigid stance and concerns that Hamas, now under its most hardline faction, would make minimal concessions. This week, Iran dismissed western appeals to refrain from retaliating for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas' political leader, on July 31. The killing occurred just hours after an Israeli strike in Beirut that killed a senior Hezbollah commander. Hamas claims it has shown flexibility in negotiations, but accuses Israel of not being serious about reaching a ceasefire agreement.

2️⃣ 🇦🇪 🇾🇪 Red Sea instability sees profits plummet for Emirati soft-power instrument, DP World: Dubai-based port operator DP World reported a nearly 60% drop in profits for the first half of 2024, attributing the decline to ongoing attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea by Yemen's Houthi rebels. The company’s earnings fell to $265 million for the period ending June 30, down from $651 million during the same period last year. CEO Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem noted that 2024 has been challenging due to geopolitical tensions and disruptions in global supply chains linked to the Red Sea crisis. Despite these difficulties, he expressed optimism, stating that the company’s solid performance in the first half of the year positions it well for stable full-year results, despite ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

3️⃣ 🇯🇲 Jamaica enters state of emergency after escalation in organised crime: Jamaica's prime minister has declared a 14-day state of emergency in the southern Clarendon parish following two shootings on Sunday that left eight people dead and nine injured. Seven individuals were killed when gunmen opened fire at a birthday party in Cherry Tree Lane, Clarendon. An eighth victim was killed in a separate incident. Among the dead is a seven-year-old boy, and police have confirmed that a one-year-old was injured. The government has not yet detailed the emergency measures, which typically include nightly curfews, extended detention periods without formal charges, and police authority to search properties without warrants. Describing the violence as organised crime and "an act of terror," the prime minister vowed to "leave no stone unturned" and collaborate with international partners to target those overseas who are directing and funding criminal activities in Jamaica.

4️⃣ 🇯🇵 Japanese ministerial visit to World War II shrine offends its East Asian counterparts: On Thursday, Japan commemorated the anniversary of its World War Two defeat with visits by three cabinet ministers to the contentious Yasukuni Shrine, viewed by other Asian nations as a symbol of Japan’s wartime aggression. Defense Minister Minoru Kihara, Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, and Economic Revitalization Chief Yoshitaka Shindo visited the shrine in Tokyo. The shrine honours 2.5 million war dead, including 14 prominent convicted war criminals such as wartime Prime Minister Hideki Tojo. “I would like to express my heartfelt condolences today to all those who sacrificed their precious lives and pay my deepest respect,” Kihara said at the shrine, in comments broadcast on television.

5️⃣ 🇦🇫 🇺🇳 UNESCO report delivers damning critique of Taliban governance in Afghanistan: The United Nations reported Thursday that since the Taliban took power in Afghanistan three years ago, 1.4 million girls have been denied education, putting their futures at risk. UNESCO's report, released on the anniversary of the Taliban's rule, highlights that Afghanistan is the only country where girls aged 12 and older are banned from schooling. This number has increased by 300,000 since April 2023 as more girls reach the age limit. The UN and human rights groups have condemned these measures as "gender apartheid" and demand their immediate reversal.

Major Story

🇴🇲 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 OMAN’S DIPLOMATIC MANOEUVRING TO PREVENT REGIONAL WAR

Oman, renowned for its diplomatic acumen and history of facilitating dialogue between regional adversaries such as Iran and Saudi Arabia, is currently engaged in mediating efforts to alleviate escalating tensions between Iran and Israel. The Sultanate has previously demonstrated its mediation capabilities by brokering an extended ceasefire between Yemen's Ansarallah (Houthi Movement) and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. By leveraging its robust diplomatic ties with both parties and its esteemed reputation as an impartial and credible mediator, Oman is diligently working to de-escalate the threat of regional war, as Tehran reportedly seeks retaliation for the assassination of former Hamas political bureau chief, Ismail Haniyeh, who was attending the inauguration of newly-appointed Iranian president Masoud Pezeskhian.

Officially, Iran and the USA do not engage in direct talks, but they are in contact through intermediaries. According to Die Presse, the Sultanate of Oman is acting as a discreet mediator in this process.

The Middle East is on the brink of a significant escalation. Iran has been threatening Israel with a large-scale attack, and representatives from Tehran frequently warn that Israel is within range of Iranian missiles. Prior to this potential strike, Iran sent a confidential message to the USA, Israel's key ally, stating that while a military strike was imminent, Iran did not seek war. This message was conveyed via Oman.

This occurred in April, and Oman's mediation helped de-escalate tensions between Iran and the US-Israel alliance. Now, Oman might play a crucial role again. Iran intends to strike Israel, citing the humiliation from the recent attack on Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Meanwhile, the USA is bolstering its military presence in the region. As in April, there is widespread fear of a regional conflict.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇧🇩 President Modi issues concern for the security of Hindus in Bangladesh: During his Independence Day speech on Thursday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed concern over the security of Hindus and other minorities in Bangladesh. He voiced hope for a swift return to normalcy in the neighbouring country. This marks the second time within a week that Modi has highlighted the issue of minority security in Bangladesh, following the ousting of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's administration and the establishment of an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. “As a neighbouring country, I understand the concerns about recent events in Bangladesh. I hope the situation there stabilises soon,” Modi said in his address from the Red Fort. This comes after persistent criticism of the Modi administration’s preferential treatment toward Hindu communities in India, at the expense of religious minorities.

2️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇵🇸 Turkish President Erdogan meets with Palestinian Authority leader Abbas: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan welcomed Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Ankara on Tuesday for a two-day visit. The leaders discussed the situation in the Palestinian territories, Israel’s ongoing assault on Gaza, and the potential for a broader regional conflict. Their talks focused on ways to pressure Israel into halting its hostilities, achieving a ceasefire, and advancing the two-state solution. Abbas was greeted at Ankara airport by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. On Thursday, Abbas will address the Turkish parliament, highlighting Israeli violations against Palestinians and the war on Gaza. Erdogan assured Abbas that Türkiye would oppose any attempts by Israel to ignite a regional war and vowed to maintain a constructive and balanced foreign policy. He also declared that Israel would be held accountable under international law for its actions in Gaza.