Geopolitics Daily
Posts
📰 OPEC holds back oil

📰 OPEC holds back oil

and Malaysia-Vietnam tensions rise

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
November 06, 2024

In partnership with

Hello,

Key developments in East Asia and the Indo-Pacific today include escalating tensions between Vietnam and Malaysia over a strategically significant reef in the South China Sea, as well as former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte facing an ICC investigation for mass extrajudicial killings.

Oil prices rose over 2% on Monday after OPEC+ announced a one-month delay to its planned output increase, creating a cautious atmosphere ahead of the crucial U.S. presidential election.

Today's main story examines how the outcome of the U.S. election could influence Washington–Beijing relations.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Settler violence threatens to unravel Palestine’s West Bank: Settler violence in the West Bank, where Israeli settlers intimidate, harm, and sometimes kill Palestinians while destroying property, has reached unprecedented levels. For decades, successive Israeli governments have tolerated this aggression, which surged after the election of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government in late 2022 and intensified following the 7 October Hamas-led attack. Hardline ministers now openly encourage these acts, framing them as self-defence, while settler land seizures continue unchecked. Although the U.S. and EU have sanctioned some violent settlers, these efforts largely ignore the Israeli state’s role in supporting settler expansion. Western governments, acknowledging that settlements contravene international law, could leverage economic and military aid to press Israel on this issue, according to independent observers. Without such pressure, settler violence risks escalating instability in the West Bank, further eroding prospects for Palestinian statehood.

2️⃣ 🇵🇭 🇳🇱 Former Philippines president faces ICC investigation over mass extrajudicial killings: In 2016, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte launched a “war on drugs” that led to the deaths of an estimated 30,000 civilians. Most victims were men from impoverished urban areas, killed in their homes or streets by police or unidentified attackers. Authorities often claimed the killings were in self-defence, but observers alleged police frequently planted evidence to justify the violence. Witnesses reported that victims, often unarmed, were shot multiple times, with some wounds suggesting executions. Duterte is now under investigation by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity, accused of encouraging the killings and granting police impunity. Though he denied authorising extrajudicial killings, he admitted to using a death squad in his time as a mayor, and told the Senate he accepts “full legal responsibility” for the campaign.

3️⃣ 🇩🇿 🇮🇶 🇬🇪 🇨🇾 Algerian, Iraqi, Georgian officials meet in Cyprus to discuss WMD trade security: Senior officials from Algeria, Iraq, Georgia, and beyond are gathering at a specialised U.S.-funded facility in Cyprus to receive expert training on preventing the illegal movement of materials that could be used to create weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The Cyprus Centre for Land, Open Seas, and Port Security (CYCLOPS), now in its third year, has exceeded early expectations. Initially planning for a dozen annual courses, the demand has surged, with over 50 sessions anticipated next year, according to director Chrysilios Chrysiliou. To date, more than 2,000 officials from 20 countries, including Yemen, Libya, Armenia, and Ukraine, have been trained in areas such as radiological and nuclear detection, WMD smuggling methods, and chemical terrorism investigations. This week, Cypriot and Egyptian officials participated in a maritime cybersecurity seminar, led by Sandia National Laboratories.

4️⃣ 🇦🇪 UAE energy summit begins, Abu Dhabi promises production capacity increase: The United Arab Emirates launched its annual oil and gas summit on Monday, signalling plans to boost national energy production amid fluctuating global prices and geopolitical uncertainties as the U.S. presidential election approaches. The Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC) follows last year’s COP28 climate talks, hosted by the UAE, where nearly 200 countries called for a shift away from fossil fuels—a milestone in climate pledges. However, the UAE still aims to expand its oil production capacity to five million barrels per day while simultaneously investing in cleaner energy sources domestically.

5️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇰🇼 🇮🇶 OPEC+ delays output hike: Oil prices rose over 2% on Monday as OPEC+ announced a one-month delay to its planned output increase, setting a cautious tone for a critical week that includes the U.S. presidential election. U.S. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump remain closely contested in polls, with final results potentially delayed after Election Day. At 1324 GMT, Brent crude futures climbed $1.73, or 2.4%, to $74.83 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.79, or 2.6%, to $71.28 per barrel. OPEC+—comprising OPEC members, Russia, and other allies—had planned to lift production by 2.2 million barrels per day but opted to extend the current output cuts through December due to soft demand and recent price declines. The increase was initially postponed from October, reflecting market fragility.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇨🇳 U.S.–CHINA RELATIONS: THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION’S IMPACT

Background

The upcoming U.S. presidential election in November 2024 will see former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris vying for office, each offering a distinct approach to the growing strategic competition with China. Regardless of the winner, the U.S.-China relationship is set to intensify, with significant impacts on global stability and international policy.

The relationship between the U.S. and China, shaped by the next U.S. president, will be crucial for future global stability. Both Trump and Harris share a common interest in a stable, manageable rivalry that avoids catastrophic conflict. Clear communication, thoughtful diplomacy, and restrained military policies will be key for sustaining peace and addressing shared global challenges.

The Importance of Strategic Competition

The escalating rivalry between the U.S. and China is multifaceted, extending beyond simple economic or military competition. As China seeks global influence—particularly in Asia and the Indo-Pacific—the U.S. remains committed to deterring any actions that could threaten Taiwan's autonomy, among other concerns. Washington's view of China as a primary strategic competitor reflects a broader bipartisan consensus, yet the candidates’ approaches vary considerably.

Trump vs. Harris: Different Strategies on China

Trump’s Approach

If re-elected, Trump is expected to focus on economic decoupling, prioritising trade over diplomatic and military alliances. His transactional approach to China places economic gains at the forefront, potentially at the expense of human rights or diplomatic cohesion. However, unpredictability marks Trump’s policy-making, largely due to differing perspectives among his advisors—likely to be elected on a basis of loyalty, as opposed to policy uniformity—leaving ambiguity around how consistently he might manage China-related issues.

Harris’s Approach

A Harris administration would likely emphasise a balanced strategy that builds on the current Biden administration’s policies. Harris' background and values reflect a strong—though selective—commitment to human rights, with a general preference for avoiding actions that could escalate Indo-Pacific tensions. However, a double standard has surfaced between her vocal criticism of China’s human rights record and her more permissive stance on Israel’s rights abuses in Occupied Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen—an inconsistency China’s foreign minister has been quick to highlight. Her approach would aim for a “competitive coexistence” with China, strengthening U.S. alliances while engaging China on shared global challenges like climate change and public health.

Policy Recommendations for Stability

To prevent the U.S.-China rivalry from escalating into open conflict, International Crisis Group suggests that the next administration should consider these steps:

Strengthening Dual Deterrence & Enhancing Military Communications

Maintaining "dual deterrence" is essential to discouraging any Chinese move on Taiwan, while signalling to Taiwan that moves toward independence could destabilise the region. This policy, effective for decades, would benefit from continued U.S. investment in Taiwan’s defensive capabilities.

Increasing communication channels between U.S. and Chinese military leaders can reduce misunderstandings, especially in contested regions like the South China Sea. Establishing robust military contacts could prevent minor incidents from escalating.

Expanding Diplomatic Channels & Avoiding a Cold War-Style Confrontation

Existing high-level channels, such as those between the U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and China’s Wang Yi, have helped manage crises. Expanding these confidential talks to include broader strategic issues—like AI security and arms control—could foster predictability in a competitive relationship.

U.S. rhetoric should avoid framing China as an existential threat. Allies may share U.S. concerns but are unlikely to back any campaign to isolate China fully. A nuanced approach would recognise China’s economic and strategic resilience, preventing an all-out adversarial stance.

Promotion

Pay No Interest Until Nearly 2027 AND Earn 5% Cash Back

Some credit cards can help you get out of debt faster with a 0% intro APR on balance transfers. Transfer your balance, pay it down interest-free, and save money. FinanceBuzz reviewed top cards and found the best options—one even offers 0% APR into 2027 + 5% cash back!

Learn How To Apply Now

Other News

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇺🇳 🇮🇱 Vaccination centre and aid officials targeted in latest Israeli attack on Gaza: Despite an agreed “humanitarian pause” in Israeli strikes, a polio vaccination centre and the vehicle of a UN aid worker were fired upon during a vaccination drive, the UN reported. Catherine Russell, UNICEF’s executive director, noted that three children were injured near the clinic in Sheikh Radwan while polio vaccinations were underway. Russell also reported that a UNICEF worker’s car was struck by a quadcopter, causing damage though the staff member was unharmed but left shaken. Over the prior 48 hours, at least 50 children were reported killed in Jabalia amid continued military activity. The Israel Defense Forces denied involvement in the Sheikh Radwan incident, stating no strikes were conducted there at that time. The campaign aims to inoculate over 100,000 children, though 15,000 remain unreachable, threatening the program’s effectiveness.

2️⃣ 🇻🇳 🇲🇾 Vietnam and Malaysia at loggerheads over South China Sea reef: Malaysia has lodged a complaint with Vietnam regarding its alleged expansion of Barque Canada Reef—a feature in the contested South China Sea—which both nations claim. This escalation marks a rare bilateral dispute outside of China's involvement, highlighting ongoing tensions in the strategically vital waterway, predominantly claimed by China and often resulting in confrontations with the Philippines and sporadic tensions with Vietnam. The Spratly archipelago is particularly contentious, with overlapping claims from China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei, and the Philippines. Malaysia submitted its letter to Vietnam’s foreign ministry in early October but has yet to receive a response, according to two officials who wished to remain anonymous due to the sensitive nature of the issue. The complaint references Vietnam’s alleged artificial expansion of the reef, where significant infrastructure has reportedly been developed, as indicated by satellite imagery analysed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).