Geopolitics Daily
Posts
🗣️ Orban urges Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire

🗣️ Orban urges Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire

and UK election looms

Billy Robinson
July 03, 2024

Welcome back,

Today sees several developments involving China, from its soft power initiatives in the Pacific to tensions with Taiwan and reports of intelligence cooperation with Cuba. Meanwhile, Lebanon-based Hizbollah has announced that it will halt all attacks on northern Israel if a comprehensive ceasefire is achieved in Gaza, while French President Macron calls for de-escalation.

In other news, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is urging a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and the UK's Tory party faces significant losses for their Rwanda deportation policy, if they fail to be re-elected.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇫🇷 Mass exodus of candidates from French election run-off: France's left-wing and centrist parties have strategically withdrawn numerous candidates from the upcoming parliamentary elections to prevent the establishment of the country's first far-right government since World War II. This withdrawal occurred ahead of the final registration deadline for the run-off vote on Sunday. The majority of the withdrawing candidates were either supporters of President Emmanuel Macron or from left-wing factions. Macron, who had called for snap parliamentary elections in June following his party's poor performance in the European elections, faced an unexpected setback. Instead of bolstering his centrist Renaissance party, the move resulted in Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) securing the most seats in the initial round of voting on June 30.

2️⃣ 🇨🇺 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Cuban radar site reportedly abetting Chinese intelligence, says CSIS: Satellite images suggest Cuba is constructing a new radar site capable of spying on the nearby Guantánamo Bay naval base, enhancing its surveillance capabilities, which are believed to be linked to China. Cuban vice foreign minister Carlos Fernandez de Cossio denied any Chinese military interests on the island, accusing the Wall Street Journal of spreading unfounded rumours. Cuba's strategic location makes it ideal for China to gather signals intelligence on the US military. The CSIS described the new site as a "powerful tool" for monitoring US air and maritime activity. While similar sites were common during the Cold War, most have been decommissioned by the US and Russia in favour of advanced technology, though China continues to build such arrays, including in the South China Sea.

3️⃣ 🇭🇺 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban urges Russia-Ukraine ceasefire: During a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday, Orban—a vocal critic of Western military aid to Ukraine—advocated for a swift ceasefire to facilitate peace talks. Orban expressed Hungary's desire to improve relations with Ukraine and offered assistance in modernising its economy as a gesture of goodwill. Zelenskyy, at a joint news briefing, appreciated Orban's visit—the first in over a decade—but emphasised Ukraine's need for a "just peace" after over two years of conflict with Russia. Orban stated he would brief European Union prime ministers on his discussions with Zelenskyy to help guide necessary EU decisions. His visit coincided with Hungary assuming the rotating presidency of the EU, raising concerns within the bloc and Ukraine due to Budapest's relatively warm relations with Moscow.

4️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇮🇱 🇱🇧 Macron urges de escalation between Israel and Hizbollah: French President Emmanuel Macron urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday to prevent an escalation between Israel and Hizbollah in Lebanon. Macron expressed deep concern over rising tensions and emphasised the need to avoid a conflict that would harm both Lebanon and Israel, according to a statement from the French presidency. The two leaders discussed ongoing diplomatic efforts ahead of a visit to Paris by U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein, who is set to meet with Macron’s envoy to Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, following his trips to Israel and Lebanon in June to negotiate a Gaza ceasefire.

5️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Hizbollah will subside attacks on Northern Israel, when Israel agree to a ceasefire in Gaza: Hizbollah's deputy leader, Sheikh Naim Kassem, stated on Tuesday that the only way to ensure a ceasefire on the Lebanon-Israel border is by achieving a comprehensive ceasefire in Gaza. In an interview with The Associated Press, Kassem mentioned that Hizbollah has acted as a "support front" for its ally Hamas during the conflict. He clarified that if the war in Gaza ends, their military support would also cease. However, Kassem noted that if Israel reduces its military operations without a formal ceasefire and withdrawal from Gaza, the situation on the Lebanon-Israel border remains uncertain. He added that he does not believe Israel currently has the capability or intention to launch a full-scale war with Hizbollah but warned that any limited operation by Israel could escalate beyond control.

Major Story

🇨🇳 🇦🇺 🇳🇿 CHINA COMPETES WITH AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND FOR DOMINANCE IN THE PACIFIC

China has donated a presidential building complex in Vanuatu, while Australia and New Zealand have inaugurated an airfield in the Solomon Islands, underscoring the ongoing competition for influence in the Pacific Islands region.

New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters visited the Solomon Islands to officially hand over the $36.55 million airfield in Western Province, funded by New Zealand and Australia. Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele, who attended the ceremony, plans to visit China soon, following his recent trip to Australia on his first overseas visit as prime minister.

Upon his return to the Solomon Islands, Manele announced that his country had requested Australia to fund the recruitment of local police over the next decade to enhance domestic security. He also mentioned that the new government, elected in April, is reviewing its security arrangements with both China and Australia.

In Vanuatu, Hu Chunhua, vice-chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, participated in a ceremony to hand over a presidential office and finance and foreign ministry buildings constructed by China in Port Vila. Meanwhile, Australia's High Commission announced the arrival of a boat donated to Vanuatu's police force to boost maritime surveillance.

China has become the largest external creditor to Vanuatu after a decade of infrastructure development, whereas Australia remains the biggest aid donor. Hu also recently visited Papua New Guinea, the largest Pacific Island nation, which has defence ties with the United States.

"China is committed to developing friendly cooperation with Pacific Island countries, including Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands," said Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning during a regular press briefing in Beijing.

Promotion

If you love our stuff we know you’ll love Ground News! Their platform provides around the clock coverage of global news from all political perspectives.

We can’t recommend their app enough!

(p.s. as we’ve partnered with them - by signing up you’ll be helping to grow this newsletter too! 🤫)

Get Ground News by clicking here ⤵️

Ground News App

Compare Today’s Top News Headlines from Multiple Perspectives: Local, Foreign, National; Left to Right. See What the Other Side Sees. Be Well Informed.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇹🇼 🇨🇳 Taiwan confront China over seized fishing boat: Taiwan has demanded that Beijing release a Taiwanese fishing boat seized by the Chinese coast guard and taken to a port in mainland China. The incident occurred near the Kinmen archipelago, which is controlled by Taiwan but lies close to the Chinese coast. The Dajinman 88 was intercepted by two Chinese vessels late Tuesday, according to Taiwanese maritime authorities. Taiwan dispatched two ships to rescue the vessel but was blocked by Chinese boats and advised not to interfere, leading to a decision to avoid escalating the situation. The Taiwanese coast guard urged Beijing to avoid political manipulation and harm to cross-strait relations, calling for the immediate release of the Dajinman 88 and its six-member crew, which included the captain and five migrant workers.

2️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇷🇼 Tories face huge losses on Rwanda policy, should they lose election: Over £320 million spent by the government on a contentious plan to relocate asylum seekers to Rwanda is likely to be lost if the Conservatives are defeated in Thursday's general election. This amount includes funds allocated for Rwanda's economic development and the scheme's set-up costs, which are non-recoverable if the plan is scrapped. Labour has criticised the initiative as a costly and ineffective gimmick, pledging to abandon it if they win. Instead, they plan to establish a new Border Security Command to combat people-smuggling networks that facilitate Channel crossings.