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📰 Pakistan hikes defence spending

📰 Pakistan hikes defence spending

and Burkina Faso in crisis

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
June 11, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

In today’s developments, Canadian Prime Minister Carney vows a major defence overhaul as Ottawa pledges to end its reliance on Washington, while the UK faces calls to investigate Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces. In the Sahel, challenges persist as Russia and Mali restructure their security partnership, and Burkinabè junta leader Ibrahim Traoré’s escalating repression threatens to fracture the state.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇪🇹 Tigray’s political transition derailed as Getachew aligns with federal narratives: A growing chorus of criticism has emerged over what many view as the co-opted political trajectory of Tigray, embodied in the figure of TPLF stalwart Getachew Reda. A recent article defending his role—Tigray’s Hijacked Transition—has sparked concern for echoing the same federal narratives that long vilified Tigrayans. Rather than offering rigorous analysis, the article frames internal dissent as criminality, misrepresents military dynamics around the Pretoria Agreement, and sidesteps the humanitarian cost of Tigray’s conflict. Critics argue that Getachew’s endorsement of Prosperity Party rhetoric, his new political ambitions, and efforts to delegitimise the TPLF expose a deeper strategy: dismantling Tigray’s organised resistance and self-determination agenda. With rising tensions, selective memory of atrocities, and federal backing for rival factions, the region risks being further destabilised under the guise of reform and reconciliation.

2️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇮🇳 Pakistan hikes defence spending 20% following conflict with India: Pakistan’s government will raise defence spending by 20% for fiscal year 2025–26, following last month’s intense border conflict with India—its most severe since the 1999 Kargil war. The new budget allocates 2.55 trillion rupees ($9 billion) for defence, up from 2.12 trillion, while overall federal expenditure is cut by 7% to 17.57 trillion rupees ($62 billion). The increase includes 742 billion rupees for military pensions and 704 billion for equipment. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif framed the move as a continuation of Pakistan’s "victory" and pledged to outperform India economically. With inflation forecast at 7.5% and growth at 4.2%, the government also committed to IMF reforms, including privatising the national airline. Still, economists caution that structural reforms remain essential to avoid future crises.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 A Palestinian state is not a U.S. policy goal says Huckabee, fuelling fears of ethnic cleansing: U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee has dismissed the viability of a Palestinian state in the occupied West Bank, instead proposing that neighbouring Muslim-majority countries give up land to establish one. Huckabee – a longtime advocate of Israeli settlement expansion and a Trump appointee – suggested that there is “no room” for a Palestinian state in the territories Israel occupies, and that such a state could be created “somewhere different,” including in Saudi Arabia. Framing Palestinians as the responsibility of Muslim states, Huckabee invoked their territorial size, arguing they could “carve out something” for Palestinians instead of pressuring Israel. His remarks mirror Prime Minister Netanyahu’s recent calls for the displacement of Gazans, reinforcing fears in Egypt and Jordan of forced population transfers. Huckabee’s refusal to rule out total displacement signals a dramatic hardening of U.S. policy under Trump’s second term.

4️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 Trump's Crimea stance risks global sovereignty violation domino effect: Donald Trump’s suggestion that Crimea should be recognised as Russian marks a radical departure from decades of U.S. policy and threatens to unravel core principles of international law. By endorsing the seizure of territory through force, Trump legitimises a dangerous precedent that could embolden powers like Israel, China, and Russia to redraw borders under the guise of historical grievance. Such recognition would fracture U.S.–EU unity, destabilise the Black Sea, and undermine efforts to recover occupied Ukrainian regions. It also risks triggering copycat claims globally, particularly in Africa and Eastern Europe, where borders remain contested. Moscow’s argument—that Crimea historically “belongs” to Russia—is both legally unfounded and dangerously revisionist. Normalising this logic invites further aggression and weakens the global order built on sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the rejection of conquest. States must reject Trump’s stance to protect their own borders from similar threats.

5️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇲🇱 Challenges persist as Russia and Mali restructure their security partnership: On 6 June, Russia’s Wagner Group announced its exit from Mali, ending a nearly three-year deployment alongside the Malian army against jihadist insurgents. Wagner claims its mission is complete, yet violence continues and Russia’s military footprint remains—merely restructured. The newly established Africa Corps, a unit under Russia’s Defence Ministry, will assume Wagner’s role, with much of its personnel reportedly drawn from Wagner ranks. While Moscow tightens control following Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s 2023 death, core problems remain. Mali faces difficulty funding the new arrangement amid budget shortfalls, and Russian-backed forces have failed to stem rising insecurity. Recent jihadist attacks in Timbuktu and Bamako underscore the limited impact of military-heavy strategies. Without a political roadmap for dialogue and reconciliation, simply swapping uniforms won’t end Mali’s deepening crisis.

Major Story

🇧🇫 BURKINA FASO’S SPIRAL: TRAORÉ’S REPRESSION THREATENS STATE FRACTURE

A wave of coordinated attacks by Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in early May, including the capture of a military base in Djibo, has underscored the failure of Captain Ibrahim Traoré’s military-only counterinsurgency strategy. The al-Qaeda-linked group, long dominant in rural zones, now appears to be shifting tactics, targeting urban areas with unprecedented intensity. Local analysts warn that if left unchecked, secondary cities could fall, further eroding state control. Traoré’s discourse is laced with anti-colonialism and calls for emancipation from Eurocentric security frameworks and legacy trade agreements that have constrained Burkina Faso’s sovereignty and development. He frequently cites foreign plots against his rule—allegations not without precedent given France’s historic interference in the region. Yet in practice, his security pivot has moved Burkina Faso closer to Moscow, whose counterinsurgency support has proven ineffective against JNIM. Meanwhile, his security policy directives have disproportionately harmed ethnic minorities, deepening social fractures and fuelling grievances that insurgents continue to exploit.

Militarisation and collapse of dialogue

Since coming to power in a 2022 coup, Traoré has sidelined dialogue initiatives and expanded the controversial Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland (VDP), a militia accused of targeting Fulani civilians. Human Rights Watch documented a massacre of over 130 Fulani near Solenzo, part of a broader cycle of ethnic violence that fuels insurgent recruitment and deepens national trauma.

Traoré’s inability to stem jihadist advances has sown discontent within the armed forces. He has arrested officers, restructured the military, and created elite units like the Rapid Intervention Battalions (BIR), ostensibly to fight jihadists but also to coup-proof his regime. Yet loyalty among these units is uncertain, and recent defections suggest a fracturing security apparatus.

Repression reaches the regime’s inner core

In a dramatic escalation, Traoré has begun imprisoning critics and even high-ranking regime insiders. Former ministers, judges, and the brother of the Mossi king have been detained or forcibly conscripted. The Mogho Naba himself reportedly refused to mediate following an alleged coup plot—an act that once would have been unthinkable.

Ethnic hatred and social decay

Observers warn that Burkina Faso’s war is corroding its social fabric. Ethnic demonisation, especially against Fulani communities, is increasingly normalised. “No one is safe,” says one Burkinabè analyst. As jihadist pressure intensifies, so too does internal repression. Without political reform or a shift in strategy, the state risks implosion—from both without and within.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇮🇱 Israel’s navy attacks Yemen’s Hodeidah port: Israeli naval forces struck the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeidah, escalating Red Sea tensions amid ongoing regional fallout from the Gaza war. The Israeli military said the strikes targeted “terror infrastructure” used to transfer weapons, following warnings for civilians to evacuate the ports of Hodeidah, Ras Issa, and Salif. Houthi media confirmed two missiles hit the docks. Defence Minister Israel Katz warned that continued Houthi missile fire would be met with a “powerful response” and possible naval blockade. The Houthis, who resumed attacks after a two-month Gaza ceasefire ended in March, have targeted Israeli airports and vowed further escalation. Previous Israeli strikes hit ports and Sanaa’s airport, intensifying pressure on the rebels, who remain embroiled in a broader conflict despite a 2022 UN-brokered truce.

2️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇸🇩 UK urged to investigate Sudan’s RSF: As Sudan’s devastating war enters its third year, survivors and rights advocates are demanding the UK take action against the UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces (RSF), submitting a 142-page legal dossier to Scotland Yard. The document, compiled by international lawyers and backed by over 100 civil society groups, outlines alleged RSF-perpetrated atrocities — including ethnic massacres, systematic sexual violence, starvation tactics, and looting — particularly in Darfur and Khartoum. Campaigners are urging UK authorities to open a universal jurisdiction investigation and cooperate with the International Criminal Court. With Sudanese victims among the UK’s diaspora and fears RSF members could seek refuge in Europe, advocates say inaction risks emboldening war criminals and permanently silencing survivors. The case could mark a turning point in efforts to end RSF impunity.

3️⃣ 🇨🇦 🇺🇸 Carney vows defence overhaul as Ottawa pledges to end reliance on Washington: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has announced a major defence spending boost, pledging to meet NATO’s 2% target this year—five years ahead of schedule. Warning that Canada’s reliance on the U.S. is no longer sustainable, Carney promised billions for domestic arms manufacturing and Arctic defence, citing growing threats from Russia and China. Only one of Canada’s four submarines is currently operational, and less than half its fleet is battle-ready. Carney also raised concerns over U.S. dominance in weapons systems like the F-35, urging procurement diversification. The announcement, made ahead of Canada’s G7 hosting and NATO’s Hague summit, signals a dramatic pivot toward military self-reliance, with Carney declaring: “We should no longer send three-quarters of our defence capital spending to America.”