Hello and welcome back. 

Today in East Asia, Japan and the Philippines launch defence talks amid mounting tensions in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, China fast-tracks its nuclear expansion with the approval of 10 new reactors. In South Asia, the India-Pakistan crisis escalates.

Today’s lead story examines the urgent need for sanction reform on Libya’s sovereign wealth fund.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇮🇳 Pakistan has credible evidence of possible Indian military strike in the next 24 hours, says minister: Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar warned of credible intelligence suggesting India may launch a military strike within 24 to 36 hours, using the Pahalgam attack as a pretext. India, which blames Pakistan for the deadly assault in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 26 civilians, has granted its military operational freedom, prompting fears of escalation. Cross-border skirmishes have been reported along the Line of Control, while Pakistan claims to have downed an Indian drone. As global actors both countries exchange sharp rhetoric, with Islamabad pledging to defend its sovereignty and India vowing to track and punish those behind the attack.

2️⃣ 🇨🇦 Mark Carney wins Canadian election: Donald Trump’s return to the White House profoundly shifted Canadian politics, with voters unexpectedly re-electing the Liberals in late 2024 despite Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre holding a massive lead just months earlier. Mark Carney, newly chosen Liberal leader, campaigned on resisting Trump’s threats—including steep tariffs and sovereignty-eroding rhetoric—and positioned himself as the candidate most capable of standing firm. In a surprising turn, Poilievre lost his own seat as Canadian voters rallied around Carney’s message, even as his party gained ground overall. With Trump renewing economic pressure, Canada now faces difficult questions about whether it can reduce its reliance on the U.S. or whether, despite political posturing, economic interdependence remains inescapable.

3️⃣ 🇩🇿 🇲🇦 Algeria lays legal groundwork for full-scale wartime mobilisation: Algeria has introduced a draft law that could authorise sweeping nationwide mobilisation during times of war or national crisis, giving the military control over civilians, infrastructure, and the economy. The 69-article bill, presented to parliament on Monday, allows for the requisition of property, control over production, and regulation of borders and movement—grounded in Article 99 of the constitution. Critics argue the law, which imposes harsh penalties for non-compliance and unauthorised information, reflects a broader authoritarian shift justified by claims of “foreign threats.” Though officials say it’s a legal update, its timing amid regional tensions with France, Morocco, and the Sahel has raised questions about Algeria’s intentions.

4️⃣ 🇸🇸 🇺🇳 UN prepares to renew South Sudan peacekeeping mandate: As the UN Security Council prepares to renew the mandate of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), the stakes are high. South Sudan is sliding toward renewed conflict, with rising violence in Upper Nile and severe flooding compounding a deepening humanitarian crisis. Nearly 7.7 million people now face food insecurity, while over a million have been displaced by floods. UNMISS has taken a leading role in linking climate-related threats to security, but this work may be scaled back under U.S. pressure, reflecting President Trump’s climate scepticism. Weakening the mission’s climate mandate now would risk undermining one of the few tools available to address the environmental drivers of South Sudan’s instability.

5️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇪🇺 France under pressure to back EU-LatAm trade deal: France continues to resist endorsing the EU-Mercosur trade agreement, despite pressure from Germany, EU free-traders, and fallout from U.S. tariffs under President Trump. Paris cites unresolved concerns over agricultural safeguards and fears of undermining domestic farmers, insisting the deal lacks adequate protections. While Trade Minister Laurent Saint-Martin hinted at flexibility if “mirror clauses” on production standards are added, EU officials warn reopening negotiations is unlikely. With limited backing to form a blocking minority and growing pressure from French business groups, Paris may soon be forced to choose between maintaining its opposition or accepting compromise to avoid isolation within the EU. 

Major Story

🇱🇾 🇺🇳 FROZEN ASSETS, STALLED GROWTH: WHY SANCTIONS REFORM IN LIBYA CAN’T WAIT

The Libyan Investment Authority (LIA), valued at roughly $70 billion, has been constrained by UN sanctions since the 2011 uprising that toppled Muammar Gadhafi. Though intended to protect Libya’s sovereign wealth during instability, these measures continue to block growth. Nearly half of the LIA’s assets remain frozen, and while the Security Council allowed limited reinvestment of cash reserves in early 2025, deeper reforms are urgently needed.

Crisis Without End

Libya remains mired in political division, with rival governments and no elections in sight. Despite vast oil revenues, ordinary Libyans face poverty and underdevelopment. Concerns over corruption, mismanagement, and competing claims to state institutions have made the Council wary of loosening controls—yet doing nothing risks long-term economic damage.

Time for Realistic Reforms

Sanctions have led to financial losses and decayed asset value. The Security Council should now permit low-risk reinvestments, enable joint management with reputable partners, and press the LIA to meet transparency standards like the Santiago Principles, advises International Crisis Group. Without realistic pathways for reform, Libya’s sovereign wealth will remain stranded, to the detriment of its people.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇨🇳 China accelerates nuclear ambitions with 10 new nuclear reactor approvals: China’s has approved the construction of 10 new nuclear reactors across five coastal provinces—Zhejiang, Guangdong, Guangxi, Shandong, and Fujian—with a combined investment exceeding 200 billion yuan (US$27.4 billion). Eight of these will be Hualong One reactors, each capable of generating around 10 billion kilowatt-hours annually, enough to supply 1 million people. The decision marks the fourth consecutive year of major nuclear expansion, aligning with China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal and reaffirming the country’s position as the global leader in nuclear capacity, with 102 reactors either operational, under construction, or approved. 

2️⃣ 🇯🇵 🇵🇭 🇨🇳 Japan, Philippines begin defence talks in the face of South China Sea tensions: Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced that Japan and the Philippines will begin negotiations on two defense pacts, aiming to deepen security cooperation and uphold maritime stability in contested Asian waters. During talks in Manila with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Ishiba also expressed concern over global economic disruptions caused by U.S. tariffs and Chinese retaliation, pledging to consult with Japanese businesses in the Philippines. The proposed agreements include logistical support for joint training and protocols to protect classified military information. Ishiba reaffirmed opposition to unilateral changes in the East and South China Seas, highlighting Japan and the Philippines’ shared commitment to a rules-based Indo-Pacific.

3️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇮🇳 Pakistan’s Senate passes resolution against India amid rising domestic tensions: Pakistan’s Senate unanimously condemned India following the Pahalgam attack, rejecting blame for the incident and escalating diplomatic measures, including ending bilateral trade and closing airspace. Despite a display of unity between the ruling PML-N and PPP, internal rifts remain over military influence and past support for jihadist groups, reignited by recent public remarks and Gen. Asim Munir’s ideological rhetoric. As opposition leader Imran Khan’s PTI pauses its agitation, both government allies remain locked in a fragile alliance—now tested further by disputes over canal construction on the Indus River. With India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, tensions are growing domestically and regionally, and Pakistan’s ruling coalition must balance national security consensus with deep-seated political rivalries.

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics