Geopolitics Daily
Posts
🇨🇳🇦🇺 Panda diplomacy

🇨🇳🇦🇺 Panda diplomacy

and ANC forms a coalition

Ross Crabtree
June 17, 2024

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily!

Recent geopolitical developments have seen China and Australia engage in panda-diplomacy, while the Israel-Hizbollah front in Lebanon remains tense, mirroring the instability in the Red Sea as Yemen's Houthis launch new attacks.

Cyril Ramaphosa has secured a second term in South Africa. Meanwhile, analysts warn that Sudan faces a humanitarian catastrophe not seen in 40 years unless the conflict abates.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 NATO considers nukes: NATO is considering deploying more nuclear weapons due to growing threats from Russia and China, says alliance chief Jens Stoltenberg. In an interview with The Telegraph, he stressed the importance of showcasing NATO's nuclear arsenal as a deterrent. Stoltenberg mentioned ongoing discussions about readying stored missiles but withheld operational specifics. At NATO headquarters, he warned of the Chinese threat, expressed confidence in the Labour government's support, and defended strategies to secure weapons deliveries to Ukraine. Stoltenberg emphasised that nuclear transparency should be central to NATO’s strategy in an increasingly unpredictable international arena.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 War in Sudan heralds catastrophic famine: Sudan is on the brink of a famine that could surpass any seen since Ethiopia's crisis 40 years ago, US officials have warned. Aid deliveries are being blocked by warring factions, yet arms continue to flow to both sides. While global attention is largely on Gaza, Sudan faces the world's worst humanitarian crisis, edging towards a disaster of historic proportions with minimal media coverage and international concern. The UN's humanitarian appeal for Sudan has garnered just 16% of the required funds. "We need the world to wake up to the catastrophe happening before our very eyes," said Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US ambassador to the UN.

3️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Israel-Lebanon cross-border tensions: The Israeli army announced that its jet fighters struck Hizbollah targets in southern Lebanon in response to a rocket attack on northern Israel by the militant group. According to the army's statement, Israeli warplanes hit a Hizbollah rocket launcher in the town of Yaroun, following the attack on the Avivim settlement. The jets also targeted a Hizbollah weapons depot in Houla and another military infrastructure in Aitaroun. Earlier, 10 rockets had been fired from south Lebanon towards Israel's Metula settlement, triggering sirens in the area. No casualties were reported in northern Israel, while the toll in Lebanon's Southern and Nabatieh governorates is still being assessed.

4️⃣ 🇳🇬 Nigeria receives bumper World Bank loan: The World Bank has approved a $2.25 billion loan for Nigeria to boost revenue and support economic reforms amid a severe cost-of-living crisis. Announced on Thursday, $1.5 billion of the loan will aid millions affected by rising poverty since President Bola Tinubu's administration began a year ago. The remaining $750 million will fund tax reforms and secure oil revenues, which are at risk due to limited production and widespread theft. Tinubu's economic policies, including ending longstanding fuel subsidies and unifying exchange rates, have led to inflation reaching a 28-year high.

5️⃣ 🇿🇦 A second term for Ramaphosa, ANC forms coalition: South African President Cyril Ramaphosa was reelected for a second term on Friday after his party, the African National Congress (ANC), formed a last-minute coalition with a former political adversary. Ramaphosa secured 283 votes in the 400-member Parliament, defeating Julius Malema of the Economic Freedom Fighters, who received 44 votes. This victory was made possible with the support of the Democratic Alliance (DA)—the country's second-largest party—and several smaller parties, following the ANC's loss of its majority in a recent election, reducing its seats to 159. The coalition—described as a government of national unity—unites the ANC with the DA, a historically white-led opposition party and longtime critic of the ANC.

Major Story

🇦🇺🇨🇳 PANDAS FOR AUSTRALIA: CHINESE PREMIER'S ADELAIDE VISIT OFFERS CHANCE FOR REGIONAL DE-ESCALATION

Overview

Chinese Premier Li Qiang yesterday pledged a new pair of giant pandas to an Australian zoo and called for improved relations between Beijing and Canberra.

Li—Chinese President Xi Jinping’s understudy—arrived in Adelaide over the weekend, marking the first visit by a Chinese leader of his rank to Australia in seven years.

Adelaide has been the primary source of wine exports to China since March, when tariffs that had halted the A$1.2 billion (US$793.1 million) annual trade since 2020 were lifted. Li’s visit has focused on revitalising trade and restoring diplomatic ties following a reset in 2022 after nine years of strained relations under Australia's previous conservative government.

China-Australia bilateralism

Relations between China and Australia had soured over several contentious issues: the implementation of laws to prevent covert foreign interference in Australian politics, the exclusion of Chinese-owned Huawei Technologies Co. from the national 5G network due to security concerns, and Australia's demand for an independent investigation into the origins and responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.

In response, Beijing imposed a series of trade restrictions in 2020, both official and unofficial, on Australian exports such as coal, wine, beef, barley, and wood, resulting in an annual economic impact of up to A$20 billion.

Amidst the tense juncture in the Indo-Pacific—with Taiwan at the centre of regional focus—Australia has significantly increased its military spending, including acquiring nuclear-capable submarines as part of its AUKUS trilateral security partnership with the UK and US.

The Chinese Premier’s Adelaide visit marks a diplomatic victory for both sides and represents a notable opportunity for regional de-escalation, with all trade bans lifted—except for Australian live lobster exports. Australian Minister for Trade and Tourism Don Farrell expects that restriction to be lifted soon following Li's visit.

Promotion

If you love our stuff we know you’ll love Ground News! Their platform provides around the clock coverage of global news from all political perspectives.

We can’t recommend their app enough!

(p.s. as we’ve partnered with them - by signing up you’ll be helping to grow this newsletter too! 🤫)

Get Ground News by clicking here ⤵️

Ground News App

Compare Today’s Top News Headlines from Multiple Perspectives: Local, Foreign, National; Left to Right. See What the Other Side Sees. Be Well Informed.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 Washington issues sanctions on far-right Israeli group: The Biden administration announced sanctions on Friday against Tsav 9, the Israeli group responsible for attacking humanitarian aid convoys headed to Gaza. This group, linked to Israeli army reservists and settlers, has been involved in blocking, harassing, and damaging aid shipments. The sanctions are enacted under an executive order on West Bank violence signed by Biden in February. This order, previously used against violent settlers targeting Palestinians and Israeli peace activists, has now led to its fourth round of sanctions.

2️⃣ 🇾🇪 Red Sea escalations: Over the weekend, Yemen's Houthis claimed responsibility for attacking two civilian vessels and a U.S. destroyer in the Red Sea and Arabian Sea. According to Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree, the group launched ballistic missiles at the American destroyer, naval missiles at a ship named Captain Paris, and drones at a vessel called Happy Condor. The attacks were purportedly in support of Palestinians in Gaza. It remains unclear if any of the targets were hit.