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President Lee restores the inter-Korean military pact in a bid to ease border tensions, Germany’s rearmament faces constraints from China’s dominance over critical minerals, and Jordan reintroduces military conscription amid intensifying 'Greater Israel' rhetoric. 

Today, our focus turns to Africa, now at the heart of ISIS’ resurgence.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇳 Opposition protests voter roll revision in Bihar as fears of disenfranchisement grow: India’s opposition parties staged a major protest in New Delhi against a sweeping revision of the voter list in Bihar, warning it could disenfranchise millions ahead of November’s state elections. Police blocked the march and briefly detained several lawmakers, including Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. The overhaul affects nearly 80 million voters and demands documents such as birth certificates or passports—records critics say are scarce in Bihar, one of India’s poorest and least literate states. Opposition leaders argue the measure will disproportionately exclude minorities, particularly Muslims, echoing the divisive 2019 citizenship exercise in Assam. The Election Commission insists the update is routine and necessary to prevent fraud, but nearly 30 million voters remain vulnerable to being struck from the rolls.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🇪🇺 🇷🇺 Trump signals alignment with Putin as Zelensky presses for credible security guarantees: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s latest White House visit, flanked by European leaders, highlighted tentative progress toward security guarantees but also the deep risks of U.S. policy drift. Unlike earlier encounters marked by hostility, the presence of European partners tempered Donald Trump, who has recently echoed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s maximalist demands after their Alaska summit. Zelensky stressed that any deal must embed binding military aid and procurement partnerships, warning against repeating the failures of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. Putin, emboldened by Trump’s posture, now appears to believe Russia could secure permanent control over Donbas. Yet Ukrainians overwhelmingly reject ceding territory, and Zelensky insists constitutional barriers make concessions impossible. Any settlement rewarding Russia’s aggression risks undermining European security far beyond Ukraine.

3️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇸🇳 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 Senegal ends French military presence as Françafrique unravels: In July, France handed over its last two military bases in Senegal, ending a continuous presence that dated back to independence in 1960. The move followed the election of President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who campaigned on sovereignty and rejected the notion of permanent French bases. Senegal thus joins Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, and others in breaking from France’s post-colonial orbit, known as Françafrique. Long criticised as a neocolonial web of military, political, and economic entanglements, Françafrique is now giving way to new alignments: Russia’s Wagner Group in the Sahel, and China’s expanding economic and security footprint. While some welcome greater autonomy, the retreat of French forces risks fuelling instability and forces Paris to rethink its global role.

4️⃣ 🇵🇪 🇨🇴 President Boluarte asserts Peru’s sovereignty over disputed Amazon island: Peruvian President Dina Boluarte visited Santa Rosa Island, declaring it “indisputably Peruvian” amid escalating tensions with Colombia. Singing the national anthem alongside military chiefs and waving flags, Boluarte rejected Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s claim that Peru has no jurisdiction over the territory. The dispute flared after Peruvian police arrested three Colombian men conducting land surveys on the island; Bogotá insists they were authorised workers, while Lima accuses them of violating sovereignty. Petro denounced the arrests as a “kidnapping,” further heightening tensions following a Colombian military flyover and the planting of a Colombian flag by former Medellín mayor Daniel Quintero. Roughly 3,000 people inhabit Santa Rosa, which formed in the Amazon River last century and remains contested despite century-old treaties.

5️⃣ 🇸🇸 🇺🇳 South Sudan faces collapse of peace accord as war in Sudan deepens instability: South Sudan stands at a critical juncture, confronting its gravest crisis since independence. The 2018 peace deal has unravelled following President Salva Kiir’s house arrest of Riek Machar, reigniting mistrust among former belligerents and intensifying succession rivalries. Simultaneously, Sudan’s civil war has spilled over, driving 1.2 million refugees into South Sudan, halting oil exports, and worsening an already catastrophic humanitarian emergency. With 9.3 million requiring aid, 7.7 million acutely food insecure, and sexual violence endemic, the operating environment for UNMISS is perilous. Crisis Group's Africa Director, Murithi Mutiga, addressed the UN Security Council and called on regional actors to press for dialogue and Machar’s reinstatement to salvage the peace process. Without urgent diplomacy, South Sudan risks a relapse into civil war, with climate shocks and funding shortfalls compounding instability and threatening regional security.

Major Story

🇸🇴 🇲🇱 🇧🇫 🇳🇪 AFRICA AT THE HEART OF ISIS’ RESURGENCE

While the world’s gaze drifts between Ukraine, Gaza, and great power rivalries, the Islamic State has undergone one of the most remarkable strategic shifts. Stripped of its proto-state in Iraq and Syria, ISIS has reconstituted itself as a diffuse constellation of insurgencies. The “caliphate” is no longer territorial but ideological, held together by the central leadership’s branding, propaganda, and weekly Al-Naba bulletin. Its local “provinces” now operate with financial and operational autonomy, resilient enough to withstand leadership losses and relocate the epicentre of violence.

Africa’s Fertile Ground

Today, Africa has become ISIS’ undeniable center of gravity. Nearly 90 percent of the group’s claimed global attacks now take place on the continent. The Sahel and Lake Chad Basin form the heartland, where ISWAP offers both violence and rudimentary governance, while ISGS exploits ethnic rifts across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Coups and the withdrawal of Western forces have left fragile states exposed, with Russian mercenaries filling the vacuum. In Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo, ISIS-linked factions exploit marginalisation and state brutality, terrorizing civilians and undermining billion-dollar energy projects.

War Economies and Waning International Response

The strength of these African affiliates lies in their independence. Funding streams now stem from extortion, illicit trade, kidnapping, and looting military stockpiles. These localised war economies have severed dependency on ISIS’ core, granting affiliates the ability to sustain and expand without external support.

Against this backdrop, international counterterrorism has grown distracted and militarised. Tactical raids and drone strikes may kill fighters, but they cannot resolve the deeper drivers of jihadism: kleptocratic governance, corruption, and the absence of economic opportunity. By reducing complex crises to military problems, the global community risks perpetuating the very conditions ISIS thrives on.

The Danger of Complacency

ISIS is no longer seeking capitals, it is embedding itself in neglected villages, borderlands, and local grievances. Without a holistic, Africa-led response that prioritises governance and development over short-term military gains, instability threatens to spread from the Sahel to West Africa’s coastal states. What emerges is not the defeat of ISIS, but the evolution of a “caliphate of the mind,” one harder to confront, and more enduring, than its predecessor.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇰🇷 🇰🇵 President Lee announces restoration of inter-Korean military pact to ease border tensions: South Korea will revive elements of the 2018 September 19 Comprehensive Military Agreement, President Lee Jae Myung said, in a bid to ease hostilities with North Korea. Marking the 80th anniversary of Korea’s liberation from Japanese rule, Lee pledged gradual steps to restore the pact, which had halted drills, live-fire exercises, and guard post deployments along the border before collapsing amid balloon launches and rising tensions. While Lee urged Pyongyang to reciprocate, analysts expect the North to dismiss the move unless accompanied by major concessions, such as U.S. sanctions relief. Lee, a liberal elected in June, has also curbed propaganda broadcasts and activist balloon launches. He will meet Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on August 23 as Seoul seeks pragmatic ties with Tokyo under shifting U.S. trade policies.

2️⃣ 🇯🇴 🇮🇱 Jordan reinstates military conscription amid 'Greater Israel' rhetoric: Jordan has announced the return of compulsory military service, more than three decades after its abolition in 1991. Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah said the move was necessary to ensure youth were prepared to defend the nation, a decision seen against the backdrop of heightened regional instability and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent pledge to pursue a “Greater Israel” vision. Government officials confirmed that the first draft of 6,000 18-year-olds will begin service in February, eventually expanding to 10,000 recruits. The programme will combine military training with lectures on history, economics, and culture, aiming to foster national identity, discipline, and employability. While framed as a defensive measure, some observers argue the policy is also designed to curb domestic discontent and provide temporary jobs.

3️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇨🇳 Germany’s rearmament drive constrained by China’s grip on critical minerals: Germany’s ambition to build Europe’s strongest conventional army is colliding with its deep reliance on Chinese-controlled minerals. Tanks, drones, and jets all depend on rare earths and metals like tungsten, titanium, and gallium—resources overwhelmingly processed in China, which supplies over half of global capacity and up to 86 percent for some defense-critical materials. Berlin has pledged hundreds of billions for rearmament, but analysts warn that without secure supply chains, its defense buildup rests on fragile ground. While Washington treats minerals as strategic assets with reserves and emergency powers, Brussels relies on soft targets under its Critical Raw Materials Act. Lawmakers argue Germany must abandon complacency, invest in domestic extraction, and treat resource dependency as a national security threat.

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics