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Clashes erupt in Tbilisi as protesters accuse the ruling Georgian Dream party of derailing Georgia’s path to the EU; Boko Haram captures a key Nigerian border town; and U.S. National Guard troops are deployed to Chicago amid an escalating federal crackdown.

Our lead story turns to Libya — a geopolitical stalemate mired in endless transition, foreign influence, fragmented power, and the struggle for unity.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Zelenskyy accuses Russia of using shadow oil fleet for sabotage operations: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused Russia of using its so-called “shadow fleet” of oil tankers for reconnaissance and sabotage missions, including launching drones for attacks in Europe. The claim came as Ukrainian drones struck a refinery deep inside Siberia and as fires continued to burn at Crimea’s Feodosiya terminal.

2️⃣ 🇻🇪 🇻🇦 Venezuela seeks papal mediation amid US military strikes: Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro announced that he has appealed to Pope Leo XIV to help safeguard peace as US forces intensify operations against alleged drug-running vessels in Caribbean waters. Caracas has condemned the campaign as a pretext for regime change, warning that Washington’s expanding use of military force risks destabilising the region.

3️⃣ 🇸🇾 Damascus and SDF agree to nationwide ceasefire after violent clashes in Aleppo: Syria’s Defense Ministry announced that it had reached an agreement with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) for an immediate, comprehensive ceasefire across northern and northeastern Syria. The accord comes after violent clashes in Aleppo’s Kurdish-majority districts overnight, sparked by government road closures.

4️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇰🇵 Premier Li to attend North Korea anniversary as China deepens Pyongyang ties: Chinese Premier Li Qiang will visit Pyongyang this week to attend events marking the 80th anniversary of North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party, becoming Beijing’s most senior envoy to the country in over a decade. Incidentally, Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit South Korea for the upcoming APEC summit.

5️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇵🇸 UN commissioner condemns Trump’s Gaza plan as unlawful: UN Commissioner Navi Pillay has sharply criticised US President Donald Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan, saying it sidelines Palestinians from governance and violates international law. Pillay reaffirmed that the UN Commission of Inquiry’s finding of Israeli genocide “still stands,” noting that a ceasefire proposal cannot erase the ICJ’s 2024 ruling declaring Israel’s occupation unlawful. 

Major Story

🇱🇾 🇷🇺 🇹🇷 LIBYA’S ENDLESS TRANSITION: FOREIGN INFLUENCE, FRAGMENTED POWER, AND THE STRUGGLE FOR UNITY

Fourteen years after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya remains mired in division, corruption, and conflict. The country is split between the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) under Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh and the Libyan Arab Armed Forces (LAAF) led by General Khalifa Haftar in the east. Rival militias such as the Rada Force, Stability Support Authority, and 444 Brigade dominate Tripoli, while extremist groups like Ansar al-Sharia, ISIS, and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb exploit the chaos. With neither the GNU nor the LAAF possessing legitimacy or unity, the security landscape is fragmented and volatile.

External Powers and the New Scramble for Libya

Libya has become the stage for renewed great-power competition. Russia, through Haftar, has entrenched itself in the country’s east — deploying troops, financing operations with billions in counterfeit currency, and securing control over oil infrastructure via its Africa Corps. Moscow’s growing foothold on NATO’s southern flank provides leverage over European energy markets and regional politics.

Türkiye, meanwhile, has consolidated influence in western Libya since the 2019 maritime accord, using the conflict to project its “Blue Homeland” doctrine — expanding maritime and energy control across the Mediterranean. Ankara has cultivated ties with both Tripoli and Benghazi to hedge its bets, even re-engaging with Haftar to ensure continued access and influence. This uneasy rivalry between Russia and Türkiye echoes their dynamic in Syria, where they are adversaries on paper, but collaborators in sidelining Western influence.

U.S. and European Stakes

Washington’s retreat from Libya has left a vacuum that regional and global powers have filled. Meanwhile, European states such as France and Italy are preoccupied with migration, counterterrorism, and oil access, often pursuing competing agendas.

The United States retains significant energy interests and an opportunity to help stabilise Libya through a pragmatic, locally driven approach. For a sustainable path forward, the international community should, according to the New Lines Institute, focus on strengthening local governance, reducing reliance on foreign sponsors, and coordinating with European allies to counter Russian and Turkish expansion. Supporting transparent institutions and preparing the ground for credible national elections remain essential to preventing Libya’s partition, and to ensuring that its vast energy wealth serves its people, not foreign patrons.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇬🇪 🇪🇺 Clashes erupt in Tbilisi as protesters accuse Georgian Dream of derailing EU path: Heavy clashes broke out in Tbilisi as police used water cannons and pepper spray to disperse protesters attempting to storm the presidential palace during boycotted municipal elections. Tens of thousands rallied against the ruling Georgian Dream party, accusing it of undermining democracy and steering Georgia away from the European Union.

2️⃣ 🇳🇬 🇨🇲 Boko Haram seizes Nigerian border town as thousands flee into Cameroon: More than 5,000 people have fled northeastern Nigeria after Boko Haram militants captured the border town of Kirawa in Borno state, torching a military barracks, homes, and the district head’s palace. The assault left the town deserted and follows a surge in insurgent attacks by Boko Haram and ISWAP across the region, including the recent overrunning of nearby Banki.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 National guard deployed to Chicago amid escalating federal crackdown: Texas national guard troops have arrived in the Chicago area as part of President Donald Trump’s expanding crackdown on Democratic-led cities, despite a pending lawsuit from Illinois officials seeking to block the deployment.

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics