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In Europe, Czech leader Andrej Babiš returns to power through a far-right coalition, while Brussels’ decision to block an EU loan to Ukraine threatens IMF assistance and investor confidence. Across the Taiwan Strait, Chinese military activity has eased, but cyberattacks against Taiwan have sharply increased.

Today’s lead story shifts to South Asia, where Afghanistan’s renewed alignment with India and escalating friction with Pakistan is reshaping the region’s strategic landscape.

More details below ⤵️

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1️⃣ 🇻🇪 🇺🇸 ‘Maduro’s days are numbered,’ says Trump: US President Donald Trump suggested Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro’s rule is nearing its end amid a growing American military presence in the Caribbean. In a televised interview, Trump said Maduro’s “days are numbered” but dismissed reports of imminent US strikes on Venezuelan targets, calling such claims premature. 

2️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 UN weighs Gaza stabilisation force amid disputes over mandate and leadership: A UN Security Council resolution establishing an international stabilisation force for Gaza is expected within two weeks, though disagreements persist over its mandate — particularly whether the US should lead it, how it will coordinate with a Palestinian police force, and when Israel must withdraw. Continued Israeli strikes have shattered the ceasefire, with 115 Palestinians killed last week, intensifying pressure on the UN and Arab states to prevent Gaza’s descent into chaos.

3️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Brussels blocks EU loan for Ukraine, risking IMF aid and investor confidence: Brussels’ refusal to endorse a proposed €140 billion EU loan for Ukraine, financed by frozen Russian state assets, has jeopardised Kyiv’s chances of securing critical support from the International Monetary Fund. EU officials warn that without the loan, the IMF may withhold its planned $8 billion package, potentially triggering a collapse in investor confidence and worsening Ukraine’s fiscal crisis. With Washington scaling back aid, the EU is under pressure to fill the gap.

4️⃣ 🇲🇲 Myanmar military regains key towns as Arakan Army closes in on final Rakhine base: Myanmar’s military has regained control of several strategic towns along the Mandalay–Muse highway, including Kyaukme, Hsipaw, and Nawnghkio, following months of offensives against the Ta’ang National Liberation Army in Shan State. In the west, the Arakan Army has surrounded the military’s last stronghold in the Rakhine Yoma mountains after capturing key outposts near the Nat Yan Kan base, further tightening pressure on the junta.

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Major Story

🇮🇳 🇵🇰 🇦🇫 AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN, AND INDIA: OLD FRONTIERS, NEW ALIGNMENTS

Few borders are as defined by geography and history as the rugged frontier between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Since 1947, relations between Kabul and Islamabad have been fraught, while India has consistently maintained warmer ties with successive Afghan regimes, whether monarchist, communist, or Islamist. Pakistan’s sponsorship of the Taliban was intended to cement influence and neutralise these tensions; yet, three decades later, Islamabad finds itself in armed clashes with the very movement it helped create, while the Taliban court New Delhi as a counterbalance.

The Weight of History

The enduring rift stems largely from the Durand Line, the colonial border drawn in 1893 that split Pashtun and Baloch communities. Afghanistan never accepted the demarcation and was the sole state to oppose Pakistan’s admission to the United Nations. Decades of Pakistani attempts—from tribal militias to jihadist proxies—failed to produce a compliant regime in Kabul. Even at the height of Islamabad’s control in the 1990s, the Taliban resisted pressure to abandon Pashtun claims or to permanently recognise the border.

Taliban Independence and India’s Re-entry

Since reclaiming power in 2021, the Taliban have asserted Afghan sovereignty, clashing with Pakistan over border fencing, refugee expulsions, and accusations of sheltering the Pakistani Taliban (TTP). Amid rising tensions, Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s visit to India in October underscored Kabul’s recalibration. India, once an unflinching critic of the Taliban, quietly upgraded its Kabul mission to an embassy and resumed humanitarian assistance, signalling cautious engagement so long as Afghan soil is not used by anti-India militants.

Enduring Logic of Geography

For India, Afghanistan offers strategic depth without the burden of proximity; for Pakistan, it remains an existential vulnerability. As Afghanistan rebuilds ties with India and asserts independence from Pakistan’s shadow, the historical geometry of the subcontinent reasserts itself—one where Afghanistan’s alignment with India, and friction with Pakistan, appear not as policy choices but as the enduring logic of geography.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇨🇿 🇪🇺 Babiš returns to power in Czechia through far-right coalition: Czech billionaire and Eurosceptic leader Andrej Babiš is set to return as prime minister after forming a coalition with two extremist parties, pulling Prague sharply to the right. Analysts warn that granting key ministries to openly pro-Russian and pro-Chinese partners could further erode Czech ties with Brussels and deepen the region’s populist bloc alongside Hungary’s Orbán and Slovakia’s Fico.

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇹🇼 Chinese military activity around Taiwan declines, but cyber operations intensify: Chinese military activity near Taiwan fell sharply in October, with Taipei reporting 290 aircraft and 189 naval vessel sightings compared to 407 aircraft in September. Despite the decline, Taiwan’s Defence Ministry warned that Beijing’s frequent drills could quickly transition into real combat operations. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s National Security Bureau recorded a 17% rise in Chinese cyberattacks in 2025, underscoring a continued hybrid pressure campaign.

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